Could Trump be good for Europe?

WARSAW — Before the US presidential election, it seemed like no one but Donald Trump’s staunchest supporters believed he could win. After all, the man is a convicted felon, a putschist-provocateur, an agent of chaos, and a walking scandal who has been disowned by almost all his former advisers, some of whom describe him as a fascist. Moreover, the incumbent Democratic administration presides over an economy with low inflation, low unemployment, high economic growth, a record-high stock market, and major new investments in infrastructure, technology, and green energy. Yet it happened.

Much has already been written about the reasons for the Democrats’ failure, and about the dire implications of another Trump presidency. With Trump, it is difficult to predict anything, especially now that he is no longer surrounded by serious, reasonable advisers and seasoned politicians. Nor is his Republican Party what it used to be. Like Poland’s Law and Justice (PiS) party under Jarosław Kaczyński, the GOP has effectively become the property of its leader.

Still, let’s try to think of something positive, if only to ward off fatalism or despair. First, there is the war in Ukraine. Although the Biden administration has devoted plenty of attention to this issue, one thing is certain: continuing the same policy would not lead to an outright victory for Ukraine. Biden’s approach did not guarantee success, and may instead have guaranteed only a slow bleed in Eastern Europe.

Trump’s unpredictability may therefore have a silver lining. It was he, after all, who sent the first shipment of anti-tank Javelin missiles that later aided Ukraine’s initial defense. When Ukraine approached Barack Obama’s administration to purchase lethal arms after Russia’s 2014 incursions into its territory, it was turned down. And when Russia began amassing troops and military equipment near the Ukrainian border in March 2021, the Biden administration approved only $125 million in aid, followed by another $60 million that May. 

Yes, Trump threatened to withhold aid unless Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky helped him implicate the Biden family in corrupt dealings. But this plot blew up in his face and led to his first impeachment. Looking ahead, it is rather hard to imagine that a man with such a big, all-consuming ego would simply hand over Ukraine. What would he get out of it? Putin has nothing to offer, and he has become a junior partner to China, Trump’s bête noire.

As for the broader transatlantic relationship, America’s pivot away from Europe was going to happen sooner or later. It has been dragging on since the Obama years, and now the European Union may finally get the jolt it needs. You cannot drag your feet forever when it comes to investing in your own arms industry and defense. If South Korea can afford it, why can’t Germany and the EU as a whole?

The COVID-19 shock already significantly reshaped the EU for the better, proving – finally – that is possible to incur common debt to finance necessary investments. Equally, the war in Ukraine showed that the EU should also have a common defense policy. Now it will finally have to pursue this goal in earnest. Since Europeans can afford it, there is no reason to rely on support from someone else.

Poland has been a leader in this respect, having already put its defense spending on track to reach 5 per cent of GDP by 2025. Again, why can’t Germany do the same? If properly armed, the EU is fully capable of defending its eastern flank. Considering that the risks are distributed unevenly (with Poland and other Eastern European countries being the most exposed), the least that the rest of the EU can do is share the expense of a common defense budget.

Poles also can be somewhat reassured by the fact that Trump’s Euroskepticism is directed primarily at Western Europe, since it is Germany and France that compete economically with the United States. While the new American right has little patience for “Old Europe,” it loves “New Europe,” owing to its own right-wing populist leanings. Perhaps these political impulses can finally be of some use. Hitherto, Poland’s PiS-aligned president, Andrzej Duda, has only hurt the country; but as a good friend of Trump’s, he may now have a beneficial role to play.

In any case, the leadership crises in Germany, France and Spain have brought Poland and Italy to the fore. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni can help lead while Western Europe gets its act together. With many allies and a budget ten times larger than Russia’s, Europeans can easily take care of themselves as long as they maintain a united front. We no longer have any excuse not to tackle our own problems.

Sławomir Sierakowski, Founder of the Krytyka Polityczna movement, is a Mercator senior fellow. Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2023. www.project-syndicate.org