The new Middle East

Since October 7 last year and the beginning of the Israeli war of aggression on Gaza, the concept of a "New Middle East" has emerged, signifying that what started in the war-torn Strip  will not end there. This creates a strategic and political dilemma, as Israel’s deterrence strategy has gained momentum, particularly after Donald Trump’s rise to the US presidency. Trump, regarded as a "catalyst president," has been a staunch supporter of Israel, which could accelerate developments in the region at an unprecedented pace.

The Middle East has long held geopolitical, strategic, and economic importance for global powers and projects. However, it suffers from a political vacuum, a lack of unity, and the absence of a shared Arab vision, primarily due to the failure to define a common enemy. Against this backdrop, I reflect on Jordan and its national project as it enters its second century.

Trump’s Return and Jordan-US Relations

Trump’s return to the White House poses new challenges for Jordan, which is grappling with economic hardships and the repercussions of the war on Gaza. During Trump’s first term, Jordan received significant financial aid from the US but diplomatic relations were unmistakably tense, primarily due his Middle East Peace Plan, known at the time as "deal of the century."

The difference today lies in the worsening security situation in the region and changes in Syria’s ruling system. These shifts may position Jordan as a pivotal player in fostering relations among regional actors, especially given its record of minimal conflicts with neighboring states.

This presents Jordan with a major challenge. To become more effective in regional security and political coordination, Jordan must send a clear message to Washington that regional security can only be achieved through the establishment of a Palestinian state along the June 4, 1967, borders. This could help Jordan regain its central role in shaping regional dynamics.

Jordan and the New Middle East Project

Jordan faces strategic uncertainty, particularly following the recent events in Syria, which previously served as a strategic depth for the kingdom. Over the past decade, Syrian events have deeply affected Jordan-Syria relations. However, the current reality involves numerous international actors using Syrian territory as a battleground, which could significantly undermine regional security.

What follows October 7 is markedly different from what preceded it. Israeli prime minister Netanyahu’s efforts to "secure Israel" will not cease until all strategic threats are neutralized. This includes intelligence operations to eliminate risks, potentially extending these activities into Iran to internalize the crisis there.

The shape of the new Middle East hinges on developments in Syria, particularly the dynamics surrounding the Syrian state's reconstruction, and the strategic interplay involving Iran and Russia. These factors will significantly influence the region’s future.

Jordan, as a nation of moderation and stability, boasts strong regional and international ties. It can leverage these connections to spearhead a new initiative that promotes peace and stability, transforming challenges into opportunities.

Future Scenarios

As events in the region unfold, all scenarios remain possible. However, the most likely scenario is the establishment of a federal Syria. This would be accompanied by continued Israeli intelligence operations within Syria, exploiting the chaos and power vacuum there. Limited operations in Iraq could also occur, though this scenario is less probable due to the geographic distance and Israel’s reluctance to face unpredictable outcomes.

The Arab-Israeli normalisation drive Trump had launched is expected to progress slowly during his second term, while some regional actors may adopt strategic realignments to serve their interests. Like other states, Jordan will continue to base its political decisions on the principle of safeguarding its national interests.