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NEW DELHI — India on Thursday predicted that its economy will rebound and grow at 7 per cent this year as it outlined plans on how to double its economy by 2025 to $5 trillion.

The forecasts are part of an annual Economic Survey released before the full budget on Friday and sheds light on the state of the Asian giant's economic health.

India remained the world's fastest-growing major economy for nearly two years, outpacing China after the right-wing government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi took power in 2014. 

But a fall in domestic demand lowered its growth rate in the last quarter to 5.8 per cent, pushing it to a five-year low and behind China's 6.4 per cent in the same period. 

The slowdown was largely linked to a slump in domestic consumption that has impacted tax collection amid rising state expenditure on the distressed farm sector.

The annual growth in the last fiscal year remained at 6.8 per cent, down from 7.2 per cent in 2017-18.

The report says India's economy will expand through investment and consumption along with a stable political government. 

Modi, who won a second landslide victory in recent national elections, is likely to push up government spending and accelerate economic growth through tax reliefs. 

The survey said India needs to sustain a growth rate of more than 8 per cent to become a $5 trillion economy by 2025, up from $2.61 trillion now.

India is ranked the sixth-biggest economy just behind Britain and ahead of France. The US and China occupy the first and second spots with $19 trillion and $12 trillion.

India's chief economic advisor K.V. Subramanian said the survey lays out a strategic blueprint for achieving the goal, through "virtuous cycle" of savings, investment and exports.

"The key theme is about shifting gears, we have grown well but we need to shift gears at 8 per cent sustained growth," Subramanian told reporters at a press conference in New Delhi.

Modi, who in the election campaign came under sharp attack for falling short on creating jobs, tweeted that the report "outlines a vision to achieve a $5 trillion economy".

NEW YORK — Tesla reported a surge in second-quarter deliveries on Tuesday, while other US automakers suffered drops in sales for the first half of 2019, with higher vehicle costs weighing on consumers.

Shares of Tesla shot higher in after-hours trading after it reported delivering 95,200 vehicles during the quarter ending June 30, a record and an increase of more than 50 per cent over the prior quarter.

The company, which has faced worries about weakening demand for its electric vehicles, said in a securities filing, “we believe we are well positioned to continue growing total production and deliveries in Q3”.

Earlier, General Motors, Fiat Chrysler and Toyota were among the companies that reported drops in sales through the year’s midpoint, although Fiat Chrysler won a modest gain in sales in June.

Sales at Honda and Nissan also fell through the first half of the year. Ford reports sales on Wednesday.

The results were roughly in line with analyst forecasts and reflective of an auto market that has cooled somewhat, even as demand has stayed strong for larger autos.

Higher interest rates on auto loans have added to the drag on consumers, who already face higher vehicle costs, said Michelle Krebs, head of automotive relations at Cox Automotive. 

Cox is forecasting 2019 sales of 16.8 million, down three per cent from last year, with a drop to 16.5 million expected in 2020.

Annual sales have been above 17 million the last four years.

“We have seen retail sales weakening for some time,” Krebs said in an interview, adding that the effect has been mitigated somewhat by higher sales from companies who are taking advantage of tax incentives to refresh their fleets.

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General Motors reported a 4.2 per cent drop in first-half sales of 1.4 million following a 1.5 per cent dip in second quarter. 

The company’s fleet of larger crossover vehicles sold well, along with fully available versions of the Chevrolet Silverado and GMC Sierra, two popular pickups that were recently revamped.

However, overall sales of both the Sierra and Silverado fell compared with the year-ago period because some versions of the vehicles are still not widely available. A GM spokeswoman said more vehicles would be on the market in the second half of 2019.

“The US economy continues to grow at a healthy pace,” said GM Chief Economist Elaine Buckberg. “If the Fed cuts rates, as widely expected, lower financing costs will provide further support to auto sales.”

Fiat Chrysler bucks trend 

Fiat Chrysler’s auto sales for the first half of the year were down 2 per cent at 1.1 million.

A 2 per cent gain in June was propelled by a 45 per cent surge in Ram truck sales, which offset declines in the company’s other brands, including Jeep, Chrysler, Dodge and Fiat.

The results suggest Ram has gained market share from GM’s Silverado during the latter’s launch period, Krebs said in a note from Cox.

Toyota North America reported a 3.1 per cent drop in first-half sales to 1.2 million, with a 3.5 per cent decline in June sales.

The company pointed to higher June sales of its RAV4 crossover vehicle. But sales of the Corolla and Camry sedans have fallen for the first six month so of the year.

Sales of the company’s luxury Lexus brand fell during the quarter but rose slightly during the first half of the year. 

VIENNA — The OPEC bloc of oil producers on Tuesday formally signed a new charter of cooperation with major allies, including Russia, one day after thrashing out the document at a marathon meeting.

The new agreement between OPEC and its so-called OPEC+ partners is being seen as a sign of the cartel’s efforts to stay relevant in a market which has been transformed by booming US shale oil output.

Saudi Oil Minister Khalid Al Falih hailed this week’s meeting as “historic” and said that “market volatility” meant that a new framework was needed with “more producer power than OPEC alone can provide”. 

OPEC Secretary General Mohammed Barkindo compared the new partnership to a marriage, telling reporters: “It’s for eternity!”

“We’re confident that with the course of time, probably by next time we meet, we may have some new members joining the charter,” Barkindo said. 

Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak declared on Monday that all of OPEC’s ministers had agreed to prolong its daily production cuts. 

Speaking through an interpreter after Tuesday’s meeting, Novak said that the new cooperation accord between OPEC and its allies was not only the result of growing US output.

“We do not shape our strategy in response to US actions; we shape our actions in response to what the market does,” Novak said.

‘Unjustified’ sanctions 

The production cuts signed off on this week by OPEC and its allies had been agreed by Russia and OPEC kingpin Saudi Arabia at the G-20 summit in Osaka last weekend.

OPEC+ comprises the cartel’s 14 member nations plus 10 extra crude producers: Russia, Mexico, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Brunei, Malaysia, Oman, Sudan and South Sudan.

Monday’s gathering of OPEC ministers ran almost five hours late into the evening as ministers discussed the details of the new charter.

Iran was more sceptical of the idea and its Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh said on leaving the meeting that the charter would have “no impact on OPEC and its mechanism or decision taking”.

Also speaking late on Monday, Saudi Energy Minister Khalid Al Falih said the charter would allow OPEC and non-OPEC countries to establish “a structure for technical meetings, ministry meetings, regular summits” with the OPEC secretariat in Vienna acting as “the main coordinator”.

While Monday’s agreement in Vienna had initially sent oil prices surging, on Tuesday they were more subdued amid fresh worries over the global economic outlook. 

Novak said on Tuesday that in his view oil market volatility was being worsened by “trade wars which are intensifying as we speak”. 

“We see sanctions being used freely without any justification and more and more frequently,” Novak added. 

TOKYO — Tokyo shares soared on Monday after the United States and China agreed a ceasefire in their trade war that has damaged the global economy.

The benchmark Nikkei 225 index rose 2.13 per cent, or 454.05 points, to 21,729.97, while the broader Topix index ended up 2.17 per cent, or 33.71 points, at 1,584.85.

"The market enjoyed a major rise," Okasan Online Securities said in a note to clients.

"Investors welcomed the fact that the G-20 ended without incident, as well as the resumption of the US-China trade talks," it said.

Japan hosted this year's Group of 20 (G-20) meeting in Osaka last week, providing a forum to bring together US President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping for direct talks.

The two men agreed to resume trade negotiations and halt fresh tariffs, allowing the rest of the world to breathe a sigh of relief.

Trump also said US businesses would be allowed to sell products to Chinese telecom giant Huawei as long as it doesn't pose national security concerns.

That remark also helped lift the market, particularly tech shares.

"As the sense of caution receded, investors' spirit improved and pushed up shares," Okasan said.

The dollar rose against the yen in a favourable development for Japanese exporters, changing hands at 108.44 yen compared with 107.82 yen in New York on Friday.

The central Bank of Japan released a business sentiment survey just before the opening bell, with the headline index among major manufacturers falling in the second quarter to June.

But Seiichi Suzuki, senior market analyst at Tokai Tokyo Research Centre, noted the survey had been taken before the weekend news.

The US-China truce accord "showed things won't follow the much-feared, worse-case scenario", he said.

"If the survey was taken today or tomorrow, the outcome would be different," he told AFP.

Industrial robot maker Fanuc rose 3.06 per cent to 20,540 yen, Toyota gained 2.78 per cent to 6,874 yen and Sony added 2.35 per cent to 5,781 yen, with Nintendo up 1.42 per cent at 40,050 yen.

Tokyo announced on Monday it will impose trade restrictions on Japan-made substances used by South Korea's chip and smartphone makers.

The announcement prompted share of firms producing the affected materials to plunge.

Among them JSR, which makes affected products such as the photosensitising agent resist used in chip manufacturing, dropped 2per cent to 1,667 yen. 

HANOI — The European Union and Vietnam on Sunday signed a long-awaited free trade deal that will slash duties on almost all goods, an agreement that pushes back against a rising tide of global protectionism and hailed as a “milestone” by Brussels. 

The signing comes amid worldwide trade turmoil, with a dragging US-China row and Britain’s impending exit from the European Union casting a dark cloud over global growth. 

It follows years of tough negotiations.

EU trade commissioner Cecilia Malmstrom called the deal “an important milestone” and a key step towards better co-operation with southeast Asian economies. 

“This is the most ambitious trade agreement that EU has signed with a developing country,” she told reporters after the landmark deal was inked in Hanoi on Sunday in front of dozens of negotiators and diplomats. 

The EU-Vietnam free trade pact will eventually see duties slashed on 99 per cent of Europe’s imports from Vietnam.

Billed as a so-called next generation deal, it also includes rules around labour rights and environmental and intellectual property protections. 

“We want to make sure that EU trade in this region has a positive impact so we have enshrined high standards,” Malmstrom said. 

“It sends a very powerful signal that says ‘we believe in trade’,” she later told AFP.

The deal will come into force only once it is ratified, which could come by the end of the year if approved by lawmakers on both sides.

It is the second EU free trade agreement with a southeast Asian nation after Singapore signed a deal with the bloc last year.

It comes on the heels of a watershed agreement on Friday between the EU and South American trade bloc Mercosur that will link 800 million people in what will be one the world’s largest regional commercial accords.

Malmstrom said rights issues were raised throughout negotiations and the trade agreement would allow the EU to “engage rather than to isolate” Vietnam on human rights. 

“I don’t think this trade agreement will solve these concerns but it creates a way to talk openly and frankly about them,” she told AFP after the signing. 

The EU is pushing for better trade with southeast Asian economies, who themselves are seeking multilateral agreements, especially as the United States has withdrawn from such deals under President Donald Trump. 

The US president pulled out from the sprawling Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) soon after taking office, signalling Washington’s protectionist preference for bilateral deals. 

The TPP has since been reborn as the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, a watered down version of the original pact without the inclusion of the world’s biggest economy. 

Vietnam was set to gain enormously from that deal, and has courted other trade partners to soften the blow. 

“Vietnam sought to accelerate its negotiations... in this case [with] the EU, clearly as a way of diversifying their trade,” Stephen Schwartz, head of Asia Pacific sovereign ratings at Fitch Ratings, told AFP from Hong Kong. 

Vietnam’s export-led economy has largely been buoyed by free trade, and open access to the European market is expected to boost its main deliveries to the bloc, namely textiles, shoes, smartphones and computer parts. 

European countries are also eager to tap into Vietnam’s market of 95 million people and its fast-mushrooming consumer class. 

“The advantages we can get from [the FTA] will bring huge contributions to Vietnam’s exports and imports,” Vietnam’s Trade Minister Tran Tuan Anh said on Sunday. 

Vietnam has seen some short-term gains from the US-China trade spat as some companies shift from China into its lower-tariff, cheap labour market.

But analysts warn that a weaker China or US could ultimately dent economies like Vietnam that largely rely on exports to the world’s two biggest economies.

With exports from Vietnam to US soaring amid the trade spat, US President Donald Trump last week threatened to slap tariffs on the manufacturing hub, calling it “the single worst abuser of everybody”. 

NEW YORK — European and US stocks climbed on Friday as investors kept a watch on developments at a Group of 20 summit in Japan, where US President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping were due for a high-stakes discussion on trade.

As heads of the world’s 20 leading economies began their summit in Osaka, Trump said he was hopeful that Saturday’s talks would be “productive”.

Global equities have enjoyed a largely positive couple of weeks on hopes for progress in the head-to-head meeting between the leaders of the world’s top two economies, though the possibility of failure persists.

“Optimism has been limited at best,” said Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at the trading firm IG.

“The fact that the trade conflict has lasted this long sends a message that both sides are not rushing towards a deal, or are prepared to make significant concessions.”

In Europe, both Paris and Frankfurt closed with solid gains, while London edged up 0.3 per cent.

On Wall Street, the broad-based S&P 500 finished the session at 2,941.76, up 0.6 per cent for the day. The index has risen 17.3 per cent so far this year, the best first half of a year since 1997.

The mood in Asia was more downbeat with Shanghai ending down 0.6 per cent and Tokyo and Hong Kong each off 0.3 per cent.

The dollar was down slightly against the euro and pound, while sterling did not react to official data confirming that Britain’s Brexit-facing economy grew by 0.5 per cent in the first quarter.

‘Greatest threat’ 

Saturday’s Trump-Xi meeting is “hugely important as the trade war represents arguably the greatest threat to the global economy — especially if it is allowed to escalate further,” Craig Erlam of Oanda trading group told AFP.

There remains some uncertainty about how the meeting will go, with The Wall Street Journal reporting that Xi plans to demand the United States reverse a ban on doing business with Chinese telecoms giant Huawei as a condition for kick-starting talks.

Trade talks stalled last month, with US officials accusing their Chinese counterparts of reneging on core commitments negotiated so far.

Some market watchers think the two sides will agree to a cease-fire on new tariffs but not reach a comprehensive agreement.

Elsewhere on Friday, world oil prices wobbled as dealers await next week’s output meeting of OPEC and other top crude-producing nations, notably Russia.

OPEC is on red alert over escalating US-Iran tensions that have fueled recent strong oil-price gains — but producers are likely to extend output cuts agreed late last year, according to analysts.

“The outcome of the OPEC meeting in Vienna on Monday seems to be a done deal,” noted City Index analyst Fiona Cincotta.

“Most of the major players have already indicated that the group plans to extend production cuts put in place in December and there has been no major dissenting voice among the oil producers.”

WASHINGTON — America's economy grew at a solid 3.1 per cent clip in the first three months of the year, government data showed on Thursday, confirming a previous estimate.

The pace of the gross domestic product (GDP) growth marked a significant uptick from the slowdown at the end of 2018, despite President Donald Trump's extended government shutdown. However, the economy is expected to slacken somewhat in the second quarter.

The unexpectedly strong quarter was a political boost to Trump, who has hailed America's economic vigour despite mounting signs that his aggressive trade policies are beginning to weigh on business activity and confidence.

Economists also say major factors which contributed to the strength of the January-March quarter — such as falling imports and inventory building — do not point to underlying momentum in the economy.

Forecasts for growth in the second quarter of this year currently point to expansion of around 2 per cent.

The United States next month is due to mark its longest economic recovery on record, ten years after the end of the Great Recession in 2009 — prompting nervous speculation among markets about how much longer it can last.

The data released on Thursday showed consumption in the first quarter had been even weaker than previously thought.

This was offset, however, by improvements in the trade balance as exports proved to be stronger than previously thought while imports were lower. The picture for business investment and the housing market also improved.

A bump in military spending also helped support overall growth.

The White House says it expects growth this year to hold steady at its 3 per cent target, well above forecasts from the International Monetary Fund and US Federal Reserve.

For the moment, the United States continues to emit mixed signals.

Surveys of consumer confidence and business activity are running hot, unemployment is still near 50-year lows, and consumer spending has been healthy in recent months. 

But elsewhere the news has not been so good. Recession indicators have begun to flash red and the manufacturing sector has weakened significantly.

Meanwhile, the brinkmanship in trade relations between Washington and Beijing has left markets on tenterhooks.

Much is riding on a meeting between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping scheduled for this weekend, with Trump having threatened to slap painful tariffs on $300 billion more in Chinese imports.

NEW YORK — FedEx warned Tuesday that its fiscal 2020 earnings outlook remains clouded by trade war uncertainty as the company’s chief executive criticised the Trump administration’s lurch towards protectionism.

Overall the company is projecting 2020 diluted earnings-per-share to be down by a “mid-single-digit” percentage point compared with the 2019 level.

FedEx expects higher operating income in fiscal 2020 from its domestic package and freight shipping services as growing e-commerce activity fuels higher revenues.

But operating income is expected to be dented at FedEx Express, its international shipping division, in part because of trade uncertainty. 

“We’ve been very disappointed over the last few years with the assumptions that we made on the growth of international trade, particularly with the Trump administration”, Chief Executive Fred Smith said on a conference call with financial analysts.

“The United States policy since 1934... was to expand international trade and now we have a huge dispute with China where the US has basically become protectionist, defined as ‘I’ll make everything I need in my own borders.”

Smith, long an outspoken advocate of free trade, also took issue with China’s policy on trade, which he described as “mercantilist”.

US President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping are expected to meet at the G-20 gathering in Japan later this week, an occasion that investors are hoping will bring the two countries closer to agreement after months of tariffs, countermeasures and threats.

Smith said the company remained committed to operating in China and “completely dedicated” to complying with Chinese laws. 

He said the company has experienced more audits “to some degree” at its Guangzhou hub in the wake of the US-China dispute.

FedEx again apologised over delivery problems involving Chinese telecommunications giant Huawei following a US crackdown on the company that Trump has linked to the US-China trade war.

Smith said the company’s newly-filed lawsuit against the Commerce Department over export restrictions was not directly related to the Huawei case but was due to a broader set of government actions that are “opaque” and put too much onus on delivery companies.

On Monday, FedEx sued the US Commerce Department over export restrictions it said impose an “impossible burden” on delivery firms and asked a US District Court to block enforcement of the measures.

FedEx says the US rules makes shippers liable for packages that could violate the restrictions, even if the shipper has no prior knowledge of the problem.

FedEx reported a net loss of $2 billion for the quarter ending May 31, compared with $1.1 billion in profits in the year-ago period. 

The company cited lower international revenues and $316 million in costs associated with a voluntary employee buyouts as factors in the loss.

BEIJING — Top Chinese and US trade negotiators have held telephone talks ahead of a crunch meeting between presidents Xi Jinping and Donald Trump at the Group of 20 (G-20) summit this week, Chinese state media said on Tuesday.

Vice Premier Liu He — Xi's pointman in the trade war — spoke with US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin on Monday and they “exchanged opinions on economic and trade issues”, according to the official Xinhua news agency.

The call took place “at the request of the US side” and the officials agreed to continue to maintain contact, Xinhua said.

Trump's highly anticipated meeting with Xi will take place on Saturday, the second day of the G-20 summit in Osaka, Japan, according to a US official.

The two leaders agreed to meet after negotiations broke down last month and both sides exchanged steep increases in tariffs on $260 billion in two-way trade.

Trump has since moved to blacklist China's top telecommunications company, Huawei. Beijing has responded by threatening to create its own list of “unreliable” companies and individuals.

'Uphold multilateralism' 

Chinese officials said on Monday that they will seek a united front against protectionism at the G20.

“Unilateralism and protectionism has damaged global growth... undermined global value chains and dampened market sentiment,” Zhang Jun, the Chinese assistant minister of foreign affairs, said at a briefing to preview Xi's attendance at the summit.

“China will work with others at the G-20 to firmly uphold multilateralism and an open, rule-based global trading order,” Zhang said.

Trump has instigated trade battles with an array of countries and regions, from China to Japan, Mexico and the European Union, but Beijing's own economic policies have been criticised.

The US and the EU have accused Beijing of providing a lack of level playing field for foreign firms in China, allowing the theft of intellectual property and forcing international companies to hand their trade secrets to local partners.

Chinese Vice Minister for commerce Wang Shouwen said on Monday that Washington and Beijing should make compromises.

Any talks between China and the US have to be based on “mutual respect, equality and mutual benefit and comply with WTO rules”, Wang said.

He also urged the US to remove “inappropriate and discriminatory” barriers against Chinese companies, saying such moves jeopardise the interests of both Chinese and US firms — an oblique reference to the US treatment of Huawei.

American officials have accused their Chinese counterparts of backsliding on commitments made in the talks, but Lighthizer said last week he was hopeful the discussions could resume productively. 

“My speculation is that some forces in China decided that they had gone too far, went out beyond their mandate,” he said. “I have trust and complete good faith in the people that I'm dealing with... My hope is we can get back on track.”

LONDON — Rising tensions between the United States and Iran dampened the mood in equity markets on Tuesday as investors turned to safe havens the yen and gold, with the latter striking a near six-year high.

Oil prices steadied despite the US imposing further sanctions on key crude producer Iran, with investors biding their time ahead of next week's key OPEC meeting on output.

Traders looked ahead also to crucial trade talks due this week between US President Donald Trump and Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping.

"Geopolitical tensions weighed on the [stock] markets on Tuesday after the US imposed new sanctions on Iran," said Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell. "Investors [are] switching their attention once again to gold as a safe-haven asset."

The precious metal struck $1,439.65 an ounce Tuesday, its highest level since September 2013, with a softer dollar lending additional support, according to traders.

Japan's currency, viewed also as a haven investment, jumped to a near six-month high at 107.41 yen to the dollar.

Meanwhile, the return on 10-year German government bonds, another safe haven investment, hit a record low of -0.33 per cent, which means investors are paying Berlin to hold their money.

Bitcoin held above $11,000 after breaking the marker on Monday for the first time in 16 months.

The latest round of US sanctions against Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and military top brass, meanwhile, meant the "permanent closure of the path to diplomacy" with Washington, the Islamic republic's foreign ministry said.

Trump unveiled the new restrictions on Monday, days after Iran shot down a US drone that Tehran said had entered its airspace.

Foreign ministry spokesman Abbas Mousavi's Tweet provided a catalyst to sell Asian shares on Tuesday.

However, European stock markets were steady in afternoon deals, with Wall Street also little changed at the opening.

Traders were keeping tabs on developments in the China-US trade standoff as both countries' leaders prepare for crunch talks on the sidelines of this week's G-20 summit in Japan.

World stock markets last week rallied after Trump flagged positive phone talks with Xi.

The call took place "at the request of the US side" and they agreed to maintain contact, the Xinhua news agency said.

"The prolonged trade war between the two largest economies has downgraded global growth as more barriers to trade means higher prices," said OANDA senior market analyst Alfonso Esparza.

"Optimism remains high, but more details need to emerge before the market can fully price in how far apart the two sides really are."