What after occupation?

The surprise partial withdrawal of Russian troops from Syria, ordered by Russian President Putin after restoring the position of Syrian President Bashar Assad makes many wonder whether it would encourage Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to do the same.

But this is a momentary hope as recent events in the Middle East, Europe and the United States seem to indicate.

Leading American presidential candidates Hillary Clinton, Democrat, and Ronald Trump, Republican, and their runners-up have pledged allegiance to Israel.

Moreover, US Vice President Joe Biden, who has just returned from a visit to Israel, and other top American lawmakers will be joining Clinton and Trump at the upcoming annual conference of the pro-Israel lobby known as the American Israel Public Affairs Committee. The conference is scheduled to be held on March 22 in Washington, DC. 

Biden was described by the Jewish Telegraphic Agency as “perhaps the Obama administration’s figure closest to Israel and the pro-Israel lobby”; he also served as “the go-to official to calm the waters closest to Israel during the many periods of tension” between President Barack Obama and the Israeli prime minister.

Israel was seemingly unappreciative of what the French government has been trying to do to arrive at a peace settlement between Palestinians and Israelis.

It said that it was struggling to “understand the logic” of the French peace initiative, despite a meeting this week between France’s envoy, Pierre Vimont, and Foreign Ministry Director General Dore Gold.

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas welcomed the French initiative, but Netanyahu voiced opposition and insisted on direct talks between the parties, without preconditions and less international involvement. 

An unidentified French diplomat said the initiative was required because of the risk of a “powder keg” exploding.

Israel, according to Reuters, was particularly worried by the stance of former French foreign minister Laurent Fabius who said France would recognise a Palestinian state automatically if the peace initiative fails; he has since toned it down.

Having twice failed to achieve Palestinian-Israeli peace, Ori Lewis of  Reuter wrote this week, the Obama administration is discussing ways to help preserve the prospects of an increasingly threatened two-state solution.

US Secretary of State John Kerry revealed last Sunday that the United States was looking for a way to break the deadlock between Israelis and Palestinians, acknowledging that by itself it could not find a solution.

June 6, 2017, will mark the 50th  anniversary of the 1967 war which ended with Israel conquering the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, as well as the Sinai Peninsula and the Golan Heights, a region bordering Syria.

Uri Savir, write in Al Monitor: “The current Palestinian despair is unprecedented and is a function of the unchallenged Israeli settlement expansion. Palestinians believe that with every day that goes by, reaching statehood becomes a greater challenge, given the ongoing increase in the number of Israelis living east of the Green Line. In addition, they are gravely disappointed with the Arab world… .

“They [also] have no hope that US President Barack Obama, in his last year in office, will act in any concrete way, and they consider with great criticism and apprehension the American election campaigns… Hillary Clinton is viewed by the Palestinian leadership as someone who will endorse most of Israel’s positions while giving lip service to a two-state solution… .

“It is within this context that they have apparently decided to move on their own toward a unilateral declaration of statehood in June 2017 and to fight Israel for the fulfilment of their cause.”

Savir concluded: “Talking to senior Palestinian officials, one comes away with a sense that a great determination to move alone, both diplomatically and with violence, is currently emerging — 50 years of occupation seems more than they can tolerate.”

The writer is a Washington-based columnist.