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China's yuan joins elite club of IMF reserve currencies

Step not expected to impact financial markets

By - Oct 01,2016 - Last updated at Oct 01,2016

The yuan joins a prestigious club of major international reserve currencies also comprising the US dollar, pound, yen and euro (AFP photo)

BEIJING — China's yuan joins the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) basket of reserve currencies on Saturday in a milestone for the government's campaign for recognition as a global economic power.

It is the first time that a currency has been added to sit alongside the US dollar, the euro, the yen and the British pound in the IMF's special drawing rights (SDR) basket, which determines the currencies countries receive as part of IMF loans.

The IMF is adding the yuan, also known as the renminbi, or "people's money", on the same day that the Communist Party celebrates the founding of the People's Republic of China in 1949.

The IMF announced last year that it would add the yuan to the basket, so actual inclusion is not expected to impact financial markets. But it puts Beijing's often opaque economic and foreign exchange policy in the international spotlight as central banks add yuan assets to their official reserves.

Critics argue that the yuan does not fully meet IMF reserve currency criteria of being freely usable, or widely used to settle trade or widely traded in financial markets. US Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump has said he will formally label China a currency manipulator if he wins November's election.

China stunned investors by devaluing the currency last year and the yuan has since weakened to near six-year lows, adding to worries about already feeble global growth.

Some China watchers also fear that Beijing's commitment to further market opening and financial sector reforms will fade after its diplomatic success, despite repeated reassurances from Beijing it will continue with the process.

US Treasury Secretary Jack Lew said on Thursday the yuan was "quite a ways" from true global reserve currency status. While recognising "enormous" change in China in the last 10 years that had made the currency more open, Lew said the government still had work to do.

"Being part of the SDR basket at the IMF is quite a ways away from being a global reserve currency," he said.

Capital Economics said inclusion of the currency in the IMF's SDR basket will have minimal impact on foreign demand for yuan assets, so "offers little support" for the currency.

 

"If anything, the risk is that official intervention to keep the renminbi stable ahead of its inclusion will subsequently be paired back, allowing for renewed deprecation," it said in a research note.

EY opens applications for 2016 business entrepreneur award

By - Oct 01,2016 - Last updated at Oct 01,2016

AMMAN — Ernst & Young Jordan (EY) has launched its 2016 business entrepreneur award, targeting entrepreneurs who established companies that adopt creative concepts within the Emerging Entrepreneur of the Year category. EY started accepting candidacy applications on September 29 and will continue through October 14, the Jordan News Agency, Petra, reported.

Interested candidates can apply for free by sending an e-mail to [email protected]. Candidates must have brought a new innovative idea to the market; be owners/founders of a business that enjoys stable financing and they must be directly responsible for their company’s daily operations and success.

Also, they should have a significant equity shareholding in their enterprise and run a firm that has been in operation for over two years, employing a minimum of 10 employees.

In economic squeeze, Saudi Arabia seeks oil leadership

Iran to be exempted from production cuts

By - Sep 29,2016 - Last updated at Sep 29,2016

In this photo dated on Wednesday, Algerian Energy Minister Noureddine Boutarfa, (centre) leaves the international conference centre in Algiers, Algeria, with minister of energy and industry of Qatar, Bin Saleh Al Sada (left) and acting Secretary General of OPEC Mohammed Barkindo (AP photo)

RIYADH — Saudi Arabia, feeling the economic pinch from low oil prices, agreed to a surprise OPEC production cut, but the country remains determined to exert leadership over the world market, analysts say.

Over the past two years, the largest producer in the repeatedly turned down calls to cut output in an increasingly competitive global market.

But Riyadh agreed at an informal meeting in Algiers on Wednesday to an OPEC production curb of several hundred thousand barrels per day (bpd) to boost weak crude prices.

It had previously refused to cut output at a time when Iran, its regional rival, ramps up production after the lifting of international sanctions.

But the collapse in Saudi Arabia's main revenue source already created a record budget deficit last year, leading to unprecedented subsidy cuts and curbs on government spending.

Under the Algiers deal, OPEC output will fall to 32.5-33 million bpd from 33.47 million bpd in August, and Iran will be exempted from the cuts.

Iran hopes to return its output to a pre-sanctions level of around 4 million bpd.

Saudi Arabia and Iran have no diplomatic relations and are at odds over a series of regional issues, including the wars in Yemen and Syria.

"No doubt, Saudi Arabia is feeling the economic pain from low oil revenues. This is compounded by the war in Yemen and regional tensions," Kuwaiti oil analyst Kamel Al Harami told AFP.

"But by facilitating the deal, Saudi Arabia has scored an important political point. It has shown that it is still in control of OPEC. It has reasserted its leadership," he said.

In doing so, "it has made some concessions" to Iran and other OPEC members, Harami said.

Saudi Arabia has long been the only producer with spare capacity, allowing it to raise or lower production to influence the market under its traditional policy.

But since 2014 it abandoned that approach to focus on protecting market share and drive out less-competitive players, including US shale oil producers.

That policy, and internal OPEC squabbles, raised questions about the relevance of the cartel which produces about 40 per cent of global output.

"Many OPEC members are suffering economically from low prices. Their economies are stagnating or going backwards and they face budgetary issues," said Greg McKenna, chief market strategist at forex broker AxiTrader.

"So it appears the fiscal imperative seems to have trumped OPEC's internal politics."

 

'Tipping point' 

 

London-based Capital Economics said a possible explanation for the deal was "that Saudi Arabia felt that any form of agreement, however flimsy, was needed to shore up OPEC's credibility".

Saudi policymakers may also be "increasingly concerned by the impact of fiscal austerity on the economy", it said.

Global oil prices fell from more than $100 a barrel in June 2014 to near 13-year lows of less than $30 in early 2016.

"Saudi Arabia have perhaps reassessed their dumping oil strategy to put US shale out of business as the pressure on their budgets has clearly reached a tipping point as well," said Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst at Oanda trading group.

He sees a "major shift" by Saudi Arabia in allowing Iran to increase output.

Other analysts were more cautious.

"As things stand, the deal doesn't seem to amount to much," Capital Economics said, expecting Riyadh to "rely on further fiscal consolidation, rather than an outright shift in oil policy".

An oil industry source told AFP it is too early to say there has been a change in Saudi policy but that internal economic factors could be "a strong driving force" for a potential change.

There is "no major shift," in Saudi oil strategy, Spencer Welch, senior consultant at ISH Energy said.

"They have said for a while they would be willing to do a deal if others were also involved. It appears others have agreed," Welch told AFP.

A former Saudi oil official said the new deal does not greatly change Saudi output even if the kingdom reduced production by 500,000 bpd.

"That will only take Saudi production back to January levels," Mohammad Al Sabban, former senior adviser to the Saudi oil minister, said on BBC television late Wednesday.

 

Saudi-Iranian tensions at that time stymied attempts at a meeting by OPEC and non-OPEC producer Russia to reach an output freeze.

$900,000 for more Panama Papers

By - Sep 29,2016 - Last updated at Sep 29,2016

COPENHAGEN — Denmark's government said on Thursday it had paid some $900,000 for access to Panama Papers documents to help it identify hundreds of suspected Danish tax cheats.

Tax havens were cast into a global spotlight in April after the details of the offshore financial arrangements of hundreds of thousands of clients, including several world leaders, were leaked from Panama-based law firm Mossack Fonseca by an anonymous whistleblower.

Denmark's move was part of growing global efforts to stamp out tax evasion and came after the Nordic country estimated that in the past three years alone it had lost 12.3 billion Danish crowns ($1.85 billion) to tax fraud.

"The next step is to dig deeper and find the people and investigate their taxation situation. This will bring us closer to whether there is reason to press charges...," Jim Sorensen, Denmark's tax authority (SKAT) chief, said in a statement.

Sorensen told Reuters the payment was made to an anonymous source in exchange for access to a wider range of Panama Papers touching on Danish citizens than those that were leaked.

Some 500-600 Danish citizens were being targeted, the tax ministry said in an earlier statement.

 

In a bid to recoup money paid out in the form of fraudulent tax refunds to Danes abroad, Danish authorities have already carried out raids in Britain and elsewhere.

Algeria calls for OPEC supply side action

OPEC meeting expected to discuss oil production freeze

By - Sep 28,2016 - Last updated at Sep 28,2016

Algeria’s Minister of Energy Noureddine Boutarfa gestures during a press conference while Sun Xiansheng, secretary general of the International Energy Forum, looks on, as part of the 15th International Energy Forum Ministerial meeting in Algiers, Algeria, on Tuesday (AP Photo)

ALGIERS — Algerian Energy Minister Noureddine Boutarfa on Wednesday pressed demands for action on an oil supply glut and higher investment to stabilise the market as an informal OPEC meeting in Algiers began.

“We must act on supply to re-stabilise the market” which has been hit by a massive surplus that has dragged prices down to record lows in the past two years, Boutarfa told a news conference following an International Energy Forum meeting.

“This energy market needs regulating a little. The law of supply and demand is not being applied rationally,” Boutarfa added just prior to the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries meeting.

“Today, we cannot go on in an erratic fashion because if we do, we cannot prepare for the future,” he ventured, voicing concern at a falloff in investment in the sector owing to the long slump in prices.

According to the International Energy Agency, last year saw a 25 per cent fall in investment in oil and gas exploration and production and the agency says the decline is continuing apace.

“Investing at less than $50 [a barrel] is not possible,” said Boutarfa.

“Will this situation not end up creating one even more complex in the years ahead? This is why it’s in all countries’ interest to reach a compromise.”

“It’s clear that from a theoretical point of view everyone supports the general interest. Then there comes the point where you fall back on special interests and things get a bit more complicated.”

The informal OPEC meeting was due to discuss a potential production freeze of around a million barrels a day to bring markets and prices back towards equilibrium.

But amid record output, there is discord among the 14-nation cartel whose share of global crude supply is around 40 per cent.

 

Progress is hampered notably by disagreements between Saudi Arabia and Iran, the latter back on stream as a producer after the recent lifting of a range of energy-related sanctions.

EBRD launches trade support initiative for SMEs

By - Sep 28,2016 - Last updated at Sep 28,2016

AMMAN — The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) is launching a new initiative to increase access to trade finance and advisory services for small and medium-sized businesses (SMEs). 

The initiative, known as Trade Ready, will expand the outreach of the EBRD’s pioneering Trade Facilitation Programme (TFP) and Advice for Small Businesses (ASB), helping SMEs involved in importing and exporting activities to get the finance and know-how they need to strengthen their ability to trade and to grow.

Trade Ready aims to unleash the potential of SMEs for international trade,  according to an ERBD statement. 

It offers trade finance training for local banks as well as advisory services for companies alongside policy dialogue to engage in improvements in the regulatory environment. While banks can expect to win new clients with the introduction of trade finance products, businesses will benefit from better access to finance and the chance to expand to international markets.

The initiative was presented to the public today at the World Trade Organisation (WTO) Public Forum 2016 in Geneva which was held under the theme “Inclusive Trade”. The Forum is the largest annual outreach event of the WTO and it usually attracts more than 2,000 guests.

Rudolf Putz, EBRD head of the Trade Facilitation Programme, said: “We are very happy to present this new initiative as it will allow local banks to reach small businesses that have the potential to benefit from international trade. Private SMEs represent the core of the economies in most countries where the EBRD invests and supporting the trade activities of these firms is an important element for securing their sustainable growth. The potential is huge, but often the know-how is missing, and this is exactly the issue Trade Ready will address.”

“We know that small businesses need access to both finance and the right advice to develop and grow. With Trade Ready, the EBRD will support small businesses through a wide range of services to make them more competitive abroad and at home, whether it is having enough information to make the best choice in their trade finance options or working with a consultant or adviser to adapt their product for a particular market.

“To achieve inclusive trade, we need to address the fact that smaller businesses are often overlooked,” said Charlotte Ruhe, EBRD director of advice for small businesses.

The initiative will provide SMEs with advice in a wide range of areas as well as offering training on trade finance instruments and networking opportunities to help engage in export and import activities. Trade Ready will also work with local banks to help them tailor trade finance products to the needs of small businesses and market them effectively. By engaging with smaller firms in trade finance, banks can expand the range of financial products they offer and diversify their portfolio. 

More details are available online.

 Established in 1999, the programme has enabled more than 18,500 transactions worth over 12.8 billion euro in 28 countries where the EBRD invests. 

The EBRD helps small and medium-sized businesses to access external advice in 26 countries from Morocco to Mongolia, applying donor funding from the European Union and a wide range of bilateral and multilateral donors. More than 16,000 SMEs have been supported to date, employing over 250 million euro of donor support that has been combined with contributions from the clients themselves.

JCI, European institutions meet to promote trade

By - Sep 28,2016 - Last updated at Sep 28,2016

AMMAN — In cooperation with the Italian Piemonte Agency for Investments, Export and Tourism and other European institutions, the Jordan Chamber of Industry (JCI), on Tuesday acquainted businessmen with the Euro-Mediterranean (Euromed) business promotion campaign in Jordan.

The campaign promotes Jordanian-Euromed partnerships and businesses to strengthen Euromed economic relations and increase the commercial exchange, the Jordan News Agency, Petra, reported.

JCI President Adnan Abul Ragheb highlighted the EU’s recent agreement to simplify the rules of origins for Jordanian products as an important deal to increase the Kingdom’s exports to Europe, stressing the importance of the campaign.

The Barcelona Process or Euromed Partnership was launched in 1995 to strengthen European relations with the countries in the Mashriq and Maghreb regions.

WTO drastically cuts global trade forecast

Global trade estimated to expand by just 1.7% this year

By - Sep 27,2016 - Last updated at Sep 27,2016

The WTO estimates that global trade will expand by just 1.7 per cent in 2016, compared to its April projection of 2.8 per cent (AFP photo)

GENEVA — The World Trade Organisation (WTO) on Tuesday downshifted its global trade forecast, warning that anti-globalisation rhetoric and Brexit were pushing trade growth to its slowest pace since the financial crisis.

The warning comes as talks on a landmark free trade deal between the European Union and United States battle stiff opposition and as Britain's EU exit causes jitters.

The WTO said that global trade was now estimated to expand by just 1.7 per cent this year, compared to its April projection of 2.8 per cent.

The new figure is also a far cry from a projection a year ago that trade would swell by 3.9 per cent this year.

Describing it as "wake-up call", the Geneva-based global trade body said growth had fallen to its slowest pace in around seven years when the global financial crisis hit.

"With expected global GDP [gross domestic product] growth of 2.2 per cent in 2016, this year would mark the slowest pace of trade and output growth since the financial crisis of 2009," the trade body said in a statement.

Looking ahead, the WTO said several issues, including Brexit's possible impact, had now cast a shadow and it had revised down its 2017 forecast.

Trade is now expected to grow between 1.8-3.1 per cent, down from the previously anticipated 3.6 per cent, said the WTO, which sets the rules of global commerce.

Also clouding the outlook, the WTO said, is "the possibility that growing anti-trade rhetoric will increasingly be reflected in trade policy" as well as financial volatility due to monetary policy changes in developed countries.

Last week, the Paris-based Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development said Britain — the world's fifth-biggest economy — was poised to take a major hit next year from its decision to leave the EU.

The WTO said that the main impact of the shock vote in June had been on the value of the pound and noted that it had not sparked an immediate economic downturn.

But, it added: "Effects over the longer term remain to be seen. Economic forecasts for the UK in 2017 range from fairly optimistic to quite pessimistic."

 

'Anti-globalisation sentiment' 

 

The WTO said the downgrade followed a sharper-than-expected decline in merchandise trade volumes in the first quarter, and a smaller-than-expected rebound in the second quarter.

The contraction, it said, was driven especially by slowing economic and trade growth in developing economies like China and Brazil.

China's banking sector debt came into the crosshairs earlier this month of the global central bank watchdog, the Bank for International Settlements, fuelling fresh fears about the world's second biggest economy.

But, said the WTO, North America, which had showed the strongest import growth of any region between 2014 and 2015, was also hit by deceleration.

"The dramatic slowing of trade growth is serious and should serve as a wake-up call," WTO Director General Robert Azevedo warned in the statement. 

"It is particularly concerning in the context of growing anti-globalisation sentiment," he added cautioning against this translating into "misguided policies".

Azevedo also highlighted the negative impact of inequality.

"While the benefits of trade are clear, it is also clear that they need to be shared more widely," he insisted.

"We should seek to build a more inclusive trading system that goes further to support poorer countries to take part and benefit, as well as entrepreneurs, small companies, and marginalised groups in all economies," he said.

 

"This is a moment to heed the lessons of history and re-commit to openness in trade, which can help to spur economic growth," Azevedo said.

Investor confidence drops in June

By - Sep 27,2016 - Last updated at Sep 27,2016

AMMAN — Jordan Investor Confidence Index dropped in June by 3.11 points to 92.58 points, compared with 95.69 points in May 2016.

The monthly-issued index, published by the Jordan Strategy Forum (JSF), seeks to measure the confidence of investors operating in the Jordanian market.

All three sub-indices witnessed declines in June 2016. Firstly, confidence in the monetary system sub-index dropped 0.64 points from 92.58 points in May 2016 to 91.94 points in June 2016.The drop was attributed to a slight decrease in the Central Bank of Jordan foreign reserves, which reached JD12,062 million in June.

The sub-index of confidence in the real economy dropped by 0.9 points, reaching 102.67 points compared to 103.57 points in the previous month, according to a JSF statement. 

The number of companies registered went down to 404 from 550 in May despite an increase in the total capital of registered companies, which reached JD8.4 million in June, the statement indicated

Moreover, the manufacturing quantity production index dropped by 3.89 points to reach 163.2 points, down from167.09 points in May 2016. 

This drop was mainly attributed to decreases in the production index for the mining and quarrying sector, as well as the manufacturing sector. This was accompanied by decreasing construction activity, as the number of construction permits dropped by 18 per cent. Total tax collected on real estate also dropped.

 

The sub-index of confidence in the Amman Stock Exchange dropped by 1.57 points to settle at 97.97 points in June, and this was attributed to a decline in shares bought by foreign investors to JD0.92 million from JD1.8 million. 

Iran downplays chances of oil deal but UAE keen on freeze

Oil prices edge up after plunge on Friday

By - Sep 26,2016 - Last updated at Sep 26,2016

ALGIERS — Iran downplayed on Monday the chances of OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers clinching an output-restraint deal in Algeria this week even though several other members of the group said they still hoped for steps to tackle a price-eroding glut of crude.

Oil prices have more than halved from 2014 levels due to oversupply, prompting OPEC producers and rival Russia to seek a market rebalancing that would boost revenues from oil exports and help their crippled budgets.

The predominant idea since early 2016 among producers has been to agree to limit output, although market watchers have said such a move would fail to reduce unwanted barrels.

Sources told Reuters last week that Saudi Arabia had offered to reduce its output if Iran agreed to freeze production, a shift in Riyadh’s position as the kingdom had previously refused to discuss output cuts.

However, oil markets fell on Friday as hopes for a comprehensive deal in Algeria faded, with sources saying the informal meeting was meant only to build consensus ahead of formal OPEC talks in Vienna at the end of November. Crude prices recovered on Monday in volatile trade.

As delegations gathered in Algiers, Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh said expectations should be modest.

“This is an advisory meeting and that’s all we should expect from it,” he was quoted as saying by oil ministry news service SHANA before he left for Algiers. “The talks among OPEC members can be used for the OPEC summit in Vienna in November.”

One OPEC delegate said the focus was now firmly on trying to persuade Iran to freeze production at levels acceptable for the rest of OPEC.

Iran’s production has been stagnant at around 3.6 million barrels per day (bpd) in the past three months, close to what the country produced before the imposition of European sanctions in 2012.

The sanctions were eased in January 2016, and Iran has said it wants to achieve output of more than 4 million bpd.

Some ministers and officials expressed hope that a deal could emerge this week.

“For us in the UAE, we are for a decision. We think a freeze will help if it is agreed. We hope that all are going to agree,” the United Arab Emirates’ energy minister, Suhail Bin Mohammed Al Mazroui, told Reuters.

Algerian Energy Minister Noureddine Bouterfa said everyone in the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries agreed that the market was badly oversupplied and the situation had worsened since the last OPEC meeting in June.

“Credible and significant action is needed to help the market rebalance... One fundamental aspect is that OPEC production should be significantly below the level of August. The second is that the effort must be shared out.”

“Third is that any agreement be limited to the time it takes to reabsorb oil stocks. And the fourth is that the action should be credible in the eyes of the market and verifiable,” Bouterfa told French-language Algerian daily Liberte.

 

Members of OPEC will meet on the sidelines of the International Energy Forum, which groups producers and consumers, from September 26-28. Russia is also attending.

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