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Emerging powers rise in IMF as US unblocks reforms

By - Dec 19,2015 - Last updated at Dec 19,2015

US President Barack Obama signs the $1.1 trillion government funding bill into law at the Oval Office at the White House in Washington on Friday (Reuters photo)

WASHINGTON — China, India and Russia will soon speak with a louder voice at the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

After years of opposition, the US Congress has dismantled the final barrier to reforms that will give the emerging-market powers more say in the affairs of the 188-nation global crisis lender.

The IMF reforms are part of a $1.1 trillion spending package approved by Congress on Friday, and signed into law by President Barack Obama.

Adopted in 2010 by the international community, the reforms were expected to take effect in 2012.

But with the United States holding by far the largest share of voting rights at the IMF, Congress' refusal to approve the reforms had held up their implementation, to the consternation of IMF management and members.

The blockage has been a sore point between President Barack Obama's Democratic administration and the opposition Republicans who control Congress.

Republicans had rejected the slightest favourable gesture towards the multinational organisation, the object of some criticism in Washington for its largesse toward Greece.

In recent years, international summits have unfailingly included a pointed reminder about the stalled reform process — seen as all the more frustrating since the United States was among the first countries to call for an IMF overhaul in 2010 amid the global financial crisis.

At the end of their last summit in mid-November in Turkey, the Group of 20 economic powers said in a statement that they "remain deeply disappointed" with the delay in reforms and "we urge the United States to ratify these reforms as soon as possible".

The long stall also led the so-called BRICS — Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa — to set up an economic alternative, launching in July 2014 their own monetary fund and development bank.

The US approval will likely ease their frustrations with the 70-year-old IMF, dominated by the US, Europe and Japan, as well as remove a major headache for the Obama administration.

"The IMF reforms reinforce the central leadership role of the United States in the global economic system and demonstrate our commitment to maintaining that position," US Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew said in a statement.

 

IMF credibility on line 

 

The reforms, however, are crucial for the IMF itself. They double the crisis lender's permanent financial resources, known as quotas, to some $660 billion.

The green light by Congress thus paves the way for the IMF to abandon some makeshift mechanisms it had adopted to keep its finances afloat and finance rescues of members in crisis.

But above all, it allows the Washington-based institution, founded in 1945, to better reflect the current interconnectedness of the world economy, exposed in stark relief during the 2008-2009 global crisis.  

The measures slightly reshuffle the IMF executive board by reducing the representation of advanced economies, particularly in Europe, to give a greater voice to dynamic emerging powers.

Currently China, the world's second-largest economy, has less than 4 per cent of voting rights at the IMF, only slightly less than Italy whose economy is five times smaller.

After the reforms are implemented, China will see its voting rights nearly double to over 6 per cent, the largest gain. For example, India's weight will rise from 2.3 per cent to 2.6 per cent.

The US action also hands a personal victory to the managing director of the IMF, Christine Lagarde, who has been pushing hard for the changes to preserve the credibility of the fund.

Lagarde once joked she would "do belly-dancing" if needed to get US ratification.

"The United States Congress approval of these reforms is a welcome and crucial step forward that will strengthen the IMF in its role of supporting global financial stability," Lagarde said.

Still, the reforms will not resolve all the representation problems at the IMF. With 16.5 per cent of voting rights, the United States remains the largest stakeholder and continues to hold veto power.

"The IMF reforms remove a stain on the institution's legitimacy," Eswar Prasad, a former IMF official, said. "However, the scars caused by the protracted delay in having these reforms ratified and put into operation will not be easily erased.

Also on Friday, The US Congress voted to repeal the 40-year-old ban on exporting US crude oil in an energy policy shift sought by Republicans as part of a bipartisan deal that also provided unprecedented tax incentives for wind and solar power.

The Senate, on a 65-33 vote, approved lifting the ban and providing five-year extensions of tax breaks to boost renewable energy development as part of a $1.8 trillion government spending and tax relief bill.

The House of Representatives passed legislation containing the energy provisions earlier in the day by a 316-113 tally.

The energy deal was hammered out in secret talks among congressional leaders over two weeks.

Senators Lisa Murkowski, a Alaska Republican, and Democrats Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota and Martin Heinrich of New Mexico had worked for more than a year to get the deal.

Democrats who backed the deal asserted that its provisions encouraging renewable energy were important for combating global climate change.

"This is the biggest deal for addressing climate change that we are going to see," Heinrich said in an interview.

Heinrich added that Democrats may not have been able to get a better deal even if they controlled both chambers of Congress, now led by Republicans. Many Republicans have opposed Democratic proposals to address climate change.

Congress, concerned about US dependence on imported oil,  imposed the crude oil export ban after the Arab oil embargo of the early 1970s that sent gasoline prices soaring and contributed to runaway inflation. Arab members of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) imposed the embargo following the US decision to re-supply the Israeli military during the 1973 Arab-Israeli war.

Drillers have said lifting the ban would increase US oil security and give Washington's allies in Europe and Asia an alternative source of crude beyond OPEC and Russia. The bill could benefit oil companies including Exxon Mobil Corp., ConocoPhillips and Chevron.

Opponents of lifting the export ban said the action would harm the environment and could lead to an increase in fiery derailments of crude-carrying trains.

Due to a global glut in oil supplies, lifting the ban is not expected to lead to significant US export shipments for months or even years, but could give crude producers the increased flexibility they coveted.

 

Oil boom

 

Drillers said continuing the ban would choke a boom in shale oil production since 2008 particularly in North Dakota and Texas that has pushed domestic oil prices down from more than $100 a barrel to below $40.

Lifting the ban was "particularly important at a time when our industry is experiencing a period of extreme volatility and uncertainty", Ryan Lance, chairman and chief executive officer of ConocoPhillips, said in a statement.

House Democratic leader Nancy Pelosi and some others in her party had expressed concern that allowing US oil exports would hurt independent refiners by raising the price of domestic crude to international prices.

Tom O'Malley, executive chairman of refiner PBF Energy, said lifting the ban would lead at least one East Coast refinery to shut down, adding that his refineries in New Jersey and Delaware are less exposed.

"This is a crazy thing to do," O'Malley added. "Once you lift it, it's hard to reverse it."

Democrats in the Senate had secured some protections for independent refiners, allowing them to deduct transportation costs for gasoline and other fuels they make.

Pelosi on Friday said Democrats walked away with a victory, in the trade of oil exports for environmental goals.

She indicated that the environmental damage from exporting oil would be offset by 10 times because of measures in the bill such as the renewable power tax credits, funding of a parks conservation fund paid for with oil revenues and the elimination of measures that would have dismantled Obama's clean power rules on power plants.

"Now that we have leveled the playing field, the United States finally has an opportunity to compete and realise our nation's full potential as a global energy superpower," said George Baker, head of Producers for American Crude Oil Exports, a group that formed last year to press lawmakers to open the trade.

At more than 2,000 pages long, the spending portion of the bill funds the government through next September, preventing a shutdown and effectively taking difficult budget disputes off the table as the 2016 presidential campaign enters the primary season.

Most of the US senators running for the White House voted against the bill, including Republicans Ted Cruz and Rand Paul and Democrat Bernie Sanders. Republican Lindsey Graham voted in favour. Republican Senator Marco Rubio, who had been criticised by campaign rivals for missing votes, was absent from Congress on Friday.

Dozens of previously temporary tax breaks will now be permanent under the tax segment of the bill, which will cost $680 billion over 10 years and was promoted by corporate lobbyists and low-tax Republicans.

Middle-class Americans also gain. Students, low-income parents and teachers will receive tax aid, attracting support for the legislation from the White House and congressional Democrats.

"I'm not wild about everything in it," Obama said of the legislation. "I'm sure that's true for everybody. But it is a budget that, as I insisted, invests in our military and our middle class without ideological provisions that would have weakened Wall Street reform or rules on big polluters."

 

Deficit worries

 

Some Republicans worry that the $1.15 trillion spending provisions add to the federal budget deficit and erode the fiscal discipline that House Republicans have championed, particularly since lawmakers aligned with the conservative Tea Party movement did well in 2010 congressional elections.

But Tea Party momentum has slowed as the federal deficit drops from its peak of $1.41 trillion in 2009 due to the economic recovery. The deficit was $439 billion for the fiscal year that ended on September 30.

The congressional Joint Committee on Taxation estimates the legislation passed on Friday will increase the 2016 fiscal year budget deficit by $157 billion and by $95 billion in 2017.

Tim Huelskamp of Kansas, a leading House Republican fiscal hawk, said the bill was "an early Christmas present for Donald Trump", the billionaire businessman seeking the Republican presidential nomination, because it will fuel the anti-establishment mood in the country.

Conservatives complained that Republican leaders agreed on the bill's spending and tax provisions behind closed doors and then rushed the bill through the Senate on Friday morning.

"A rotten process yields a rotten result, and this 2,000-page, trillion-dollar bill is rotten to its core," Republican Senator Tom Cotton of Arkansas said. "Corporate lobbyists had a field day, but working Americans lost out."

Some Democrats criticised the tax cuts, saying they give more aid to large corporations and wealthy business owners than to working families.

 

The largest component of the tax package is the business research and development tax credit, which will cost $113 billion over a decade in lost government revenues.

EBRD, local banks support Ayla Village

By - Dec 19,2015 - Last updated at Dec 19,2015

AMMAN —  The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) announced Saturday in a press sattement that it has  teamed up with Capital Bank of Jordan and Societé Générale Jordan to support the Ayla Oasis project. 

"The EBRD will provide a $60 million loan, while the two commercial banks will contribute $20 million each, for the development of Ayla Village, which will serve as the vibrant hub of Ayla Oasis," the statement said.

"Investments include the construction of a public promenade merging the old centre of Aqaba with the planned souk area as a new meeting place for locals and visitors, offering modern retail and entertainment space," it added.

"Two new hotels will serve locals as well as international visitors and one will be managed by Hyatt International Corporation, a leading global brand in the tourism and hospitality industry. EBRD President Suma Chakrabarti said:“We are proud to support a project that will develop Jordan’s potential as a tourism destination, one of the country’s major assets.

In particular, this will be done in an economically, environmentally and socially sustainable way. We are confident that this investment will help Aqaba become a prime destination on the Red Sea.”

US economy 'source of strength' for others — Federal Reserve chief

By - Dec 17,2015 - Last updated at Dec 17,2015

WASHINGTON — Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Janet Yellen conceded Wednesday the Fed's rate increase could hurt some emerging economies, but that it represents a strong US economy that is good for global growth.

"There can be negative spillovers through capital flows, but remember, there are also positive spillovers from a strong US economy," Yellen said shortly after announcing the Fed's first rate increase in over nine years.

"This action takes place in the context of a US economy that is doing well, and is a source of strength to the emerging markets and other economies around the globe," she added.

After holding its benchmark rate near zero in a crisis stance since December 2008, the Fed increased the rate by a quarter-point to 0.25-0.5 per cent on Wednesday and projected as much as another 1 percentage point climb over the next year.

That can raise borrowing costs for foreign governments and businesses with significant dollar exposure, even as many face slower economic growth.

While the prospects for tighter US monetary policy have already spurred capital outflows and currency falls in many emerging market economies, Yellen said the move was strongly telegraphed.

"I think this move has been expected and well-communicated, at least I hope that it has. So I don't think it's a surprise," she added in a press conference.

"We have made a commitment to emerging-market policy makers that we would do our best to communicate as clearly as we could about our policy intentions, to avoid spillovers that might result from abrupt or unanticipated policy moves," Yellen elaborated.

She noted that many emerging economies are stronger than they were in the 1990s, and are better-positioned to deal with the US policy tightening today.

"On the other hand, there are vulnerabilities there, and there are countries that have been badly affected by declining commodity prices," she said. "So we will monitor this very carefully, but we have taken care to avoid unnecessary negative spillovers."

"With the economy performing well and expected to continue to do so, the committee judges that a modest increase in the federal funds rate is appropriate," Yellen told Journalists after the rate decision was announced. "The economic recovery has clearly come a long way."

The Fed's policy statement noted the "considerable improvement" in the US labour market, where the unemployment rate has fallen to 5 per cent, and said policymakers are "reasonably confident" inflation will rise over the medium term to the Fed's 2 per cent objective.

The central bank made clear the rate hike was a tentative beginning to a "gradual" tightening cycle, and that in deciding its next move it would put a premium on monitoring inflation, which remains mired below target.

"The process is likely to proceed gradually," Yellen said, a hint that further hikes will be slow in coming.

She added that policymakers were hoping for a slow rise in rates but one that will keep the Fed ahead of the curve as the economic recovery continues. 

"To keep the economy moving along the growth path it is on ... we would like to avoid a situation where we have left so much [monetary] accommodation in place for so long we have to tighten abruptly," Yellen elaborated.

New economic projections from Fed policymakers were largely unchanged from September, with unemployment anticipated to fall to 4.7 per cent next year and economic growth hitting 2.4 per cent.

The Fed statement and its promise of a gradual path represented a compromise between policymakers who have been ready to raise rates for months and those who feel the economy is still at risk from weak inflation and slow global growth.

"The Fed is going out of its way to assure markets that, by embarking on a 'gradual' path, this will not be your traditional interest rate cycle," said Mohamed Al Erian, chief economic advisor at Allianz.

Fed officials said they were confident the situation was ripe for them to make a historic turn in policy without much disruption to financial markets, which had expected the hike this week.

Yellen on Wednesday said the Fed had no desire to curb consumers from spending or businesses from investing. She emphasised that interest rates remained low even after the rate hike, near levels economists regard as appropriate for a recession.

"Policy remains accommodative," Yellen said. "The US economy has shown considerable strength. Domestic spending has continued to hold up."

Fed policy makers' median projected target interest rate for 2016 remained 1.375 per cent, implying four quarter-point hikes next year. Based on short-term interest rate futures markets, traders expect the next rate hike in April.

A December 9 Reuters poll showed economists forecasting the federal funds rate to be 1.0 per cent to 1.25 per cent by the end of 2016 and 2.25 per cent by the end of 2017.

The rate hike sets off an immediate test of new financial tools designed by the New York Fed for just this occasion, as well as a likely reshuffling of global capital as the reality of rising US rates sets in.

To edge the target rate from its current near-zero level to between 0.25 per cent and 0.5 per cent, the Fed said it would set the interest it pays banks on excess reserves at 0.5 per cent, and would offer up to $2 trillion in reverse repurchase agreements, an aggressive figure that shows its resolve to pull rates higher.

 

The impact on business and household borrowing costs is unclear.

Global trade talks open with call to fight poverty, diversify economies

By - Dec 15,2015 - Last updated at Dec 15,2015

Kenyan Chuka dancers entertain delegates during the official opening of the tenth WTO ministerial conference in Nairobi, Kenya, Tuesday (AP photo)

NAIROBI — Global trade talks opened Tuesday with host Kenya highlighting their role in combating poverty, and urging African nations to diversify their economies.

War-torn Afghanistan and Ebola-ravaged Liberia are set to join the World Trade Organisation (WTO) as it holds a ministerial conference in the Kenyan capital Nairobi, its first such meeting on African soil.

Leading experts have doubted the  meeting's chances of breathing new life into current trade talks, but Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta still called the gathering "historic and crucial".

"This conference will boost trade and investment, create employment and ultimately contribute to poverty eradication," he said in a welcome message.

He also stressed the need for African countries to diversify their economies.

"National, regional and multilateral policy choices that we make will matter," Kenyatta added. "The choices and positions we take will have consequences."

Security is tight for the conference, with some 6,000 delegates in Nairobi.

 

'Breakthrough seems unlikely' 

 

The four-day Nairobi meeting comes two years after ministers from WTO member countries reached a landmark deal in Bali on overhauling global customs procedures.

The 2013 pact was the first multilateral agreement concluded by the WTO since its inception in 1995, and also the first concrete progress since the Doha round of trade liberalisation talks began. 

"We took 18 years to deliver our first multilateral agreement in Bali, that's way too long, we can't wait another 18 years to deliver again," WTO chief Roberto Azevedo told reporters Tuesday.

But there are few signs that countries will be able build on the momentum gained in Bali to carve out even a limited deal in Nairobi.

"I think if we go out of Nairobi with renewed confidence and with a common vision for the future that will be a fundamental achievement," Azevedo said.

Insiders say negotiators will focus on trying to nail down a partial deal focused on agriculture export competition and trade development in the world's poorest nations, but admit the chances of succeeding are shaky at best. 

 

Agriculture, export subsidy deals? 

 

"It will attempt to deliver on the elusive agreements of the Doha Development Agenda, and deal with controversies over agricultural subsidies and market access for developing countries," the European Centre for Development Policy Management (ECDPM) think tank said.

"However, despite previous efforts, scant progress has been made and a breakthrough at Nairobi seems unlikely," it added.

WTO Deputy Director David Shark was more upbeat, saying it was hoped that deals would be struck on agriculture, export subsidies and food security, and that there would be a debate on the nature of international trade.

"There is a very broad issue that members are discussing: how do we conduct trade negotiations in the future," he said.

"Do we continue in the same vein as we have under the umbrella of the Doha round? Or do we look for new and different ways? That is a very contentious issue amongst our members," Shark added.

Kenyan Foreign Minister Amina Mohammed, who is chairing the conference, has warned that a failure to strike a deal, requiring every member's agreement, would raise questions about the negotiating role of the WTO.

"We will need to either fix it, agree on a new way of negotiating or maybe agree to remove it," she said.

 

Ceremonies for the accession of Liberia are expected to be held on December 16, with the accession of Afghanistan a day later, the WTO said.

CBJ wants banks to obtain audited accounts from clients

By - Dec 14,2015 - Last updated at Dec 14,2015

AMMAN — The Central Bank of Jordan (CBJ) on Monday asked banks in the Kingdom to rely on clients' financial data accredited from a legal auditor.

CBJ Governor Ziad Fariz issued a circular on November 18 to banks related to clients' financial data, aimed at safeguarding the banking system's safety and guaranteeing a sound financial system for banks.

The circular, according to the CBJ, is also aimed at following the best international standards which contribute to improving the business environment and keeping the market's discipline through enhancing banks' efficiency in employing funds.

Such procedures would also enhance the credibility of clients' fiscal data and achieve more justice, transparency and good governance among all stakeholders. 

ACI announces 9% increase in exports

By - Dec 14,2015 - Last updated at Dec 14,2015

AMMAN — Amman Chamber of Industry (ACI) exports grew 9 per cent in the first 11 months of 2015 reaching JD3.8 billion, compared to JD3.5 billion it registered during the same period of 2014.

Chemical industries and cosmetics topped the list of ACI exports during the January-November period with JD893 million, 14 per cent higher than the JD781 million in the same period of 2014.

An ACI report showed that Arab countries imported more than half of ACI exports amounting to JD2.3 billion, compared to JD2.2 billion in the 2014's first 11 months.

Despite the border closure, Iraq was the top country to receive ACI exports with JD546 million, dropping from JD760 million in the same period of 2014.

Saudi Arabia came second with JD517 million, followed by India with JD395 million and the US with JD361 million, ACI data showed. Exports to Syria during the first 11 months of 2015 dropped to JD55 million, 47 per cent lower than the first 11 months of 2014 when they reached JD104 million.

Statistics show a 0.8% decline in inflation rate during 11 months

By - Dec 14,2015 - Last updated at Dec 14,2015

AMMAN — Inflation in the first 11 months of 2015 edged down by 0.8 per cent, compared to the same period of 2014, the Department of Statistics (DoS) announced Monday.

Main item groups that contributed to the drop were transportation, fuel and lighting, beverages and personal objects, a DoS report showed.

An increase in prices during the 11-month period included rents, fruit and nuts, tobacco and cigarettes, and education. DoS also noted that average consumer prices went down by 1.5 per cent in November 2015 compared to November 2014.

DoS started calculating the inflation rate considering 2010, a base year instead of 2006, starting from January 2015 to conform to international classifications and approaches. 

Symposium tackles corporate social responsibility

By - Dec 13,2015 - Last updated at Dec 13,2015

AMMAN — The Jordan Network for the International Covenant (JNIC), in cooperation with the Amman Chamber of Commerce (ACC), Dutch Embassy in Amman and Jordan European Business Association (JEBA), on Sunday organised a symposium on corporate social responsibility (CSR) for developing the society. 

The event aimed at finding a platform to exchange best practices in implementing CSR through combining companies’ strategies and activities with the principles of the international pact of the human rights, labour, environment and anti-corruption.

ACC President Issa Murad highlighted the importance of such symposiums, expressing ACC’s keenness to support the event’s goals in spreading the international pact principles, enhancing companies’ social responsibility and improving cooperation between Jordanian companies and academic institutions.

He also stressed the importance of the private sector’s role in finding development projects that contribute to achieving social and economic stability in communities.

JEBA President Jamal Fariz referred to the importance of developing partnerships between governments and business communities in the field of social responsibility, urging companies and businesses to take into consideration the legal, ethical and social dimensions in decision making.  

JNIC President Mustafa Nassir Ildin called on Jordanian institutions and business community to intensify efforts in applying the UN International Covenant and its vision of creating a comprehensive and sustainable international economy that achieves the interests of individuals, societies and markets.

 

Dutch Ambassador to Jordan Paul van den Ijssel said that Jordanian companies first joined the covenant in 2006 through some big companies, expressing hope that Jordan’s membership would develop to include more companies.

Gulf stocks dive to multi-year lows on oil slump

By - Dec 13,2015 - Last updated at Dec 13,2015

KUWAIT CITY — Share prices in the energy-rich Gulf states tumbled to multi-year lows on Sunday after oil prices closed the week below $38 a barrel, the lowest in seven years.

The slide was led by markets in the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, which plunged below key resistance points amid a sell-off by concerned investors.

Crude prices nosedived Friday, with Brent dropping 4.5 per cent to $37.93 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate losing 3.1 per cent to $35.62 a barrel.

Gulf states, which pump over 18 million barrels of oil per day, heavily depend on crude income for public revenues.

The Saudi Tadawul All-Shares Index (TASI) dropped 2.65 per cent to 6,764.60 points, its lowest close since November 2012. It has lost 18.8 per cent since the start of the year.

TASI, the largest Arab bourse, slid lower during the day but recovered before closing.

The Dubai Financial Market Index dipped 2.1 per cent to finish on 2,882.80 points, a two-year low. The index has dropped 23.6 per cent since the start of the year.

Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange also lost 2.1 per cent to close barely above the 4,000-point mark. It is currently trading 12 per cent lower than at last year's finish.

Qatar exchange, the second largest Arab bourse, shed 3.7 per cent to close at 9,643.65 points, the lowest level since September 2013. It has shed 21.5 per cent compared with last year.

The Kuwait Stock Exchange dropped 0.93 per cent to 5,633.28 points, a three-year low. It has lost 13.8 per cent on the year.

Muscat Securities Exchange slid 0.66 per cent to 5,414.99 points, a 12-month low, while the tiny Bahrain Stock Exchange dropped slightly.

 

Gulf private companies are feeling the heat from government measures to cut capital spending on which they heavily rely.

Dow, DuPont set $130b mega merger, could spark more deals

By - Dec 12,2015 - Last updated at Dec 12,2015

This December 10 photo shows a Dow Chemical plant in La Porte, Texas (AP photo)

NEW YORK — Chemical titans DuPont and Dow Chemical Co. have agreed to combine in an all-stock merger valued at $130 billion in a first step towards breaking up into three separate businesses, a move that pleased activist investors and could trigger more consolidation.

The "deal of three centuries", as Wells Fargo analyst Frank Mitsch dubbed it, combines two of the biggest and oldest US chemical producers and will generate cost and tax savings.

The deal, announced on Friday, will face intense regulatory scrutiny, analysts said, especially over combining their agricultural businesses, which sell seeds and crop protection chemicals, including insecticides and pesticides.

Executives from both companies said the agrichemicals businesses have little overlap and any asset sales would likely be minor.

According to analysts, potential tax savings were one reason for the complicated merger-before-breakup deal.

"They need to merge first in order for the subsequent spinoffs to qualify as tax-free transactions in the United States," said SunTrust Robinson Humphrey analyst James Sheehan.

Dow shareholders would own 52 per cent of the new company after preferred shares are converted, the companies indicated. The agreement includes a $1.9 billion termination fee under specified circumstances, such as rejection by shareholders.

The merger, one of the biggest of the year, would allow Dow and DuPont to rejig assets based on the diverging fortunes of their businesses.

The companies have been struggling with falling demand for farm chemicals due to slumping crop prices and a strong dollar, even as their plastics businesses thrive thanks to low natural gas prices.

Activist investor Nelson Peltz of Trian Partners, who has pressed DuPont to separate its businesses, said he "fully supports" the transaction and sees the combination as "a great outcome for all shareholders".

The chemical majors felt compelled to combine due to a lack of growth opportunities, said Key Private Bank analyst Rob Plaza.

"I think the big catalyst would have been [DuPont Chief Executive Ed] Breen coming in, his track record of extracting value from companies, and the fight that DuPont had gone through with Nelson Peltz," Plaza added. "We may see more consolidation."

 

‘Game-changer’

 

DuPont, which is 213 years old, makes products used in petrochemicals, pharmaceuticals, food and construction. Its brands include Kevlar and formerly Teflon, now part of Chemours Co., which it had spun off.

The 118-year-old Dow makes plastics, chemicals, hydrocarbons and agrichemicals. It manufacturers Styrofoam insulation products and chlorine products, used in paper, pulp and soap. Dow also will assume full control of silicone products maker Dow Corning, its joint venture with Corning Inc.

The three-way split into material sciences, specialty products, and seeds and agrichemicals, is likely to occur 18 to 24 months after the merger deal closes.

Credit rating agency Moody's reaffirmed its A3 rating for DuPont, but changed its outlook to negative, citing among other factors the complexities of combining the agricultural businesses. It kept Dow's ratings at Baa2 and outlook stable.

 

‘Very supportive’

 

The proposed merger puts pressure on rivals such as BASF and Bayer AG to consolidate as falling crop prices curb sales.

"The biggest impact will certainly be in the agriculture market, where the seeds and crop chemical industries are to undergo rapid consolidation," SunTrust's Sheehan indicated.

It could also prompt a renewed flurry of takeover bids for European rivals, with Syngenta AG the most likely target.

Monsanto Co. may take another shot at Syngenta, according to analysts. It abandoned a $45 billion offer for the Swiss company in August.

Monsanto said Friday it would not act rashly and likes its position in the marketplace.

Rivals such as Bayer, BASF, Solvay SA and Eastman Chemical Co. might benefit in the near term while Dow and DuPont integrate, said Nomura analyst Aleksey Yefremov. 

He indicated that the two companies' cultures differ, with DuPont more "research and growth-driven" and Dow focused on tight cost controls and reasonable innovation.

"There is a big execution risk," Yefremov added. "It's a very large transaction."

One DuPont shareholder described the deal as merely "OK".

"Our initial take is, given the commodity nature of Dow's business and the resulting low barriers to entry, the valuation is not obviously attractive," said Grayson Witcher, portfolio manager at Mawer Investment Management Ltd.

DuPont, part of the Dow Jones industrial average, closed down 5.5 per cent to $70.44 on Friday. Dow Chemical was off 2.8 per cent at $53.37. Major market indexes closed down about 2 per cent and posted their biggest weekly losses since August.

 

Regulatory scrutiny

 

US antitrust enforcers will not look at the deal as simply a combination of two conglomerates but examine their many products to determine where competition will be lost. 

According to antitrust experts, regulators will be especially concerned about the agricultural sector, which could see big divestitures.

"It's hard to know whether the fixes would work," said John Taladay of law firm Baker Botts LLP.

Diana Moss, president of the American Antitrust Institute, said there could be problems in dominance of seed sales.

"The [seed] market is already dominated by Monsanto. You're almost creating a duopoly in the market, and that's a problem," she added.

The US Senate Judiciary Committee, which has jurisdiction over antitrust policy, will listen to farmers' concerns, Chairman Chuck Grassley said in a statement.

 

"DuPont and Dow are two titans of American industry and the proposed merger demands serious scrutiny," he added.

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