Business

LONDON — British economic growth slowed sharply last year, dented by global financial turbulence, but showed modest signs of recovery in the final quarter, official data showed Thursday.

Gross domestic product (GDP), the total value of all goods and services produced in the economy, expanded by 2.2 per cent in 2015, down from 2.9 percent in 2014, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) indicated in a statement.

GDP, meanwhile, grew 0.5 per cent in the October-December period compared with the previous three months.

That met market expectations and marked a modest acceleration from 0.4 per cent in the third quarter.

"These figures show Britain continues to grow steadily," said Finance Minister George Osborne. "Despite turbulence in the global economy, Britain is pushing ahead."

"With the risks we see elsewhere in the world, there may be bumpy times ahead — so here in the UK we must stick to the plan that's cutting the deficit, attracting business investment and creating jobs," he added.  

Osborne had warned earlier this month that Britain's economy faced a "dangerous cocktail of new threats" such as falling commodity prices, recessions in Brazil and Russia and rising tensions in the Middle East.

Economists meanwhile warn that this year's outlook is clouded by an expected referendum on whether Britain should leave the European Union (EU).

"The uncertainty surrounding the vote may prompt a slowdown in the pace of hiring and investment, and as such we may see some weaker growth figures around the time of the referendum," said ING economist James Smith.

Prime Minister David Cameron called the referendum after winning last year's general election.

Opinion polls currently point to a slender lead for those who want out of the EU.

Separately, British opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn said this month that he would stop big companies from distributing dividends unless they paid their workers the living wage as part of his proposals to promote fairer working conditions.

Corbyn, a socialist who won control of the Labour Party in September, said too much of the proceeds of growing company profits benefit the wealthiest and called for "pay ratios" to be introduced to help tackle income inequality.

"Only profitable employers will be paying dividends. If they depend on cheap labour for those profits then I think there's a question over whether that's a business model to which we should be turning a blind eye," Corbyn told a socialist conference in London, his first major speech of the year.

Britain has already announced a compulsory “national living wage” of at least £7.2 ($10.26) an hour for people aged over 25 in April, rising to around £9.35 an hour by 2020.

Corbyn's proposals were criticised by a leading employers' group, the Confederation of British Industry (CBI), which said it did not support his idea of intervening in company wages.

"The idea of politicians stepping into the relationship between a private company and its shareholders would be a significant intervention, and not one that we would support," Matthew Fell, CBI chief of staff, added in a statement.

Corbyn, whose election was seen as a major shift back to the political left for the Labour Party, also proposed maximum "pay ratios" between the highest and lowest salaries within companies.

He said Britain's pay inequality was only second to the United States among the Group of Seven (G-7) economic powers.

"Not only is this unfair, it actually holds back growth. A more equal society is not only fairer, it does better in terms of economic stability and wealth creation," he added.

Corbyn's leadership has split Labour lawmakers between his left-wing allies and moderates, some of whom have questioned his ability to lead the party to victory in a 2020 election.

FRANKFURT — Germany's Bundesbank took more than 200 tonnes of its gold back to Frankfurt from overseas last year, the central bank said on Wednesday, as it moves towards hoarding half of the world's second-largest reserve at home.

In the wake of the eurozone crisis, many ordinary Germans want to see more of the 3,381 tonnes of gold in vaults at home and some have even questioned whether it still exists, prompting the Bundesbank to recently publish a long list of gold bars.

Just over 40 per cent of the reserve, which Germany started building in the post-war boom years, is now held underground at the Bundesbank in Frankfurt, while almost the same amount is stored at the Federal Reserve in the United States.

Holding gold reserves abroad is a legacy of the Bretton Woods system of currency management established after World War II. Much of the precious metal stayed there during the Cold War, when the former Soviet Union occupied eastern Germany.

As well as the reserves in the United States another 400 tonnes of German gold are held by the Bank of England. London and New York are centres for gold trading as well as home to two global currencies and, in an emergency, gold stored at those centres could be converted into sterling or dollars.

France, Germany's closest political ally in the eurozone, keeps less than half the amount stored in London and will have none at all by 2020 when half of the overall reserve will be guarded in Germany's financial centre.

The impact of the global financial crisis has been mild in Germany compared with other European countries, but many Germans are suspicious of the euro project after an economic crisis almost fractured the currency, used by 19 European countries.

In uncertain times, gold is considered a safe asset, even though its value has recently fallen.

Proof that it is still in safe hands is important for many Germans. The Bundesbank said all gold bars are "thoroughly and exhaustively inspected and verified" on arrival.

Germany's gold holding, which is valued at roughly $130 billion, is the second biggest in the world, after the United States. The German reserve is roughly twice that of China, according to the World Gold Council, an industry body.

Separately, Germany has lowered its growth forecast for 2016 in the face of an emerging market slowdown that is dampening exports, leaving domestic demand as the sole pillar of support for Europe's biggest economy this year.

Presenting the government's annual economic report, Vice Chancellor Sigmar Gabriel said on Wednesday the economy was in good shape but the government and companies alike needed to beef up investment to keep Germany competitive.

"We're doing well in Germany, but for that to remain the case we need to invest more," Gabriel told a news conference.

In 2015, state spending rose to nearly 30 billion euros  ($32.63 billion), pushing up the public sector investment ratio to 20.45 per cent of gross domestic product, slightly above the international Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development average, he noted.

Still, the government needed to speed up digitisation, do more to promote electric cars and facilitate private investment, Gabriel said, adding that Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble's goal of a balanced budget should not be seen as a dogma.

In its annual economic report, the government expects private consumption and state spending to drive economic growth by 1.7 per cent this year, on a par with the 2015 performance, but below a previous forecast of 1.8 per cent.

The report underlined a fundamental shift in Germany's economy away from a reliance on exports and towards more domestic-driven growth as demand from China and other emerging markets is waning.

Berlin expects imports to rise at a faster rate than exports throughout 2016, meaning net foreign trade is likely to clip off 0.4 percentage points of economic growth.

This is a remarkable development for an economy that for decades has relied mainly on exports to countries around the globe, led by its engineering and auto sectors.

Capital Economist analyst Jennifer McKeown remarked that even a sharp slowdown in China would not be enough on its own to push Germany into recession. 

"But if, contrary to our forecasts, a slowdown in China prompted a more generalised slowdown in global demand, this would hit the German economy very hard," she said.

The shift leaves domestic demand as the sole propellant of growth this year and probably beyond. Berlin expects a rise in consumer spending by 1.9 per cent and spikes in construction investment by 2.3 per cent and of state spending by 3.5 per cent.

Rising real wages, rock-bottom interest rates and record-low car fuel costs due to the plunge in oil prices are giving a strong boost to consumer purchasing powers.

RIYADH — By abandoning the tight rein it held for decades on the oil market, Saudi Arabia launched a battle for control that sent crude prices plummeting.

It has been a painful fight, experts say, but with its vast resources the Gulf kingdom is showing no signs of giving up.

The huge drop in oil prices since mid-2014, from more than $110 a barrel to around $30, followed a decision by the Saudi-influenced Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) not to cut output as it had in the past to keep prices high.

The move came as traditional suppliers like Saudi Arabia were facing increasing pressure from new market players, in particular US shale producers, and aimed to squeeze them out.

It also sought to put pressure on non-OPEC member Russia, the biggest global oil producer, and to force a trimming of output by fellow OPEC member Iran, Riyadh's regional political rival.

As the freefall in prices has continued, calls have grown on Riyadh and its Gulf Arab neighbours to reconsider.

With the market awash in crude, even the chairman of state-owned oil giant Saudi Aramco has said prices have reached "irrational" levels.

But still Riyadh has given no indication of wavering.

"The Saudis are well aware that if they cut production, it will not greatly impact prices because their cut will be replaced by other producers like Iran, Iraq, Russia," said oil expert Jean-Francois Seznec at Georgetown University.

'Protecting market share' 

"The Saudis want producers to suffer enough to agree to a negotiated cut across the board," Seznec added.

Saudi Arabia, the world's second-biggest oil producer and largest exporter, spent tens of billions of dollars in the past two decades to raise its crude production capacity to 12.5 million barrels per day.

It became the only producer with spare capacity, allowing it to raise and lower production to influence the market.

The kingdom boasts the world's second-largest crude reserves, at 268 billion barrels, and sits on the fifth-largest natural gas deposits, at 8.5 trillion cubic metres. 

At less than $10 a barrel, its production cost is also the second cheapest in the world, according to Rystad Energy, a private consultancy.

"Saudi Arabia's main goal is achieving stability in the oil market and protecting its market share," Kuwaiti oil expert Kamel Al Harami said.

"The kingdom could not let high-cost producers compete in its own markets," Harami added.

Saudi Arabia and its Gulf peers in OPEC also have huge fiscal cushions to cope with low oil prices, accumulated in the years when oil prices were high.

So while Saudi Arabia's oil revenues have plunged, leading to a record $98 billion budget deficit for 2015, the kingdom can still count on more than $600 billion in reserves.

"There is no wish to cut production when you have costs lower than the others and ultimately you can resist longer than the others," Patrick Pouyanne, the chief executive officer of French oil giant Total, told AFP during the recent World Economic Forum in Davos.

Producers 'cannot bleed forever' 

"We have scale. We have technologies that have allowed us to maintain our low cost," Aramco Chairman Khalid Al Falih said at the Global Competitiveness Forum in Riyadh this week.

"That is going to be even sharper in a more low-price environment," he added, noting that the company's investments had not slowed down despite the price fall.

In a report on Monday, Jadwa Investment in Riyadh said Saudi Arabia remains the only country with spare production capacity, leaving it "well equipped to hold off any attempts of encroachment on its market share".

So far, Harami remarked, the battle is not yet won.

"Shale oil has proven to be much more resilient than they had initially expected," he said.

But a Western diplomat based in Riyadh said the Saudi oil policy reflects a more assertive attitude under King Salman, who took power a year ago, and is unlikely to be abandoned.

The kingdom will "defend its interests internally and externally" whether that pleases outsiders or not, the diplomat said, speaking on condition of anonymity.

And Seznec said he expects the strategy to start yielding results in the near future.

"I think sooner rather than later there will be an arrangement with non-OPEC producers, who cannot continue to bleed forever," the analyst added.

Separately, the president of Saudi Aramco said on Tuesday  that global crude prices should recover near the end of this year.

"Our prediction is that we will see some adjustment but it will happen toward the end of this year," Amin Al Nasser, president and chief executive officer of the state-owned company, told a business forum in the Saudi capital.

"I think with low oil prices, demand will hopefully also increase... and as such the gap between supply and demand will start closing," Nasser told the Global Competitiveness Forum organised by the Saudi Arabian General Investment Authority (SAGIA).

Nasser said prices will not return to the $100 level, but "it will definitely be better than what we are seeing today."

The price drop led oil-dependent Saudi Arabia to impose unprecedented cuts in its 2016 budget and to push economic diversification.

Authorities are even considering a share listing of Aramco.

A SAGIA official, Abdulmohsen Al Majnouni, told AFP that the kingdom had already been working towards economic diversification even before the dramatic oil price drop.

"But we could have maybe done a better job," he said.

Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman, who heads the main economic affairs council, "is really keen to make this happen", Majnouni said in an interview.

The kingdom is currently focused on three main sectors: transportation, including the $22.5 billion Riyadh metro system; healthcare; and industrial parts and equipment for the kingdom's major corporations including Saudi Aramco, petrochemicals giant SABIC and the Saudi Arabian Mining company, Ma'aden.

Other sectors are also being looked at, such as paints and coatings to serve the kingdom's demand for housing, electrical generation and desalination of water for the desert nation, Majnouni said.

He said SAGIA identified six major investment barriers including the length of time to start a business, and "a major challenge" with cross-border shipment of goods.

"We're working together to overcome this," he said.

An oil industry expert, who asked not to be named, told AFP on Monday that despite high-level talk of diversification, a lack of skills and training is hindering the process.

But Majnouni said the kingdom has set up more than 100 "colleges of excellence" to address specific technical training needs.

He added that over the next five years the skills of members of the workforce "will hopefully be improved".

LONDON — Investors are looking more urgently for buy-to-let (BTL) properties in Britain ahead of the introduction of a tax hike aimed at cooling one engine of the country's housing market.

The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) said demand for new properties hit a three-month high in December 2015 after Finance Minister George Osborne announced a higher rate of tax on the purchase of properties for rental purposes that is due to take effect in April.

RICS said the increase in demand helped nudge its monthly house price balance up to +50 from +49 in November, in line with a Reuters poll of economists, although it remained below a 15-month high reached in August.

The survey's measure of house price expectations reached its highest level since April 2014 and Simon Rubinsohn, RICS's chief economist, said a further heating up of the housing market was likely before April.

"The deadline for the increase has prompted many investors to bring forward buying decisions and contributed to a general increase in buying activity," Jeremy Leaf, a London-based property valuer, indicated in a statement issued by RICS.

British housing prices have risen sharply over the past two years, helped by record-low interest rates, a big increase in employment and a shortage of properties on the market.

Those increases have added to the appeal of BTL for investors who are often individuals who hold at most a handful of homes. Buy-to-let accounted for almost one in four house purchases funded by a mortgage last year, a chunk of the market unseen in other big economies.

Overall there are nearly 2 million private landlords in Britain, owning almost 20 per cent of homes.

But the government is now trying to put a dampener on the sector as it tries to help get more people on the property ladder, one of its main messages to voters.

Osborne announced in a budget statement in November that BTL investors will have to pay a 3 percentage-point higher rate of stamp duty than residential buyers from April.

Separate figures showed gross mortgage lending for 2015 reached its highest level since 2008 at £220 billion ($311 billion), but there were signs of a slowdown in borrowing by house-buyers going into this year.

Britain's Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) said its figures, which are not seasonally adjusted, showed gross lending fell slightly in December.

"Upside potential looks limited over the near-term, as the supply of existing and new properties on the market remains weak, and affordability pressures weigh on activity," CML economist Mohammed Jamei said.

But he noted that the BTL tax changes were "an added element of uncertainty", and some RICS members reported that first-time buyers were holding off in the hope of price falls after April.

As well as the planned tax increase, the Bank of England (BoE) is seeking power to curb lending to the buy-to-let sector. 

Separately, tougher times now lie ahead for Britain's army of small-time landlords after having pocketed some of the most lucrative returns available to investors in recent decades and been a staple of newspapers' personal finance pages.

So-called BTL investors have enjoyed 20 years of surging house price growth and rents, and annual returns of nearly 10 per cent.

Their power is politically sensitive in a country where house prices border on a national obsession, reflecting the fact most people have the vast bulk of their assets tied up in their home. 

Critics argue buy-to-let distorts the market and makes it even harder for ordinary people to get on the housing ladder.

Now the landlords face a double threat. Osborne is squeezing more tax from BTL investments, partly to help fund incentives for new homeowners, while the BoE is seeking powers to limit the size of BTL mortgages in order to reduce risky lending.

A few economists say the changes could even push the overall housing market down later this year.

One landlord who fears he will have to sell is Chris Cooper. The 54 year-old airline steward must retire at 60, and started acquiring buy-to-let properties over 14 years ago in order to boost his pension.

"I'm fuming, to be perfectly honest," he said in his own one-bedroom flat in Windsor, a historic town near London which is dominated by Queen Elizabeth's 1,000-room castle.

"I will either have to raise rents by a ridiculous amount which tenants won't be able to afford, or sell my properties," Cooper added

He owns 15 properties in northern England and around London worth £2.4 million ($3.5 million), financed by loans totalling £1.6 million.

Tenants pay him over £100,000 in rent a year and, after running costs, interest and tax, Cooper makes £12,400. 

But Osborne's cut to the amount of mortgage interest that can be offset against tax, which Cooper plans to challenge in court, will reduce that to £1,000. 

When interest rates rise, which could happen this year, profits will be even thinner.

Heirs of thatcher

Helping new buyers to enter the housing market is a stated priority of Prime Minister David Cameron, whose Conservative Party enjoyed electoral success in the 1980s under Margaret Thatcher by making it easier for renters to buy their own homes.

Home ownership rates in Britain are now the lowest in 30 years at 65 per cent, below the European Union (EU) average of 70 per cent. 

Many Britons blame property investors for making it harder for young people to buy, even if experts say a chronic lack of new home-building is really the main factor.

In a new headache for landlords like Cooper, the BoE said last month that BTL borrowers could be more vulnerable to higher interest rates than normal borrowers. It wants powers to cap the size of BTL mortgages relative to a property's price and rental income, similar to those it already has over residential mortgages.

On the other hand, the squeeze on small landlords could help

ventures like Property Partner, which launched in 2014 to offer alternatives to traditional BTL.

"BTL as a cottage industry is dead," indicated Chief Executive Dan Gandesha. The start-up enables would-be landlords to buy, sell and trade fractions of BTL properties and take advantage of tax benefits available to big investors, as well as spreading their bets across a wider range of properties.

"I don't think the returns on that are quite as good, but those are the sort of options that would make my life easier,"  said Ramzi Hajaj, 26, a technology worker whose family gave him two London investment flats in 2013 which are now each worth about £500,000.

He may invest £700,000 more, but is put off by a 3 percentage point increase in property sales tax on for buy-to-let purchases from April, in addition to other changes that will make it more onerous for landlords to get tax relief on the cost of maintenance and repairs.

Lower returns

Upfront returns on BTL property have already fallen. Property Partner estimates net rental yields in London are 2.5 per cent now, compared with nearly 8 per cent when buy-to-let got going in the late 1990s.

But returns on other assets are lower too. Ten-year British government bonds yield around 1.8 per cent now, down from 7 per cent in 1997.

Small investors are betting instead on more of the house price rises which allowed buy-to-let in England to show average annual returns of over 9 per cent for the past 20 years.

However, low rental yields are putting off major investors such as Grainger, Britain's largest specialist residential landlord. 

Speaking at an industry conference last month, one of its managing directors, Derek Gorman, said new investment in London was hard.

"It is very difficult to get into the London market at prices that are reasonable. So we are looking at the regions," he indicated.

Shortages of construction workers and rising costs, the slow speed of planning approval and the difficulty of building higher density housing in London also delayed construction.

Lack of supply means most economists predict house prices will keep rising, by 5 per cent this year and 4 per cent in 2017, according to a Reuters poll, even if some such as Morgan Stanley see BTL triggering a brief dip.

"My hunch is that demand will rise first before supply catches up," said Simon Rubinsohn, chief UK economist at RICS. "Living costs are going to get dearer."

RIYADH — Saudi Arabia outlined ambitious plans on Monday to move into industries ranging from information technology to healthcare and tourism, as it sought to convince international investors it can cope with an era of cheap oil.

A meeting and presentation at a luxury Riyadh hotel was held against a backdrop of low oil prices pressuring the kingdom's currency and saddling it with an annual state budget deficit of almost $100 billion, the biggest economic challenge for Riyadh in well over a decade.

Top Saudi officials said they would reduce the kingdom's dependence on oil and public sector employment. Growth and job creation would shift to the private sector, with state spending helping to jump-start industries in the initial stage.

"It's going to switch from simple quantitative growth based on commodity exports to qualitative growth that is evenly distributed" across the economy, said Khalid Al Falih, chairman of national oil giant Saudi Aramco.

Over 2,400 people, including local and foreign officials, business, consultants and academics, registered for the event, staged by the government's investment promotion agency.

Commerce and Industry Minister Tawifiq Al Rabiah said Saudi Arabia had been a victim of the "Dutch disease", a condition in which the oil sector had crowded out other parts of the economy, but was now working to correct that.

Under the reforms, parts of the national healthcare system would be converted into independent commercial companies, officials said.

Participants in the conference, including the chief executives of US aerospace firm Lockheed Martin and Pepsico, discussed subjects ranging from how to foster entrepreneurs to ways of developing dynamic cities and increasing the role of Saudi women in the business world.    

Obstacles

The heavy presence of foreign business representatives suggested many saw opportunities in the Saudi strategy. 

Although Riyadh is burning through its foreign assets to cover the budget gap, it still had $628 billion in November, enough to finance years of new projects.

Some participants expressed doubt about the scale of the planned change in a country where about two-thirds of local workers are in the public sector, preferring it to more rigourous private employment.

There is little tradition of entrepreneurship in the world's biggest oil exporter, and financial and legal systems have not been set up to encourage it.

"The transition away from being a rentier state is not a comfortable one," said David Chaudron, managing partner of the California-based Organised Change Consultancy, which works with Saudi companies.

"They're trying. But the fundamental question is: will their trying bear enough fruit before the downside of the current system hits? Or is it a day late and a dollar short? Will the forces of change ultimately be enough to overcome the inertia of the current system? I don't know," he added.

The US ambassador to Saudi Arabia, Joseph Westphal, pointed to risks in administering the plans.

"Saudi Arabia has to have a government system that is adaptable," he said, adding that top officials would need to delegate decisions and authorities would have to be willing to take risks in the recognition that there would be some failures.

Nevertheless, many participants at the conference recognised that strong political momentum had now built up behind the reform plans, many of which had previously been discussed for years without result.

The momentum has increased since King Salman took the throne in January last year and created a powerful Council of Economic and Development Affairs chaired by his son, Prince Mohammed Bin Salman. The government is believed to have hired hundreds of Western consultants to work on the plans.

Falih said that in addition to using its spending to start industries such as shipbuilding, Saudi Aramco would use its extensive educational and vocational training programmes to help create the human capital needed for the transformation.

"Saudi Aramco will be a bridge for a transition away from itself," he indicated.

Earlier this month, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said growth in Saudi Arabia, a heavyweight member of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries,  will slow to its lowest rate in seven years, as oil prices continue their dramatic fall. 

Revising down its last forecast, the IMF predicted that the Saudi economy will grow by just 1.2 per cent in 2016, compared with the 2.2 per cent it estimated in October.

This would be the worst growth rate for Saudi Arabia since 2009, when the economy contracted by 2.1 per cent because of the sharp fall in crude prices due to the global financial crisis.

In its World Economic Outlook Update, the IMF also projected growth in 2017 to be a modest 1.9 per cent, down one percentage point from its October forecast.

Saudi's economy, heavily dependent on oil revenues, grew by 3.4 per cent last year, the IMF noted.

The new downgrade comes after Saudi Arabia posted a record budget deficit of $98 billion last year and projected an $87 billion shortfall for the current year.

The action also comes after the kingdom took unprecedented measures to reduce huge subsidies on fuel products, electricity, water and other services in a bid to boost non-oil revenues and rationalise consumption.

"Lower oil prices strain the fiscal positions of fuel exporters and weigh on their growth prospects," the IMF said.

It said the economy of the whole Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan, which includes oil importers and exporters, is forecast to post higher growth this year and the next but at a slower rate due to conflicts and low oil exports.

The region is forecast to grow by 3.6 per cent this year and the next, down 0.3 per cent and 0.5 per cent, respectively, on October projections. 

The region grew 2.8 per cent in 2014 and 2.5 per cent last year.

"Higher growth is projected for the Middle East, but lower oil prices, and in some cases geopolitical tensions and domestic strife, continue to weigh on the outlook," the fund said.

To finance the deficit, Saudi Arabia withdrew around $100 billion from its fiscal reserves in the first 11 months of last year. The kingdom also issued debt worth around $30 billion.

Riyadh still has reserves of around $630 billion.

The IMF said the price of oil averaged $51 a barrel last year and is projected to be $42 a barrel this year and $48 a barrel in 2017.

The world's largest exporter is currently pumping 10.3 million barrels of crude per day.

MONTREAL/EDMONTON — Foreign investors are snapping up ski chalets and commercial properties in Canada as a drop in the nation's sagging currency in the past two years means their money buys much more.

The bargains are especially attractive in Alberta's resort country, where home prices in the energy heartland have fallen with the price of oil, adding to the 25 per cent drop in the value of the Canadian dollar since 2013.

"Canada is absolutely gorgeous, but I'm on more of a time schedule because the dollar is so bad," said Dave Smith, who owns a New York information-technology business and is looking for an Alberta property. 

"It's crazy not to invest in it now because it's just a matter of time before it bounces back," he added.

While local buyers have disappeared, realtors in the picturesque Alberta mountain cities of Canmore and Banff hope foreign interest can counter the slump in the province, where the unemployment rate has climbed to its highest level since 2010.

"Things dried up significantly until about six months ago, when the dollar started turning," said Christian Dubois of Sotheby's International Realty. "In fairly strong numbers, we're starting to see inquiries coming again."

Dubois indicated that the biggest uptick in interest was from the United States and Britain, returning demand to levels he had not seen since the mid-2000s.

Wealthy foreigners are also buying in the ski country in neighbouring British Columbia, where Asian money is often credited with buoying the Vancouver housing market.

Commercial real estate is benefiting as well, with some investors seeing Canadian properties as an attractive alternative to low bond yields and tumultuous equity markets.

Foreign investment in commercial properties in Toronto hit its highest level last year since 2007 at almost C$1.1 billion ($774.59 million), according to RealNetCanada Inc. data. Of the 39 deals worth C$1 million or more, 90 per cent occurred in the second half of the year, when the currency's decline sped up.

Vancouver is hot as well. European billionaire Klaus-Michael Kuehne is about to acquire the Royal Centre office building for about C$420 million from Brookfield Canada Office Properties, a source familiar with the deal said.

This would be the highest price ever paid for such a property there, industry data shows.

Kuehne's representatives and a Brookfield spokesman declined to comment.

To be sure, some US buyers are treading cautiously after snapping up vacation properties in the early 2000s, when the Canadian dollar hit record lows, only to be forced to sell when the global financial crisis hit.

North of Toronto, where the rich and famous have often boasted the biggest cottages on the best Muskoka lakes, the discounted Canadian dollar also offers another way for US visitors to take advantage: by building up.

"The Americans that own in Muskoka right now are doing massive renovations — complete tear downs or rebuilds," said real estate agent and builder Bob Clarke. "And that's based on the dollar."

TOKYO — Japan's trade deficit narrowed sharply in 2015 as tumbling oil prices took pressure off its soaring post-Fukushima energy import bill, official data showed Monday, while autos led a pick-up in exports.

The deficit decline offered up some good news for Prime Minister Shinzo Abe as he struggles to stoke growth and ahead of a test to his leadership in upper house elections this summer. 

Stronger demand in some key markets, including the United States, and a sharply weaker yen boosted exports from the world's number three economy, the finance ministry indicated.

The figures showed Japan recorded its fifth-straight annual trade deficit, but the latest figure narrowed by 78 per cent from 2014 to 2.83 trillion yen ($23.8 billion).

Auto exports surged 10.3 per cent from a year ago, while the value of crude oil imports dropped 41 per cent.

For December alone, the nation saw a trade surplus of 140 billion yen, returning to the black for the first time in two months.

Japan remains highly dependent on energy imports to power the economy, but a big drop in oil prices over the summer has taken pressure off the cost of its energy needs.

The nation has kept most of its nuclear reactors closed since a tsunami and earthquake triggered meltdowns at the Fukushima plant in 2011. 

The accident forced Japan to turn to pricey imported fossil fuels to keep the lights on, leading to a string of big trade deficits.

"The continued weakening in energy prices is exacerbating the fall in import prices," said Marcel Thieliant at research house Capital Economics.

Abe has pushed to restart nuclear plants, backed by Japan's business community, but the public is sharply divided with many opposed to returning to atomic power.

'Energy question' 

Several reactors have been restarted since the worst atomic accident in a generation.

"The resumption of nuclear power plants had only a very marginal impact on the 2015 trade statistics," said Junko Nishioka, chief economist at Sumitomo Mitsui Banking.

"But if the Abe administration moves forward [on more restarts] in the near term, it would have...further impact towards reducing the trade deficit," he added.

But Nishioka warned that overseas demand, particularly in China, was at risk in the face of a struggling global economy.

"Given the market turmoil, it will likely dampen business confidence," Nishioka said.

Falling oil prices have also depressed oil-related investment in the United States, denting demand for Japanese construction machinery, said Junichi Makino, chief economist at SMBC Nikko Securities.

"Looking forward, automobile demand is expected to stay solid, while a pickup is expected for electronics," Makino added. "But a downside risk remains with general machinery."

The trade figures come as economists look to next month's release of gross domestic product figures for the final quarter of 2015.

Revised data showed Japan's economy grew a stronger-than-expected 0.3 per cent in the July-September period, after initial estimates had showed a contraction.

Japan's economy fell into a brief recession in 2014 after consumers tightened their belts as Tokyo hiked the country's consumption tax to help pay down a massive national debt.

That downturn spurred the Bank of Japan to sharply increase its massive asset-buying programme, a cornerstone of Abenomics, effectively printing money to spur lending.

The bank holds a meeting this week with speculation rising that policymakers may unleash another round of easing to counter weakness in the economy.

SYDNEY/LONDON — Global insurance firms are circling Iran for business opportunities following the lifting of sanctions, and the first test of their appetite could come in March when some Iranian companies seek new cover.

Insurers, the reinsurers that share their risk and the brokers that forge deals are exploring ways to tap a market worth $7.4 billion in premiums after a nuclear accord between world powers and Tehran led to the removal of restrictions on financial dealings with Iran this month.

Allianz, Zurich Insurance, Hannover Re  and RSA, for example, said in recent days that they would evaluate potential opportunities in the country.

Insurance and reinsurance specialists regard the marine and energy sectors as among those offering the best opportunities in oil-producing Iran. 

Alongside commercial cover, life insurance is a potential growth area as it represents less than a tenth of overall Iranian premiums, compared with more than half globally.

At first, international companies are likely to link up with Iranian firms to capitalise on their local knowledge and to reinsure local insurance in the international market, according to industry experts, with international brokers helping foreign firms get that business.

American insurance industry players are still banned from doing business in Iran, however, due to separate US sanctions that remain in place.

The insurance contracts of some Iranian companies expire when the Persian calendar year ends in late March, similar to the January renewal season in Western countries, and they will be looking to strike new agreements. This could include insurance firms themselves seeking new reinsurance cover.

Mohammad Asoudeh, vice chairman and managing director of Iranian Reinsurance Co., told Reuters he had already been contacted by foreign insurance players looking to forge tie-ups with his company and enter the market.

"They have been waiting for implementation day," said the 30-year industry veteran, referring to the day this month when the UN atomic agency confirmed Tehran had met its commitments under the nuclear deal. 

"We have had enough visits [from foreign firms]... resuming business could be quick but will depend on the terms and conditions they offer us," he added. "There are some market renewal dates in two months' time. This will be a good point to start."

Sasan Soltani, regional business development manager at Dubai-based but majority Iranian-owned Iran Insurance Company, said his firm had also been approached about tie-ups by British and Japanese brokers and insurers.

Hurdles remain

Foreign players have been awaiting the lifting of sanctions for months; eight out of 11 established Western and Middle East insurance and reinsurance firms who responded to Reuters questions last year said Iran was an attractive market, especially in the marine and energy sectors.

However despite the lifting of sanctions, hurdles still remain which are making companies cautious about a speedy entry.

The US curbs still in place exclude American nationals, banks and insurance industry players from trading with Iran including dollar business, so concerns remain on whether other foreign insurers can transact without the risk of penalties.

London-headquartered United Insurance Brokers (UIB) said it was active in Iranian reinsurance before the imposition of international sanctions and planned to reopen its Tehran office "as soon as we can", according to Chairman Bassem Kabban.

"Under the sanctions we ceased to operate, but we have maintained the salaries of our people there for the past five and a half years," said Kabban, adding that firms could be wary due to concerns about having US shareholders or subsidiaries.

"People will be very careful what to do. If they are not sure, they would rather not do it," he elaborated.

He indicated, though, that French and Japanese players were likely to be quickest off the blocks in providing reinsurance as they had large presences in Iran in the past, noting that sectors such as aviation, power generation and energy would require large amounts of cover.

Reinsurers help insurers shoulder the burden of large losses in return for a proportion of the premiums.

Another London-based broker said his firm had decided against opening an office in Tehran for now, preferring not to take the risk of being a "front runner".

While Iran has 27 direct insurance companies and two reinsurance firms, most established in the last 10 years, they lack international credit ratings because they have been shut out of markets.

This could also deter foreign firms and their penalty-wary compliance departments from doing business with them.

Iranian Reinsurance Co. is now working to obtain a rating and has held discussions with two rating agencies for this purpose, said Asoudeh, declining to name them.

"Because of sanctions they couldn't price it, so this is first in our agenda. Several insurance companies in Iran are also waiting to be rated," he added.

Currently around 4 per cent of total Iranian insurance premiums are ceded to reinsurers, which would amount to an estimated $300 million of reinsurance business in the country, Asoudeh indicated. 

Reinsurance volumes are expected to pick up with wider access to foreign players, he remarked.

AMMAN — A total of 8,073 new institutions, mostly  Jordanian, joined the Amman Chamber of Commerce (ACC) in 2015, compared to 8,166 institutions in 2014. Their total capital investment last year was nearly JD239 million, spread over 46 nationalities, compared to JD1.3 billion in 2014.

Jordanians invested JD102 million capital, 79 per cent of the total, followed by Iraqis who invested JD6.3 million (5 per cent) and Syrians who contributed JD5.8 million (4 per cent). There were 7,196 partners in the new companies, 6,769 of whom were Jordanians, 157 Syrians and 96 Iraqis.

In terms of sector distribution,1,399 facilities joined the service and consultation sector with a total capital of JD99 million, while 1,556 institutions joined the constructions and building materials sector with a capital of JD96 million.

The financial and banking sector received 17 facilities whose capitals totalled JD11 million, whereas the ACC registered 2,091 institutions at the foodstuff sector with a total capital of JD9 million, and 649 institutions joined the furniture and stationery sector with a capital of JD7 million.

LONDON — Britain's banks need to dedicate far greater resources towards securing their IT infrastructure and should have a designated board member overseeing the issue, a senior lawmaker said, following a string of high-profile technology failures.

Andrew Tyrie, chairman of parliament's Treasury committee, also suggested that Andrew Bailey, the deputy governor of the Bank of England (BoE) who heads its banks supervisory arm, should be tasked with ensuring the banks develop more resilience.

Britain's retail banks have been hit by a number of technology failures in recent years, causing inconvenience for hundreds of thousands of customers and prompting lawmakers to call for more investment in financial technology.

"Every few months we have yet another IT failure at a major bank," Tyrie said in a statement on Sunday. "These IT blunders and weaknesses are exposing millions of people to uncertainty, disruption and sometimes distress. Businesses suffer, too. We can't carry on like this."

Tyrie said someone, probably Bailey, the head of the BoE's Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA) supervisory arm, needed to take "a leadership role" over an issue that poses systemic risk to the banking system.

"Currently, no one group seems to be directly responsible for developing a full understanding of the risks carried," Tyrie said in a letter to Bailey dated January 22 and published by the committee.

"A group of this type should now be formed with the primary task of ensuring that the banks develop more robust resilience to protect banking and payment systems. The head of the PRA may be best suited for the leadership role," he added.

HSBC suffered an online and mobile banking blackout in January while in 2015 thousands of Britons failed to receive their wages when some HSBC business customers were blocked from making payments.

State-backed Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) has promised to invest hundreds of millions of pounds in its computer systems after a series of high-profile glitches. Some customers at Barclays have also endured problems.

Earlier this month, eleven major banks, including Barclays, UBS and HSBC, said they had tested a system that could make trading much faster and cheaper, using the technology that underpins crypto-currency bitcoin.

The banks are part of a consortium of 42 major lenders, brought together last year by New York-based software company R3 to work on ways blockchain technology could be used in financial markets — the first time so many have collaborated on using such systems.

A blockchain is a huge, decentralised ledger of every bitcoin transaction, verified and shared by a global computer network, that can also be used to secure and validate any exchange of data, including real assets, such as commodities or currencies.

Banks reckon the technology could save them money by cutting out middlemen and making their operations more transparent. But analysts caution it is early days — bitcoin was invented just six years ago and blockchain experiments are still under way.

For this test, R3 used a Microsoft platform, which runs on a blockchain built by Ethereum, a non-profit organisation.

The 11 banks in the simulation, operating across four continents, each used their own computer, or "node", and transferred "Ether" to each other — Ethereum's equivalent of bitcoin, R3 said.

They were able to settle the transactions almost instantaneously, it added. That compares to settlement times of days or even weeks, depending on the asset class, under the current systems used by banks.

R3 Managing Director Charley Cooper said the technology could be used by banks to transfer real assets within the next one or two years.

"Rather than just talking about what we might do, we've moved into a new phase, which is actually executing these plans and demonstrating how this technology might work in practice," said Tim Grant, who runs R3's test labs.

Peer-to-peer

The other eight banks involved in the experiment were BMO Financial Group, Credit Suisse, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Natixis, Royal Bank of Scotland, TD Bank, UniCredit and Wells Fargo - all members of the R3 consortium.

"Proving the scale and peer-to-peer operation of blockchain experiments is an important next step," said UBS' senior innovation manager Alex Batlin, who is in charge of a blockchain lab for the bank in London.

R3 has recruited many heavyweights from the worlds of bitcoin and technology more broadly. Mike Hearn, a former lead bitcoin developer who last week said the crypto-currency had been a failed experiment, is its lead platform engineer.

Banks see potential in the so-called "smart contracts" that blockchain technology facilitates: agreements that are automatically executed when pre-determined conditions are met.

"Though... there are still many implementation hurdles left to overcome, this exercise further validates the utility of smart contract consensus technology," a spokesman for Ethereum said.

Separately, entrepreneurs who want to open a bank in Britain can call a new helpline to chat about how much capital they need, and get invitations to rub shoulders with supervisors.

The Financial Conduct Authority and the PRA said this month they had opened a New Bank Start-up Unit to give information and support to newly-authorised banks and people thinking of setting up a bank.

The government is keen for new banks to enter a market where consumer banking is dominated by a handful of lenders such as HSBC, Barclays, Lloyds, RBS and Santander UK.

Regulators have already made changes, such as easing the initial capital burden and fast-tracking approval of a new bank's top officials, leading to 12 new lenders authorised since 2013 with more in the pipeline.

"With the launch of the New Bank Start-up Unit, applicants will now benefit from having a single place where they can get the advice and guidance they need to start a new bank and support once they are authorised," Bailey, said in a statement.

New banks will benefit from access to a helpline, meetings with supervisors, regulator capital reviews, monthly updates by email, and invitations to seminars on regulatory topics.

Elsewhere, the BoE has proposed a new rule for recovering bonuses of rule-busting bankers who have moved to a new employer.

Britain already has among the world's toughest rules on banker pay, introduced amid public anger over lenders being bailed out by taxpayers in the financial crisis and bankers pocketing big payouts at a time of austerity for most people.

These rules allow for a bonus to be cut, stopped or clawed back.

But regulators said this month they wanted to go further to crack down on so-called "rolling bad apples" or bankers who pocket a bonus and then join another lender before any reckless behaviour is uncovered.

"Individuals should be held accountable for their actions and not be able to actively evade the consequences of their actions," Bailey said in a statement.

"Today's proposals seek to ensure that individuals are not rewarded for bad practice or wrongdoing and should help to encourage a culture within firms where reward better reflects the risks being taken," he added.

The proposed new rule targets buyouts, or when a bank compensates new employees for unpaid bonuses that were cancelled when they left their old bank.

Regulators say that undermines the ability to claw back a bonus which has been paid or withhold or cut the unpaid portion of a bonus, when misconduct is later discovered.

The proposed rule states an employee's new contract would allow for a bonus to be recovered or not paid should the person's former employer determine guilt in misconduct or risk management failings.

"The proposed rules would also allow new employers to apply for a waiver if they believe the determination was manifestly unfair or unreasonable," the BoE said.

The proposals, put out to public consultation, would make it impossible for a banker to wipe the slate clean by changing jobs, said Alexandra Beidas, an employment lawyer at Linklaters.

"It remains to be seen if this will be workable in practice as it will involve sharing potentially sensitive information between banks," Beidas said.

Last year, the BoE said it would stop short of actually banning buyouts as it would most likely lead to a competitive disadvantage for British firms given there is no similar rule in other financial centres around the world.