World

WASHINGTON — The United States has serious concerns about Ukraine's ability to make significant gains in an upcoming counteroffensive, as well as Kyiv's capacity to keep defending against Russian strikes, according to a Tuesday report and documents reviewed by AFP.

The documents are part of a trove of highly sensitive material that has been posted online, sparking a US criminal investigation into a breach the Pentagon says poses a "very serious" risk to national security.

Ukraine is expected to launch an attack on invading Russian troops in the spring — its first major military push of the year.

But one top secret document said tough Russian defenses and "enduring Ukrainian deficiencies in training and munitions supplies probably will strain progress and exacerbate casualties during the offensive", the Washington Post reported.

A document reviewed by AFP — this one marked "secret" — details the dire state of Ukrainian air defences, which have been instrumental in protecting against Russian strikes and preventing Moscow's forces from gaining control of the skies.

Ukraine's international supporters have worked to beef up the country's air defenses, providing a mix of cutting edge and older technology to create multi-layered defenses that protect against attacks at different altitudes.

But the February 2023 document, the authenticity of which could not immediately be confirmed, said that 89 per cent of Ukrainian medium and high-range air defences was made up of SA-10 and SA-11 Soviet-era systems that could soon run short of ammunition.

Based on munitions use at the time, the document projected that Ukraine's SA-11s would be out of missiles by late March, and its SA-10s by early May.

Ukraine’s ability to provide medium-range air defences to protect the front line “will be completely reduced by May 23”, the document said.

The Post reported that another document said Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah Al Sisi ordered the production of 40,000 rockets for shipment to Russia, telling officials to keep it secret to “avoid problems with the West”.

White House National Security spokesman John Kirby pushed back against the report.

“We’ve seen no indication that Egypt is providing lethal weaponry capabilities to Russia,” Kirby told reporters. “Egypt is a significant security partner and remains so.”

He also said that Washington is contacting allies and partners at “very high levels” in the wake of the release of the documents, which included sensitive analyses of countries with which the US has close ties.

Dozens of photographs of documents have been found on Twitter, Telegram, Discord and other sites in recent days, though some may have circulated online for weeks, if not months, before they began to receive media attention.

Many of the documents are no longer available on the sites where they first appeared, and the United States is reportedly working to have them removed.

The fallout from the apparent leak could be significant, even deadly, potentially putting US intelligence sources at risk, while giving the country’s foes valuable information.

LONDON — Doctors working in England’s public health service on Tuesday launched what has been billed as the most disruptive strike in its history, in a dispute over pay and working conditions.

The four-day walkout, which began at 7:00 am (06:00 GMT), follows months of strikes by other public and private sector staff as inflation sparks the UK’s worst cost-of-living crisis in a generation.

The action by so-called junior doctors — physicians who are not senior specialists but who may still years of experience — comes after a three-day stoppage last month and several strikes by nurses.

It threatens to be the most serious walkout yet and lead to the cancellation of hundreds of thousands of appointments.

They are demanding a pay rise of 35 per cent, which they say is needed to help make up for more than a decade of salary cuts in real terms.

They also argue pandemic backlogs coupled with staff shortages are massively increasing workloads, endangering patients.

“We have had a massive [pay] cut and we are filling more gaps because people are leaving,” said junior doctor Katrina Forsyth, who added she sometimes wept after shifts.

“It’s becoming less safe for patients,” she said from a picket line after finishing a night shift at St. Thomas’ Hospital in London.

The government maintains the BMA’s request is unaffordable, as ministers try to dampen wage demands across the public sector amid stagnant growth and high inflation.

After slowing for three straight months, the Consumer Prices Index shot up to 10.4 per cent in February — close to 40-year highs and more than five times the target set by the Bank of England.

“I hoped to begin formal pay negotiations with the BMA last month but its demand for a 35 per cent pay rise is unreasonable,” said Health Secretary Steve Barclay.

“If the BMA is willing to move significantly from this position and cancel strikes we can resume confidential talks and find a way forward, as we have done with other unions.”

‘Immense pressures’ 

Barclay struck a deal last month with unions representing various health workers, including nurses, to increase pay by 5 per cent.

Union members are currently voting on whether to accept it.

However, the deal does not cover junior doctors, who comprise around half of all NHS doctors, according to official figures.

Their latest walkout will pile “immense pressures” on the service, NHS England medical director Stephen Powis warned.

“This is a significant set of industrial action that’s going to cause major disruption,” he told BBC radio.

The strike affects the NHS in England but not in the UK’s other regions.

Up to a quarter of a million appointments could be postponed, according to the NHS Confederation, which represents the system in England, Wales and Northern Ireland.

Family doctors are also reported by British media to be closed for appointments for up to a week, as GPs are drafted in to provide cover.

Powis said the NHS is “working very hard” to ensure emergency services are staffed but that cover was “fragile” and “routine care will be affected”.

Phil Sutcliffe, 75, of south London, was among those affected, with his cancer check-up appointment postponed to next month.

But he joined the St Thomas’ Hospital picket line, organised by the British Medical Association.

“These doctors do the most fantastic job for very modest pay... so the government needs to get to the negotiating table and start talking,” he said.

MOSCOW — A Moscow-backed official announced on Monday that he had visited the frontline city of Bakhmut in Ukraine, suggesting that Russia's forces have made significant gains there.

The battle for Bakhmut is the longest and bloodiest of Russia's offensive, and the city has taken on huge symbolic importance even though analysts say it has little strategic value.

Denis Pushilin, the Russia-installed head of the eastern Ukrainian Donetsk region, posted a video of himself on Telegram in the heavily destroyed city.

“Here is our Artemovsk,” Pushilin said, using the Soviet-era name for Bakhmut. 

“It is being liberated by Wagnerites,” he added, in reference to the Wagner mercenary group spearheading Russia’s battle in the city.

Destroyed buildings and ruins could be seen in the background behind Pushilin, who wore a camouflage helmet.

He appeared to be standing in the central Svoboda square of the city.

The sound of artillery could be heard in the video.

The head of Wagner, Yevgeny Prigozhin, last week claimed the group had “in a legal sense” captured Bakhmut because he said it had taken control of city hall.

The Russian army reported no such gains, and Ukraine has said it is continuing to defend the city.

In a sign that Wagner has made significant gains, several Russian war correspondents have in recent days published videos from Bakhmut.

One of those was Semen Pegov, who published images of himself riding on a motorbike accompanied by Wagner fighters through the ruins of the city.

PINGTAN, China — China declared it had "successfully completed" three days of war games around Taiwan on Monday, after it deployed dozens of aircraft to launch simulated strikes and an aerial blockade of the self-ruled island.

Beijing held the exercises in response to Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen's meeting with US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy last week, an encounter it had warned would provoke a strong response.

After three days of drills, the Chinese military said it had "successfully completed" tasks related to its "Joint Sword" drills.

The exercise "comprehensively tested the integrated joint combat ability of multiple military branches under actual combat conditions", the People's Liberation Army's (PLA) Eastern Command said in a statement.

The war games saw Beijing simulate targeted strikes on Taiwan and encirclement of the island, including "sealing" it off, and a state media report said dozens of planes had practised an "aerial blockade".

One of China's two aircraft carriers, the Shandong, also "participated in today's exercise", the military said.

The United States, which had repeatedly called for China to show restraint, on Monday sent the USS Milius guided-missile destroyer through contested parts of the South China Sea.

"This freedom of navigation operation upheld the rights, freedoms, and lawful uses of the sea," the US navy said in a statement.

It added that the vessel had passed near the Spratly Islands — an archipelago claimed by China, Taiwan, the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia and Brunei. It is about 1,300 kilometres  from Taiwan.

The deployment of the Milius immediately triggered a condemnation from China, which said the vessel had "illegally intruded" into its territorial waters.

Separately, Beijing warned Monday that Taiwanese independence and cross-strait peace were "mutually exclusive", blaming Taipei and unnamed "foreign forces" supporting it for the tensions.

“If we want to protect peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait we must firmly oppose any form of Taiwan independence separatism,”Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin warned.

Close Chinese ally Russia defended the drills, with a Kremlin spokesperson saying Beijing had a “sovereign right” to respond to what Moscow called “provocative acts”. 

‘No war’ 

On Beigan island, part of Taiwan’s Matsu archipelago that is within sight of China’s mainland, 60-year-old chef Lin Ke-qiang told AFP he did not want war.

“We, common people, just want to live peaceful and stable lives,” Lin said, adding that Taiwan’s military was no match for China’s.

“If any war happens, now that their missiles are so advanced, there’s no way our side could resist. This side will be levelled to the ground.”

China and Taiwan split at the end of a civil war in 1949. China views democratic Taiwan as part of its territory and has vowed to take it one day.

The United States has been deliberately ambiguous on whether it would defend Taiwan militarily.

But for decades it has sold weapons to Taipei to help ensure its self-defence, and offered political support.

Tsai met McCarthy outside Los Angeles on her way home from a visit with two allied countries in Central America.

In August last year, China deployed warships, missiles and fighter jets around Taiwan in its largest show of force in years following a trip to the island by McCarthy’s predecessor, Nancy Pelosi.

Tsai meeting with McCarthy in the United States, rather than in Taiwan, was viewed as a compromise that would underscore support for the island but avoid inflaming tensions with Beijing.

But China had repeatedly warned against any meeting, and began the latest war games soon after Tsai returned to Taiwan.

“These operations serve as a stern warning against the collusion between separatist forces seeking ‘Taiwan independence’ and external forces and against their provocative activities,” Shi Yin, a PLA spokesman, said about “Joint Sword”.

Tsai responded to the drills by pledging to work with “the US and other like-minded countries” in the face of “continued authoritarian expansionism”.

Live-fire exercises 

Monday’s exercises were to include live-fire drills off the rocky coast of China’s Fujian province, about 80 kilometres south of the Matsu islands and 190 kilometres from Taipei, maritime authorities said on Saturday.

The local maritime authority said the exercises would be held between 7:00am and 8:00pm around Pingtan, a southeastern island that is China’s nearest point to Taiwan.

A video published Monday to the Chinese Eastern Theatre Command’s official WeChat account showed a pilot saying he had “arrived near the northern part of Taiwan Island”, with missiles “locked into place”.

In another video with dramatic orchestral accompaniment, an officer’s piercing whistle sends military personnel running into position as a simulated barrage on Taiwan unfolds on screen.

BEIJING — Chinese fighter jets and warships simulated strikes on Taiwan Sunday as they encircled the island during a second straight day of military drills that were launched in response to its president meeting the US House speaker.

The exercises sparked condemnation from Taipei and calls for restraint from Washington, which said it was "monitoring Beijing's actions closely".

Dubbed "Joint Sword", the three-day operation, which includes rehearsing an encirclement of Taiwan, will run until Monday, the People's Liberation Army's (PLA) Eastern Theatre Command said.

"I am a little worried; I would be lying to you if I say that I am not," said 73-year-old Donald Ho, who was exercising in a park on Sunday morning in Taipei, in the far north of the self-ruled island.

"I am still worried because if a war broke out both sides will suffer quite a lot," he told AFP.

China's war games saw planes, ships and personnel sent into "the maritime areas and air space of the Taiwan Strait, off the northern and southern coasts of the island, and to the island's east", the army said as it launched the exercises, engineered to flex Beijing's military muscles in front of Taiwan and the world.

A report from state broadcaster CCTV on Sunday said drills had “simulated joint precision strikes against key targets on Taiwan island and surrounding waters”, adding that forces “continued to maintain the situation of closely encircling the island”.

The write-up went on to say the air force had deployed dozens of aircraft to “fly into the target airspace”, and ground forces had carried out drills for “multitarget precision strikes”.

Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen immediately denounced the drills, which come after she met US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy in California.

She pledged to work with “the US and other like-minded countries” in the face of “continued authoritarian expansionism”.

In Washington, a State Department spokesperson said the United States had “consistently urged restraint and no change to the status quo”, but noted it had ample resources to fulfil its security commitments in Asia.

The United States has been deliberately ambiguous on whether it would defend Taiwan militarily, although for decades it has sold weapons to Taipei to help ensure its self-defence.

 Live-fire exercises 

Exercises on Monday will include live-fire drills off the rocky coast of China’s Fujian province, about 80 kilometres south of Taiwan’s Matsu Islands and 186 kilometres from Taipei.

“These operations serve as a stern warning against the collusion between separatist forces seeking ‘Taiwan independence’ and external forces and against their provocative activities,” said Shi Yin, a PLA spokesman.

AFP saw no immediate signs of enhanced military manoeuvres on the northern coast of Pingtan, a Chinese island across the strait from Taiwan where the live-ammunition exercises will kick off on Monday.

On a roadside verge high above the ocean, Lin Ren blasted the Chinese national anthem on a loop as he sold cups of coffee from the back of his car.

“I think the current exercises serve as a way of putting pressure on Taiwan,” the 29-year-old told AFP.

“I think they make it clear to them that we have the capabilities... to unify,” he said.

Still, the drills were “largely symbolic”, he said, adding: “I don’t worry that there will be an armed conflict this time around.”

China views democratic, self-ruled Taiwan as part of its territory and has vowed to take it one day, by force if necessary.

Taiwan’s defence ministry said there had been 18 detections of Chinese warships and 129 of aircraft around the island since the drills began on Saturday morning, adding Beijing has deployed a mix of fighter jets, drones, bombers, and transport aircraft.

On Saturday the ministry released a map showing 45 aircraft had crossed the median line separating Taiwan from mainland China — the most incursions this year according to figures maintained by AFP.

Taiwan has been on high alert and said its forces “will be well-prepared and maintain solid combat readiness” while making sure not to “escalate conflict”.

A video showing a Taiwanese coast guard patrol trailing Chinese warships was released by the Ocean Affairs Council on Saturday.

“You have seriously undermined regional peace, stability and security, please turn around and leave immediately,” a coast guard officer warns by radio.

An AFP journalist saw Mirage 2000 fighter jets scrambling at the Hsinchu air force base in northern Taiwan on Sunday.

Three boats from Taiwan’s elite Amphibious Reconnaissance and Patrol Unit were also seen patrolling the Matsu Islands on Sunday, according to an AFP journalist.

“The CCP [Chinese Communist Party] has continued to conduct military exercises around the Taiwan Strait and since this morning it has successively dispatched multiple batches of aircraft... as well as a number of ships in the area,” Taiwan’s defence ministry said on Sunday.

The drills came hours after the departure from Beijing of French President Emmanuel Macron, who was in China to urge his counterpart Xi Jinping to help bring an end to the war in Ukraine.

In August last year, China deployed warships, missiles and fighter jets around Taiwan in its largest show of force in years following a trip to the island by McCarthy’s predecessor, Nancy Pelosi.

Tsai returned to Taiwan on Friday after visiting her island’s dwindling band of official diplomatic allies in Latin America, with two US stopovers that included meetings with McCarthy and other lawmakers.

MARSEILLE — Fire was hindering the search for up to 10 people missing on Sunday in the rubble of an apartment building that collapsed in French Mediterranean city Marseille, with authorities warning the blaze could continue for hours.

Five people from neighbouring buildings were hurt in an apparent explosion that destroyed the four-storey block around 12:40am (22:40 GMT Saturday).

Interior Minister Gerald Darmanin told reporters at the scene that there were “between four and 10 people beneath the rubble”.

“We don’t know if they’re alive or dead,” he added.

Multiple witnesses spoken to by AFP said they had heard the sound of an explosion.

“I was sleeping and there was this huge blast that really shook the room. I was shocked awake as if I had been dreaming,” said Saveria Mosnier, who lives in a street near the site in the La Plaine neighbourhood.

“We very quickly smelled a strong gas odour that hung around, we could still smell it this morning,” she added.

Smoke was still rising from the mound of rubble Sunday afternoon, an AFP photographer saw from a nearby building.

“We have to be prepared to have fatalities in this terrible tragedy,” Marseille Mayor Benoit Payan had earlier told journalists at the scene.

More than 100 firefighters were battling the blaze in the ruins of the building, believed to have one apartment on each floor.

The intense heat as the building burns has kept search dogs from picking through the rubble, with Darmanin saying it would be “several hours... maybe even longer” before the fire was out.

“Time is of the essence” to discover possible survivors among the ruins, Marseille fire chief Lionel Mathieu said.

The rescuers’ task has been complicated by the partial collapse of one of the adjoining buildings, where eight people had to be brought down by ladder after taking refuge on a roof terrace.

Other buildings on the street were evacuated and around 180 residents put up in schools, while an aid centre for people looking for missing family members or loved ones has been opened in a neighbouring district.

“I am thinking of those affected and of their loved ones... thank you to the firefighters and emergency workers,” President Emmanuel Macron wrote on Twitter.

Deputy mayor Yannick Ohanessian told journalists at the scene that “several witnesses have reached us this morning to say there was a suspicious smell of gas”.

“A lot of families in the neighbourhood are afraid,” said Arnaud Dupleix, the president of a parents’ association at the nearby Tivoli elementary school, who sprang into action to coordinate aid for those evacuated.

Eight were killed in Marseille in 2018 when two dilapidated buildings in the working-class district of Noailles caved in.

The accident cast a harsh light on the city’s housing standards, with aid groups saying 40,000 people live in shoddy structures.

But authorities appeared to rule out structural issues in the latest collapse, in a neighbourhood known for its bars and nightlife.

“There was no danger notice for this building, and it is not in a neighbourhood identified as having substandard housing,” said Christophe Mirmand, prefect of the Bouches-du-Rhone region.

MOSCOW — Hundreds of supporters including Yevgeny Prigozhin, the chief of mercenary outfit Wagner, turned out on Saturday for the funeral of a high-profile Russian military blogger killed in a bomb attack.

Last week an explosion ripped through a cafe in Russia's second city Saint Petersburg, killing 40-year-old Vladlen Tatarsky and wounding dozens. Investigators have accused Ukraine and members of Russia's embattled opposition of being behind the blast.

Mourners, some carrying flowers, gathered at the prestigious Troyekurovskoye Cemetery in western Moscow for the closed-casket funeral amid beefed-up police presence.

Some supporters sported on their clothes the letters Z and V — symbols of Moscow's assault on Ukraine. Prigozhin turned up with a sledgehammer, Wagner's calling card, which he placed near the coffin of the blogger known for his staunch anti-Ukraine stance.

Carrying lighted candles, priests in white robes led a funeral service at the cemetery. Tatarsky's awards were placed on velvet cushions near his casket. Among them was the Order of Courage, one of the country's top decorations, which President Vladimir Putin posthumously bestowed on Tatarsky for his "bravery".

Since the start of Moscow's assault on Ukraine, military bloggers have become an influential force and often criticise the regular forces on the battlefield.

Tatarsky, who hailed from the eastern Ukrainian region of Donetsk, initially fought alongside pro-Kremlin separatists and later became a popular blogger with half a million followers on social media.

One of the mourners, Alexei Sobolev, said that like Tatarsky, he joined pro-Kremlin separatists in eastern Ukraine in 2014, the year Russia annexed Crimea.

The 45-year-old described Russia's offensive in Ukraine as a "war for survival".

"They've decided to destroy us all, it is simply a matter of time," he added.

Anna Ivannikova, a 33-old manager, said Russia was losing its "best" people.

The attack on the blogger came after Darya Dugina, the daughter of a prominent ultranationalist intellectual, was killed in a car bombing outside Moscow in August which Russia also blames on Ukraine.

Ivannikova called Tatarsky's murder an "attempt to kill the very meaning of truth".

"These deaths should not have happened," she added.

Prigozhin, whose ragtag forces are leading the assault for towns in eastern Ukraine, praised the blogger for helping "destroy the enemy".

“He is a soldier who stays with us, whose voice will always live and speak only the truth,” Prigozhin said in a statement released by his spokespeople.

Clutching a bunch of red roses, Leonid Slutsky, head of the ultra-nationalist Liberal Democratic Party of Russia, praised the “true son of great Russia”, expressing hope that thousands would follow in his footsteps.

At a Kremlin ceremony marking the annexation of four Ukrainian regions last September, Tatarsky recorded himself saying: “We will defeat everyone. We will kill everyone. We will rob everyone as necessary. Just as we like it.”

Russian authorities claim without any evidence that supporters of jailed Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny helped Ukrainian authorities carry out the bombing attack. A 26-year-old Russian woman, Darya Trepova, was detained and charged with terrorism.

Investigators say Trepova has brought a statuette rigged with explosives to a cafe in Saint Petersburg and handed it over to the blogger, whose real name was Maxim Fomin.

Putin this week accused Western security services of having helped Kyiv stage “terror attacks” in Russia.