When historians look back on the Middle East decades from now, they might find that trends in this region after 2015 were determined by the outcome of four seminal issues and battles that are in play this month.

The most important one is the struggle within Egypt to achieve a stable governance and economic system that is at once legitimate in the eyes of its people and sustainable for generations ahead, for Egypt’s governance model will influence many other turbulent Arab lands.

The last four years witnessed a roller coaster of Egyptian political experimentation and mass action. Yet, since the historic January 2011 revolution, Egyptians have not yet escaped their legacy of military-managed authoritarian humiliation combined with socio-economic mediocrity.

The latest phase of attempts to achieve political legitimacy, socio-economic efficacy and national stability was launched this week by Field Marshall-turned-President Abdel Fattah Al Sisi at the three-day international economic conference at Sharm El Sheikh.

It resulted in announcements of tens of billions of dollars of foreign investments in infrastructural and economic developments, and the unveiling of plans for a whole new administrative capital city east of Cairo, to emulate dramatic and architecturally impressive sudden cities like Dubai.

I am dubious about this process for Egypt, because it seems to have taken the neoliberal economic development model that has failed the Arab world in recent decades to a new level, where Egypt will have the world’s first gated capital.

This decision was made by a handful of army officers and friendly bureaucrats, and was almost totally conceived, designed, financed and validated by foreign parties.

Egyptian citizens were not asked for their suggestions about how to spend $45 billion to improve conditions in the existing capital.

I hope dearly that Egypt succeeds, stabilises and prospers, but signs of these goals remain thin today.

Fateful decisions continue to emerge from closed circles of military men, with Egyptian citizens relegated to enjoying shopping malls as their highest right.

How the ongoing struggle for stability and citizen rights in Egypt plays itself out will go a long way to defining the Arab condition in the decades ahead.

The second fateful contest under way is the military battle for the Iraqi town of Tikrit, which has been occupied by Daesh for a year or so.

The fight to dislodge Daesh from Tikrit and other parts of northern Iraq and Syria is just now starting to take place seriously, using a combination of Iraqi army and civilian forces, Kurdish fighters, and Iranian, Arab and American-led international support to defeat Daesh and break up the “Islamic state” it declared last June.

How this battle ends will be an important determinant of the fate of militant Islamism and the condition of existing Arab states that date from the World War I era.

The third important development this week were the parliamentary elections in Israel, which in time will help clarify whether Israel will continue its drift to the nationalist right and perpetuate the conflict with Palestine and the Arab world.

The Arab-Israeli conflict is the oldest source of radicalisation, militarisation and destabilisation in the Middle East.

Its equitable resolution would significantly tone down emotions and tensions in the region, and help redirect national energies and resources to state building and regional cooperation.

In the 2002 Arab Peace Plan, the Palestinians and all other Arab states long clarified their willingness to coexist in peace with Israel, but we have yet to hear a clear response from Israel.

The outcome of this week’s election might clarify whether Zionism, as it is manifested in Israel, ultimately affirms the ethos of the conquering warrior or the ethics of a sage judge who honours justice for all and above all.

The fourth fateful issue that is reaching a peak moment of decision these days is the relationship between Iran and the Western world, as encapsulated by the P5+1 negotiations with Iran on resolving the two related issues of Iran’s nuclear capabilities and international sanctions against Tehran.

How this important negotiation concludes will determine for decades, maybe even generations, a critical dynamic that has long plagued us all, and remains unclear today: Whether relations between Middle Eastern powers, and the West and Israel are defined by the international rule of law that is equitably applied to all states or by a combination of Western-Israeli neo-colonial and triumphalist assertions and accusations that are always countered by rejection and resistance from within our region.

The fate of this region remains in the hands of its people.

How current events in Tikrit, Cairo, Tel Aviv and Tehran play themselves out will shape our fate for generations to come.