Scars that cannot be overlooked

The result of the Hamas-Israeli first round of mini-wars that lasted for 28 days ended up in a draw.

Hamas failed to force Israel to end the blockade imposed on Gaza. Israel failed to bomb Hamas into total surrender or demilitarise it.

The Cairo talks are following the paradigm of the Paris talks, leading nowhere; its decisions are not binding on anybody, so the two sides will get back to the status quo ante.

A few days ago, Amman witnessed a rally of nearly 50,000 supporters of the Jordanian Islamic Movement, which raised the Jordanian flags and applauded what they called “the great victory of Hamas against the enemy”.

The Arab media were unanimous in expressing support for Gazans, even Shiite print media, supposed to be against Hamas.

Many analysts considered the mere survival of Qassam fighters, following such a long time of beating and bombardment by the fourth strongest army in the world, a victory.

It might be misleading to assume that the resumed war will end just like the ones in 2009 or in 2012.

The geopolitical changes in the region will influence the outcome of the renewed round; the Qatari-Turkish axis will take a toll on Gaza as it is still operating in Libya and Syria.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu must have realised by now the futility of counting on Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas or his Fateh supporters to be able to replace Hamas in Gaza.

The other options, of replacing Hamas with any Palestinian group, including the Iranian-linked Islamic Jihad, are too distasteful to his orthodox political ideology, and are too pernicious to the future security of Israel.

Pragmatic politics require a Hamas neighbour rather than an Iranian extension of Hizbollah or a new foothold for the Iraqi Islamic State, which has its camps bombed regularly in Deraa, Syria, only 10 kilometres from the Jordanian border.

The two combatants adhered to an unannounced stratagem: not to deal each other the fatal blow, which explains why Hamas’ subterranean infrastructure of command and control centre was spared the bombardment, while Al Fajr Iranian missiles, with its range of 175 kilometres, did not hit airports or population centres.

This tacit understanding between the two main protagonists might be the solid base for any future accommodation or interaction, since both have the self-deluding image of being a winner in front of their constituencies.

The material damage does not constitute an impediment to any future understanding between Hamas and Israel. Both sides know that either Washington or some Arab capitals will compensate for the damage. 

But the death toll, with its deep scars for both sides, will never be overlooked.

June Kunugi, representative of the United Nations Children Fund in Palestine, submitted her report on August 8, in which she says that 427 Gazan children were killed during the 28-day war and 2,744 children were injured. 

It is the loss of human life that counts most.