Jordan at a strategic crossroads

Despite the friendly rhetoric that US President Donald Trump directed toward the Jordanian people following his meeting with His Majesty King Abdullah, reflecting Jordan’s regional strategic weight and affirming a strategic alliance between the two countries that Trump did not want to lose based on the recommendations of some of his advisors, this does not negate the fact that significant challenges and critical turning points will shape Jordan’s relationship with the Trump administration, especially regarding the fundamental disagreement over the Palestinian issue.

Betting on the possibility that Trump might change his stance and adopt a more moderate and balanced approach ignores a set of key structural factors and overlooks the broader contexts that shape his perceptions of the region and Israel. While the initial Arab confrontation with him (from Jordan, Egypt and Saudi Arabia) has been over the issue of the displacement of Palestinians from Gaza, the larger conflict will revolve around the West Bank, Jerusalem and Israel’s project there. This project aims to legitimise the annexation of large parts of the West Bank and take further steps toward the Judaisation of Jerusalem, moves that clearly align with the general trajectory of Trump’s policies and rhetoric on Palestine and Jerusalem, as well as his ominous promise to expand Israel’s territory.

On the other hand, the significant role of Trump’s surrounding team cannot be ignored—not only at the top levels of his administration but even at the second and third levels, and beyond. He has surrounded himself with a right-wing faction that sympathises with the Israeli right-wing project. Beyond the Secretary of Defense, the Secretary of State, the National Security Advisor, and the US Ambassador to Israel, even the Deputy Special Envoy for the Middle East, Morgan Ortagus, is well known for her strong pro-Israel leanings. Additionally, Eric Trager, the U.S. Middle East coordinator, is considered one of the key architects of Trump’s Middle East policy. These figures, among others, make it extremely difficult to expect major shifts or significant reversals in Trump’s approach in the coming phase.

Can we bet on the US administration pressuring Israel to make concessions leading to a normalisation agreement with Saudi Arabia, given that Saudi Arabia has made the establishment of a Palestinian state a key condition? From one perspective, this is an important factor to consider, and there is a need to develop an Arab position—particularly within what is now referred to as the Arab Six—and to reinforce the Saudi leadership’s stance on the matter. However, from another perspective, there is what might be called “political Binyaminism” (after Netanyahu), as his project is based on the complete rejection of the Palestinian state and the Palestinian Authority. He views the Oslo Accords as a mistake—something the Israeli Knesset has formally affirmed. Therefore, the alternatives are either creating a framework that falls short of a state, bargaining with Saudi Arabia on other issues in exchange for its position, or delaying Saudi-Israeli normalisation until Israel has implemented a significant portion of its project in the West Bank.

The most logical and realistic strategic option for Jordan is to acknowledge the fact that establishing a Palestinian state through a peace settlement is no longer a viable or likely scenario, at least in the foreseeable future. There is an Israeli-Zionist right-wing project strongly backed by the American right. Meanwhile, despite the recent Arab stance against forced displacement, there remains a strategic vacuum and Israeli superiority, especially after Iran and its allies have retreated. If there is no serious effort to rebalance the power dynamics, developments will accelerate at an even faster pace than in previous stages, toward a worse outcome. The Israeli right is seizing the opportunity presented by an American administration that is arguably the most loyal, supportive and committed to the Israeli right in US political history, a point Netanyahu himself has made, and, to be fair, he is not wrong.

It is essential to develop a strategic vision and an action plan for Jordan to navigate the expected developments. This plan must take into account how to engage with Trumpism and Netanyahu’s political doctrine, as well as the concealed plans regarding the Palestinian issue—many of which directly impact Jordan’s national security in a significant way.