How can the aviation industry achieve Net Zero by 2050?

Despite the unprecedented challenges brought upon the aviation industry by the pandemic, the sector has continued to demonstrate its commitment to enhancing levels of sustainability across all of its operations. Today, this has become one of the most important priorities for manyairlines, highlighted by the Net Zero resolution that the industry passed at IATA’s 77th General Assembly in October 2021.This committed them to achieving net-zero carbon emissions from their operations by 2050, bringing air transport in line with the objectives of the Paris agreement to limit global warming to 1.5°C.

We fully understand that this road is long, complex and bumpy. However, a commitment from our side has sent a signal to the market that we are serious about it. Such a commitment is making us accountable and scrutinised. We take it seriously, and we intend to deliver on it.

A recent survey by the International Air Transport Association (IATA) shows that improving the environmental impact of airlines is one of the biggest priorities for passengers post-pandemic, with 73 per cent wanting the aviation industry to focus on reducing its climate impact as it emerges from the COVID-19 crisis.

The scenario we have developed to reach our goal of net zero emissions will involve a combination of sustainable aviation fuels (65 per cent), new propulsion technology (13 per cent), infrastructure and operational efficiencies (3 per cent), and carbon offsets/carbon capture to fill any gaps (19 per cent).

New propulsion technology mainly focuses on the nascent technologies around hydrogen and electric propulsion.The challenge is that these are likely to be limited to short-haul routes when the majority of emissions are coming from wide bodyaircraft used on long-haul routes. To reduce emissions on these longer flights, and in all other flights, Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) is the only reliable avenue to de-carbonise the sector without disrupting the air connectivity that drives the global economy.

Scaling up production and availability of SAF is key to de-carbonising a notoriously hard-to-abate sector. Scenarios vary, but one thing that is clear is that SAF will represent the biggest share of the solution identified to reach net zero. SAF has been in use for several years, with more than 450,000 flights powered by a combination of SAF and conventional fuel already having occurred.

With the aviation industry expected to double, reaching more than 8 billion passengers by 2050, we stress the need to increase SAF production. At the 78th AGM held on June 2022 in Qatar, wecalled ongovernments to urgently put in place large-scale incentives to help rapidly expand the use of SAF. With this type of fuel able to reduce emissions by up to 80 per cent during its full lifecycle,it will help the aviation industry push towards achieving its net zero goal.

The de-carbonisation of the global economy will require investment across countries and across decades, particularly in the transition away from fossil fuels — therefore the whole aviation industry must come together. 

To achieve net zero emissions will be a huge challenge, particularly when the projected scale of the industry in 2050 will require the mitigation of 1.8 gigatonnes of carbon. This will require investments of significant magnitude from across the value chain — running into the trillions of dollars — andmust be supported by globally consistent government policies, all of which help to deliver de-carbonisation. It is critical that the industry takes into account differing levels of development, and to not distort competition.

The outcomes of the 41st ICAO Assembly in Montreal are encouraging for the industry: Unanimous adoption of a Long-Term Aspirational Goal to achieve net-zero CO2 emissions by 2050 for aviation; and the commitment to the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for the International Aviation, which is the only market-based measure to offset aviation’s emissions.

We have adopted a pragmatic mindset, and are clear about our intentions and how to get there. Working together with government and industry stakeholders, we will make net-zero carbon emissions a reality by 2050.

Author is a regional vice president for Africa and Middle East, IATA