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A month before global climate talks, agreement remains elusive

By - Oct 31,2023 - Last updated at Oct 31,2023

COP28 President Sultan Al Jaber is head of UAE oil giant ADNOC (AFP photo)

ABU DHABI — Nothing has yet been agreed between the nearly 200 countries that will meet at the COP28 climate talks in Dubai, with two days of preparatory talks in Abu Dhabi failing to produce any major breakthrough, participants said on Tuesday.

Around 70 ministers took part in talks on Monday and Tuesday at the Emirates Palace, a luxurious resort in the United Arab Emirates capital Abu Dhabi, to hammer out details before next month’s UN climate summit, the most important since the landmark Paris agreement in 2015.

“The main focus for the moment is clearly the loss and damage fund” for poorer nations hit by climate change, French Energy Minister Agnes Pannier-Runacher told AFP before the talks closed on Tuesday without a deal.

The previous round of negotiations in mid-October also ended in failure, with more talks scheduled from November 3-5 in Abu Dhabi.

Egypt’s delegate to this week’s talks, Mohamed Nasr told AFP “almost 80 per cent of the text” is agreed, while an African negotiator who spoke on the condition of anonymity said that the “real battles” will be fought at COP28.

The agreement to set up a dedicated fund to help vulnerable countries cope with climate “loss and damage” was a flagship achievement of last year’s COP27 talks in Egypt.

But countries left the details to be worked out later.

“I felt there was a lot of goodwill, constructive engagement, big debates and trying to find solutions,” German climate negotiator Jennifer Morgan,told AFP, while admitting there’s still “a lot to do in the next 28 days”.

A series of talks this year have tried to tease out consensus on fundamentals like the structure, beneficiaries and contributors — a key issue for richer nations who want China to pay into any fund.

“We were one or two days away from an agreement,” said a European negotiator on condition of anonymity.

But several disagreements, including on beneficiaries, delayed a breakthrough.

“The United States does not want to put in a penny if China is a potential beneficiary,” the negotiator said.

 

‘Not fit’ for funding 

 

Developing nations are demanding negotiators nail down the fund’s operation, governance, location, contributors and beneficiaries, and a timeline for payouts, at the November 30-December 12 COP28 summit.

But many are sceptical of the willingness of rich countries to establish the fund, even temporarily, through the World Bank, which is “not fit for purpose for broader development issues”, said Michai Robertson of the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS).

Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia does “not want any wording that would expand the list of donors beyond the developed countries”, said the European negotiator.

Even if these hurdles are settled by COP28, it remains to be seen how much money rich countries are willing to supply.

In 2009, they pledged $100 billion of climate finance every year to developing nations, but failed to meet the 2020 deadline. There are hopes that goal will be met this year.

The loss and damage fund is based on voluntary contributions and is not an “obligation”, Pannier-Runacher told AFP after chairing a Tuesday session on the fund.

The French minister said an agreement must be quickly reached to avoid turning the fund into a “pretext” to delay discussions on phasing out of fossil fuels.

 

‘Strong views’ 

 

COP28 will draw up the first official assessment of humanity’s efforts to respect the 2015 agreement and its ambition to limit global warming “if possible to 1.5ºC” since the pre-industrial era.

For the first time, the world is flirting with the limit this year. The global climate, over several years, is considered to have already warmed by about 1.2ºC, accompanied by a procession of natural disasters.

In about 30 years of COP meetings, the only progress on hydrocarbons was a coal-reduction target at COP26, and there have been no decisions on oil and gas.

“I know there are strong views about the idea of including language on fossil fuels and renewables in the negotiated text,” said COP28 President Sultan Al Jaber on Monday, calling on countries to find “common ground”.

In closing remarks on Tuesday he said: “We need to get on with the work. There is no time for delay. We should use every single day between now and the beginning of COP28 to make progress on all the elements.”

In July, Jaber, who heads UAE oil giant ADNOC, said that “phasing down fossil fuels is inevitable” — a statement he has not repeated this week.

A fossil fuel phaseout is already implicit in other commitments, including one to triple renewable energy capacity to 11 terawatts by 2030.

 

Return to Sudan talks brings no respite for Darfur

By - Oct 31,2023 - Last updated at Oct 31,2023

WAD MADANI, SUDAN — Sudan’s rival generals have returned to the negotiating table in Saudi Arabia, but the fighting shows no sign of easing as they wrestle to control the country’s second-largest city.

In six months, the war of attrition between army chief Abdel Fattah Al Burhan and his former deputy Mohamed Hamdan Daglo, who commands the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), has killed more than 9,000 people and displaced nearly six million.

Despite the carnage, neither side has managed to seize a decisive advantage.

In Khartoum, the air force has failed to dislodge the RSF, which still controls the capital’s streets while the army holds the country’s east. 

On Thursday, peace talks resumed in the Saudi city of Jeddah, which Riyadh and Washington said Sunday were aimed only at securing a ceasefire deal and the delivery of humanitarian aid.

“The talks will not address broader political issues,” statements from both the Saudi foreign ministry and the US State Department added.

To break the stalemate at the exact moment negotiations restarted, the RSF claimed it had captured Nyala, the South Darfur state capital and the largest city in the massive western region of Darfur — the RSF’s traditional stronghold.

With much of Sudan’s already fragile infrastructure destroyed in the war, Nyala — with an airport, railway and a key highway intersection — could be essential for resupplying forces in the area.

 

Strategic importance 

 

The paramilitaries have held the Om Dafouq border post with the Central African Republic for the past three months and have reportedly taken control of additional supply routes to Khartoum, 1,000 kilometres to the northeast.

Nyala is also “the largest military centre in the three states of South Darfur, Central Darfur and East Darfur”, a former army officer told AFP, requesting anonymity because he was not authorised to speak to the media.

In taking the city, the RSF would cement its hold on Darfur, where ethnically motivated killings by the RSF and allied militia have triggered a new probe by the International Criminal Court (ICC).

The ICC has since the 2000s been investigating war crimes, crimes against humanity and genocide in Darfur, committed by the forerunner of the RSF, the Janjaweed militia.

Beyond its military strategic importance, Nyala is also the economic heart of Darfur — a region the size of France that is home to around a quarter of Sudan’s 48 million people.

The city “has economic ties with Chad, the Central African Republic and South Sudan, extending even as far as Cameroon and the Democratic Republic of the Congo” which has a consulate in the city, local journalist Ezzeldin Dahab told AFP.

On Thursday, as representatives from both sides met with US and Saudi mediators in Jeddah, the RSF released footage of Daglo’s brother and deputy Abdelrahim Daglo — on whom the United States has imposed sanctions — leading troops into Nyala.

‘Heavy losses’ 

 

The paramilitary force immediately announced the city and its army infantry division had fallen.

However, the army responded that the 16th infantry division had repelled the attack and inflicted “heavy human and material losses” on the enemy.

According to residents, the RSF fighters have spread out across the city.

“RSF fighters are deployed everywhere and we haven’t seen the army since Wednesday,” resident Adam told AFP from the Al Wadi neighbourhood, asking to be identified only by his first name for fear of reprisal.

Ali, who lives in another district of Nyala, said the two forces had held different parts of the city since the war began, and that the RSF “takeover was done in stages”.

After months of skirmishes, the latest stage came last week, when “the RSF attacked the 16th division with 300 armoured vehicles”, an army source told AFP.

Previous US and Saudi attempts to mediate in the war yielded only brief truces, and those were systematically violated.

Analysts said they believed Burhan and Daglo had opted instead to wage a war of attrition, seeking to extract greater concessions at the negotiating table later.

 

Lebanon PM says working to avoid 'war' with Israel

By - Oct 31,2023 - Last updated at Oct 31,2023

Supporters of Hizbollah and allied Palestinian factions in Lebanon lift flags and placards during a protest in the southern city of Sidon in solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza, on Saturday (AFP photo)

BEIRUT — Lebanon's caretaker prime minister said on Monday he was working to ensure his country does not enter the Hamas-Israel war, even as Hezbollah and Israel have been exchanging cross-border fire.

Najib Mikati said he feared an escalation, with the border skirmishes stoking concerns that Lebanon's Iran-backed Hizbollah could launch its own war with Israel.

"I am doing my duty to prevent Lebanon from entering the war" raging further south, Mikati told AFP in an interview.

Cash-strapped Lebanon is facing the possibility of war essentially leaderless, as political divisions have left the country without a president for almost a year, while Mikati has headed a caretaker cabinet for about a year and a half.

"Lebanon is in the eye of the storm," Mikati said.

"I cannot rule out an escalation because there is a race to reach a ceasefire before escalation spreads in the entire region."

Hizbollah and allied Palestinian factions in Lebanon have exchanged fire with Israel almost daily since Hamas’s October 7 assault on Israel.

Iran-backed or affiliated groups have also launched attacks on Israel from Syria, and targeted US forces stationed in Syria and Iraq.

Mikati, who is on good terms with Hizbollah, said he has no “clear answer” about whether war loomed ahead, adding that “it depends on regional developments”.

In 2006, Israel and Hizbollah fought a bloody conflict that left more than 1,200 people dead in Lebanon, mostly civilians, and 160 in Israel, mostly soldiers.

“For now Hizbollah has managed the situation rationally and wisely, and the rules of the game have remained constrained to certain limits,” Mikati said.

“But at the same time I feel like I cannot reassure Lebanese” because the situation is still developing, he added.

Violence on the Israel-Lebanon border has killed at least 62 people in Lebanon according to an AFP tally, 47 of them Hizbollah fighters but also including four civilians, one a Reuters journalist.

Israeli officials have reported at least four deaths, including one civilian.

Nearly 29,000 people have been displaced in Lebanon due to the skirmishes, according to the International Organisation for Migration.

 

Israel says hit military infrastructure in Syria

By - Oct 31,2023 - Last updated at Oct 31,2023

OCCUPIED JERUSALEM — Israeli military said on Monday it carried out air strikes on military infrastructure inside Syria as fears grow that its war against Hamas could spur a broader regional conflict.

Syria's Defence Ministry said Monday Israel struck at around 1:35 am (22:35 GMT) "from the direction of the occupied Syrian Golan, targeting two positions of our armed forces in the Daraa countryside, causing some material losses".

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights war monitor said Israel targeted "an artillery battalion" in Daraa province, in response to shelling on the nearby occupied Golan Heights.

The Britain-based observatory, which has a vast network of sources in Syria, said Hezbollah-linked Syrian and Palestinian groups were behind rocket attacks from the Daraa area.

Concerns are growing about the regional fallout from Israel's war on Gaza's Hamas rulers.

Since the fighting began, there has been a string of attacks on US forces in Iraq and Syria as well as increasing exchanges of fire along the Israel-Lebanon border between the Iran-backed Hezbollah militia and Israeli forces.

American and allied forces in Iraq and Syria have been attacked with drones and rockets 23 times this month, a senior US defence official said on Monday, as regional tensions soar over the Israel-Hamas war.

Washington has blamed the spike in attacks on Iran-backed forces, and American warplanes carried out strikes last week against sites in Syria that the Pentagon said were linked to Tehran.

“From October 17 to October 30, US and coalition forces have been attacked at least 14 separate times in Iraq and nine separate times in Syria,” the official said, referring to members of the international coalition against the Daesh terror group.

The attacks were carried out “through a mix of one-way attack drones and rockets”, and “most failed to reach their targets thanks to our robust defences”, the official told journalists.

The number of attacks in Syria has risen by three since Friday, coinciding with reports of US troops being targeted in that country over the weekend and claims of responsibility from a group calling itself the “Islamic Resistance in Iraq”, which has said it carried out many of the recent strikes.

The Pentagon has previously put the toll from the attacks at 21 American personnel who suffered minor injuries and a contractor who died of a cardiac event during a false alarm.

 

Five killed in West Bank during Israeli raids — ministry

By - Oct 31,2023 - Last updated at Oct 31,2023

Palestinians survey the destruction following an Israeli military raid on the Jenin Palestinian refugee camp, in Jenin, in the Israeli occupied northern West Bank, on Monday (AFP photo)

RAMALLAH, Occupied Palestine — Israeli occupation forces killed five Palestinians in the West Bank on Monday, said health officials in the occupied territory, as violence has escalated amid Israel's war on Gaza.

The Palestinian Health Ministry said four people aged 23 to 28 were killed during the Israeli early morning raid on the northern city of Jenin.

According to the official Palestinian agency Wafa, "more than 100 military vehicles and two bulldozers" took part.

The raid targeted Jenin and its refugee camp, a stronghold of Palestinian armed groups and the target of frequent military incursions.

Another nine people were wounded, a ministry statement said.

Military drones hovered over the area and army snipers were positioned on buildings around Jenin's main hospital, Wafa said.

Part of the hospital's perimeter wall was demolished by armoured military bulldozers.

120 dead in three weeks 

Later Monday, the Palestinian health ministry said a 23-year-old man was shot dead by Israeli forces in Yatta city near Hebron.

The ministry also confirmed on Monday that another 23-year-old man died after being shot by a settler days ago in Ras Karkar, northwest of Ramallah.

The deaths came a day after five Palestinians were killed by army fire during several military incursions into the West Bank.

The health ministry says around 120 Palestinians have been killed in the West Bank since October 7.

The West Bank was already a hotbed of tension before the Gaza war, with frequent Israeli army raids, a surge in attacks by Jewish settlers.

Ground battles rage in Gaza  as concern grows for hospitals

Health ministry in Gaza says death toll hits 8,306

By - Oct 31,2023 - Last updated at Oct 31,2023

A photo taken from Israel's southern city of Sderot shows flares dropped by Israeli forces above the north of the Gaza Strip, on Monday, amid Israeli war on the besieged ebclave (AFP photo)

GAZA STRIP, Occupied Palestine — Ground battles raged inside the northern Gaza Strip on Monday and Israeli tanks were seen on the outskirts of the besieged costal enclave. 

Israel's intensifying land and air campaign since Hamas's October 7 attacks has heightened fears for the 2.4 million civilians trapped inside besieged Gaza.

Gaza's health ministry said Monday that at least 8,306 people have been killed in the Palestinian territory since the start of the war with Israel on October 7.

The ministry said at least 3,457 children were among the dead, as Israel continued to pound the Gaza Strip with air and artillery strikes.

Dozens of Israeli tanks rolled into the fringes of Gaza City, eyewitnesses said, after a night of heavy clashes in nearby areas.

Hamas said its Ezzedine Al Qassam Brigades were engaged in "heavy fighting" with Israeli troops on Sunday inside northern Gaza, where besieged residents were again told to flee.

Concern has surged about the widening humanitarian disaster, with fears centred on Gaza hospitals inside Israeli-mandated evacuation zones where medics warn that many patients cannot be moved.

Columns of Israeli tanks and armoured bulldozers were seen churning through the sand, and Israeli snipers took positions inside emptied residential buildings, in footage released by the army.

Israeli tanks were later spotted on the edges of Gaza City, usually the most densely populated urban area but now emptied of many residents following repeated Israeli evacuation orders.

A witness told AFP the Israeli tanks blocked the strip’s major north-south road and had been “firing at any vehicle that tries to go along it”.

AFP journalists are not inside Gaza City, following Israeli warnings that the territory’s northern areas must be considered a war zone.

Israel has for weeks warned Palestinians civilians to flee the northern half of the Gaza Strip, while also cutting off normal supplies of water, food, fuel and other essentials to the long-blockaded territory.

The United Nations reported on Sunday that civil order was starting to break down after “thousands of people” had ransacked its warehouses looking for tinned food, flour, oil and hygiene supplies.

According to the UN, all 10 hospitals in northern Gaza have received evacuation orders, despite sheltering thousands of patients and about 117,000 of the displaced.

Among those being treated are intensive care patients, infants and elderly people on life support systems.

The head of the World Health Organisation said calls to evacuate Al Quds hospital in Gaza City were “deeply concerning”.

“We reiterate, it’s impossible to evacuate hospitals full of patients without endangering their lives,” Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus wrote on X.

Mohamed Al Talmas, who has taken shelter in Gaza’s biggest hospital Al Shifa, said “the ground shook” there with intense Israeli raids.

 

‘Collective punishment’ 

 

UN chief Antonio Guterres has warned the situation was getting “more desperate by the hour” and warned against the “collective punishment” of Palestinians.

The International Criminal Court Lead Prosecutor Karim Khan warned Israel on Sunday that preventing access to humanitarian aid could be a “crime”.

Limited aid has entered Gaza from Egypt under a US-brokered deal, but its volume has fallen far short of the hundreds of trucks a day aid agencies say are needed.

The UN reported that 33 trucks carrying water, food and medical supplies had entered Gaza on Sunday, bringing to 117 the total that have entered through the Rafah crossing since the resumption of aid on October 21.

UN warns order 'starting to break down' as Israel pounds Gaza

Health ministry in Gaza says more than 8,000 people killed, half of them children

By - Oct 30,2023 - Last updated at Oct 29,2023

A photo taken from Israel's southern city of Sderot shows smoke rising following Israeli bombardment in the north of the Gaza Strip, on Wednesday (AFP photo)

GAZA STRIP, Occupied Palestine — Desperate Palestinians in Gaza burst into aid centres after more than three weeks of siege and bombardment, the UN said on Sunday.

Despite calls for a humanitarian ceasefire, international outrage and the potential risk to hostages held in Gaza, Israel has intensified the war.

Health ministry in Gaza said the Israeli bombardment has killed more than 8,000 people, mainly civilians and half of them children.

Panic and fear have surged inside the Palestinian territory, where the UN says more than half of its 2.4 million residents are displaced and thousands of buildings destroyed.

UN chief Antonio Guterres said the situation was "growing more desperate by the hour" as casualties increase and essential supplies of food, water, medicine and shelter dwindle.

The UN agency for Palestinian refugees, UNRWA, said "thousands of people" broke into several of its warehouses and distribution centres in Gaza, grabbing basic survival items like wheat flour and hygiene supplies.

“This is a worrying sign that civil order is starting to break down,” it said.

Outside a bakery in southern Gaza’s Rafah, Etidal Al Masri was queueing but did not know if she would get bread.

Having been displaced from the northern Strip, Masri lamented that Gazans “must now queue for bread, toilets and even for sleep”.

Communications were down for days after Israel cut internet lines, although connectivity was gradually returning on Sunday.

Mirjana Spoljaric, president of the International Committee of the Red Cross, voiced shock at the suffering in Gaza and urged all sides to de-escalate.

“This is a catastrophic failing that the world must not tolerate,” she said.

A US government official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said 40 more aid trucks may enter Gaza on Sunday and that Israel was committed to allowing 100 to arrive daily.

A Gaza health ministry spokesman said “hundreds” were killed and wounded on Sunday in “unprecedented” Israeli military action.

Israeli fighter jets again dropped leaflets over Gaza City on Saturday, warning residents that the northern area was now a “battlefield” and they should “evacuate immediately”.

After dozens of aid trucks entered the territory in recent days, far below the estimated needs, Hagari vowed humanitarian efforts would expand.

 

Huge queues at Gaza bakeries as war shortages bite

By - Oct 30,2023 - Last updated at Oct 30,2023

Youngsters carry bags of bread as they ride a bicycle in Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip on Saturday (AFP photo)

RAFAH, Occupied Palestine — Etidal Al Masri got up before dawn to reach the bakery in Rafah in the hopes of getting enough bread to feed her relatives who were bombed out of their home.

She waited in line for ages, but by the time it was her turn, the bread had run out.

Masri fled her home in the northern Beit Hanun area to seek shelter at a school run by the United Nations agency for Palestinian refugees (UNRWA) in this southern Gaza town, but has been finding it hard to get basic supplies.

"Because of the chaos, my turn didn't come," she told AFP outside the bakery where huge crowds people come to seek bread as war-torn Gaza struggles with dire shortages of food, water and fuel.

More than half of Gaza’s population, some 1.4 million people, have fled their homes since the war erupted on October 7, with Israel relentlessly bombarding the territory after Hamas fighters surprise attack.

Outside Al Quds bakery in Rafah, an AFP journalist saw hundreds of people waiting.

Mohammed Qaranawi, who is hosting 25 people in his home, said as well as the bombardments, the bakeries were also struggling with a dire lack of fuel.

“You can wait in line for hours and in the end you don’t get a turn to get bread,” he said.

Abdul Nasser Al Ajrami, head of Gaza’s bakery association, said 60 per cent of businesses were out of action.

“We’re struggling to provide flour, gas and electricity,” he said.

“A lot of workers can’t reach bakeries because of the strikes and the risk of death,” he added.

 

Queueing from 5:00 am 

 

Bakery owner Suleiman Al Huli said he had witnessed some of the “most extreme” scenes since the Nakba of 1948, when 760,000 Palestinians fled or were expelled from their homes during the war that accompanied Israel’s creation.

“I feel upset, I can’t give everyone bread. The bakery is hand-operated and produces 30 bundles [of pitta] an hour... this is much less than people need,” he said.

One resident told AFP she had gone to three bakeries since dawn in search of bread.

The UN’s World Food Programme (WFP) has described the conditions as “unimaginably desperate” after Israel cut normal supplies of food, water and power to Gaza, notably blocking fuel.

“WFP was relying on 23 bakeries to feed 220,000 people a day... only two are functional,” spokeswoman Shaza Moghraby told journalists.

While limited aid convoys have reached Gaza, deemed woefully inadequate by the UN, no fuel has been brought in from neighbouring Egypt.

Bakery worker Sami Salman Al Huli said thousands of people tended to gather outside the bakery from as early as 5:00 am (03:00 GMT) in order to get bread.

“We can only cover 300 people and the numbers are several times greater... I try to give people one bundle of bread [to share],” said the 30-year-old.

As well as worrying about the vast needs, Huli also has to contend with the relentless strikes.

“I’m afraid the bakery will be bombed, like bakeries were bombed in Gaza City and elsewhere,” he said.

Hamas says engaged in 'heavy fighting' with Israeli army in Gaza

By - Oct 29,2023 - Last updated at Oct 29,2023

GAZA STRIP, Occupied Palestine — Resistance movement Hamas's armed wing said on Sunday its fighters were engaged in "heavy fighting" with Israeli occupation forces in Gaza after Israeli military deployed more ground forces across the Palestinian territory.

"Our fighters are currently engaged in heavy fighting with machine-guns and anti-tank weapons with the invading occupation [Israeli] forces in northwest Gaza," the Ezzedine Al Qassam Brigades said in a statement.

In an earlier statement the group said two Israeli tanks had caught fire after they were targeted by its fighters, a claim which the army has not confirmed.

Israeli forces continued to pound north Gaza with air and artillery shelling on Sunday evening.

Earlier on Sunday the army said it had increased the number of troops fighting inside the Gaza Strip as it stepped up its war on Hamas in the tiny coastal territory.

Israeli forces had made several smaller-scale ground incursions inside Gaza before, but the current one has been their longest presence in the territory since the latest violence erupted.

 

As Gaza war rages, Iran wary of direct involvement — analysts

By - Oct 29,2023 - Last updated at Oct 29,2023

TEHRAN — Since the Israel-Hamas war broke out, Iran has issued near-daily warnings of a widening conflict to its arch foes Israel and the United States but appears keen to steer clear of direct confrontation, analysts say.

The Islamic republic has lauded the "success" of the October 7 attacks by Hamas fighters that Israeli officials say killed 1,400 people.

Tehran has also condemned as a "genocide" Israel's heavy retaliatory bombardment of the blockaded Gaza Strip, which the Hamas-run health ministry says has killed more than 8,000 people, also mostly civilians.

But, aside from its strong anti-Israel and anti-US rhetoric, which have been at the heart of Iran's foreign policy since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, it remains unclear how far Iran would be willing to go in case of a wider escalation.

Since the outbreak of the Gaza conflict, Tehran has repeatedly declared that it opposes the conflict's expansion to other parts of the Middle East, while also denying involvement in the October 7 attacks.

Western and Israeli leaders have also said there was no evidence Iran was directly involved.

“Iran is not interested in entering this war directly,” judged Iranian journalist and international relations expert Hadi Mohammadi.

Sara Bazoobandi, research fellow at Germany-based GIGA Institute for Middle East Studies, agreed.

“The Iranians made it clear from the outset that they do not want direct involvement or confrontation,” she said.

 

‘Risk of spillover’ 

 

The Iran-backed Hizbollah in Lebanon has issued similar warnings as Tehran and traded cross-border fire with Israel.

Bazoobandi said that “Iran keeps warning about the involvement of Hezbollah and other elements of the so-called ‘resistance front’.

“They have been careful in formulating the wording in these warnings. One of the major reasons is that the threat is quite serious.”

Still, the Islamic republic has cautioned against a full-blown ground invasion of Gaza by Israeli forces which have so far made limited incursions.

President Ebrahim Raisi said on Sunday Israel’s actions “have crossed a red line” which “may force everyone to take action”.

In an interview with Al Jazeera, Raisi said Iran sees it as “its duty to support the resistance groups” but insisted that they “are independent in their opinion, decision and action”.

Bazoobandi said Iran “will not abandon that [anti-Israeli] narrative, but at the same time they have been trying to distance themselves from this crisis, because of the high risk of spillover.

“Iran may see a spillover as a threat to its influence in the region and a potential threat to its territories.”

Iran’s public assertions appear to counter accusations by the United States which blamed Iran-backed militant groups for targeting its troops in Syria and Iraq, wounding some 20 US soldiers.

Washington has recently deployed two aircraft carrier groups into the eastern Mediterranean in a move it says aims to deter Iran and Hezbollah from getting involved in the Hamas-Israel war.

On Thursday, the US military said it had struck two facilities in eastern Syria used by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and affiliated groups.

 

‘High cost’ 

 

Bazoobandi said one of Iran’s main security doctrines has for decades been to “keep the conflict away from its own borders”.

But, “to maintain its position in the region”, Iran “will have to support its proxies during this crisis,” she said. “This might come with a high cost.”

Iran has threatened Israel with a “devastating response” if it were to attack its territory.

Mohammadi believes that Iran is only likely to engage in direct conflict “if Israel attacks the Iranian territory or Iran’s strategic interests in other countries”.

During recent military drills in central Iran, Defence Minister Mohammad Reza Ashtiani warned that “any inconsiderate act against Iran will provoke a strong reaction”.

Bazoobandi said that “the most important aim of Hamas’ surprise attack on October 7, in my opinion, was to humiliate Israel’s security services, and Iran has praised Hamas for this”.

For Iran, she said, “observing this humiliation would suffice, without further escalation”.

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