Children's well-being 'under threat' in 2050, warns UNICEF

UNITED NATIONS, United States — Demographic shifts, worsening climate change and rapid technological transformation risk creating a bleak future for youth in the mid-21st century, the United Nations agency for children warned Tuesday in an annual report.

"Children are experiencing a myriad of crises, from climate shocks to online dangers, and these are set to intensify in the years to come," Catherine Russell, executive director of UNICEF, wrote in a statement marking the release of the agency's annual report.

"Decades of progress, particularly for girls, are under threat." 

This year, UNICEF uses its report to project forward to 2050 identifying three "major trends" that in addition to unpredictable conflicts pose threats to children unless policymakers make changes.

The first risk is demographic change, with the number of children expected to remain similar to current figures of 2.3 billion, but they will represent a smaller share of the larger and ageing global population of around 10 billion.

While the proportion of children will decline across all regions, their numbers will explode in some of the poorest areas, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa.

This offers the potential to boost economic growth, but only if the new young population has access to quality education, health care, and jobs, UNICEF notes.

In some developed countries, children could make up less than 10 percent of the population by 2050, raising concerns about their "visibility" and rights in societies focused on aging populations.

The second threat is climate change.

If current greenhouse gas emission trends continue, by 2050 children could face eight times more heatwaves than in 2000, three times more extreme flooding, and 1.7 times more wildfires, UNICEF projects.

New technology, particularly artificial intelligence, has the potential to power new innovation and progress but could also widen existing inequalities between rich and poor countries.

An estimated 95 percent of people in developed nations have internet access, compared to just 26 percent in the least developed, often due to a lack of electricity, connectivity, or devices.

"Failure to remove barriers for children in these countries, especially for those living in the poorest households, means letting an already disadvantaged generation fall even further behind," according to UNICEF.

Being connected also carries risks. The unchecked proliferation of new technologies poses threats to children and their personal data, making them vulnerable to online predators.

"Children of the future face many risks, but what we wanted to demonstrate is that the solutions are in the hands of todays decision-makers," Cecile Aptel, deputy director of UNICEF's research division, told AFP.