The global stakes of US elections: Implications on the Middle East and beyond

As the world awaits the upcoming American elections, the implications stretch far beyond the borders of the United States. Israel stands at a historic crossroads, and the outcome of the American presidential race will reverberate globally, influencing alliances, shaping geopolitical dynamics and determining the course of history.

Israel is on the brink of a turning point if not a transformative shift. The consequences of this shift will further trigger an internal crisis that will lead to a government reshuffle. Concurrently, the global stage experienced a seismic shift, marked by the emergence of a new axis comprising China, Russia and Iran, reshaping international alliances while the West grappled with its challenges.

In the face of these changes, the impending American elections take centre stage. The United States, often hailed as the “leader of the free world”, holds a position of unparalleled influence, with its policies shaping the destiny of nations worldwide. The world, including the new axis, the Middle East and Israel, is closely monitoring the American political landscape, recognising the pivotal role it plays on the global stage.

However, the return of a Republican president, known for supporting Israel, presents an opportunity for Israel to act as a regional power. A Republican victory is envisioned to potentially revive the US international standing economically and militarily. Moreover, such a president is anticipated to take decisive actions against Iran, a move that may come at the cost of influencing events in Ukraine. The years 2024 and beyond will witness Washington focusing its global efforts on countering China, thus providing Israel the space to address its security concerns independently.

If Donald Trump were to win the presidency again, it would likely signal a continuation and, perhaps, an amplification of policies observed during his previous tenure. Trump’s administration, known for its “America First” approach, prioritised unilateral decision-making and a departure from traditional diplomatic norms. In the Middle East, this translated into bold moves that had far-reaching consequences.

Trump’s administration was marked by a notably close relationship with Israel, epitomised by the recognition of Jerusalem as the capital and the relocation of the US embassy. A second Trump term could see a deepening of this alliance, potentially emboldening Israeli leadership in regional matters.

The Palestinian-Israeli conflict witnessed significant shifts during Trump’s presidency, notably with the unveiling of the “Deal of the Century”. A reelection could see a revival of efforts to implement aspects of this plan, impacting the dynamics between Israel and Palestine.

Jordan, a key player in the region, may find itself undergoing new challenges. Trump’s policies often favoured strong, bilateral relationships, and a continuation of this trend might require Jordan to recalibrate its diplomatic strategies to maintain its regional influence.

A Trump victory would likely maintain a focus on countering Iran’s influence in the region. This could lead to a re-evaluation of existing agreements and alliances, potentially reshaping the security landscape in the Middle East.

The “new axis” of China, Russia and Iran, which gained prominence in recent years, may face increased scrutiny and challenges from the Trump administration. This could alter the dynamics of international alliances, with potential ripple effects on the Middle East.

Trump’s presidency was often associated with supporting strong leadership. In countries experiencing civil unrest or pursuing democratisation, a Trump victory might impact the trajectory of these movements, with potential consequences for stability in the region.

In essence, a second Trump term would likely bring a mix of continuity and evolution in US policies, with profound implications for the Middle East. As the region steers its intricate geopolitical landscape, the outcome of the American elections holds the key to shaping its future trajectory.