Resolving long-standing water dispute with Syria now 'highly urgent', given northern neighbour's new power shift– experts

AMMAN — As Jordan grapples with historically dry winter and dwindling water resources, violations of water-sharing agreements by neighboring countries are becoming an increasingly urgent concern.

Former Water Minister Hazim El Naser, in an interview with The Jordan Times, highlighted Syria’s repeated violations of agreements concerning the Yarmouk River, which he said “can cover a large part of Jordan’s needs.”

Jordan River's largest tributary, the Yarmouk arises in southwestern Syria and flows in a southwesterly direction.

Jordan and Syria signed the 1953 Joint Arab Agreement for managing the Yarmouk River Basin with Syria (amended in 1987).

El Naser highlighted the "continuous breaches by Syria's former regime [of Bashar Al Assad] which constructed additional dams along the Yarmouk River, drastically reducing Jordan’s water supply."

“The previous regime ignored the agreement,” El Naser said, explaining that Syria built 49 dams, nearly double the agreed limit, diverting most of the river’s water."

Excessive groundwater extraction on Syria’s side has further worsened the crisis, drying up more than 12,000 wells and causing an annual loss of 180 to 200 million cubic meters of water for Jordan, he added.

“This loss is nearly equivalent to the full capacity of Jordan’s multibillion-dinar National Water Carrier Project and twice the volume of the Disi Water Conveyance Project in Amman,” El Naser noted.

The evolution of water agreements

According to the United Nations Treaty Series, the 1953 agreement was intended to promote regional cooperation, ensure fair water distribution, and support irrigation projects through the construction of a joint dam near Maqarin.

An amendment in 1987, according to the International Water Law, introduced detailed specifications for the Wahdah Dam and modified water-sharing terms. However, Jordan was left bearing the full financial burden for the dam, while Syria was granted permission to build up to 25 additional dams.

Oversight was transferred to a new commission with limited authority and no arbitration power.

Further negotiations in 2001 led to a reduction in the planned capacity of the Wahdah Dam. When construction concluded in 2005, water flow to the dam fell far short of Jordan’s expectations, according to a Fanack Water report on shared water resources in Jordan.

Diplomatic efforts and immediate solutions

El Naser called for stronger diplomatic efforts, particularly given Syria’s recent political shifts, to mitigate the economic and political consequences of these violations.

Currently, he reported that Jordan’s dams hold just 22 per cent of their total capacity, 69 million cubic meters out of a possible 366 million.

El Naser warned that Jordan’s per capita water availability, now at 61 cubic meters per year, far below the water poverty line of 500 cubic meters, is expected to decline even further.

While the National Water Carrier Project remains a long-term solution, El Naser said that its completion is still seven years away.

In the meantime, El Naser urged the rehabilitation of non-operational wells, expanding the use of treated wastewater for agriculture, and tapping into deep groundwater sources.

On the demand side, he called for public awareness campaigns to promote conservation, curb illegal well drilling, and combat water network tampering. He also suggested tax incentives to encourage the adoption of water-saving technologies.

On the supply side, he suggested rehabilitating 120 to 150 non-operational wells managed by the Yarmouk and Miyahouna water companies and redirecting 20 million cubic meters of water from drainage stations in northern Jordan toward agriculture to free up fresh water for cities.

Additionally, he proposed investing in brackish water desalination to increase available resources.

Environmental and technical challenges

Omar Shoshan, President of the Jordan Environment Union, analyzed the environmental, technical, and political challenges surrounding Jordan’s shared water resources with Syria.

“There is always an issue with shared water sources, particularly those originating in Syria,” Shoshan said, specifically referencing the Yarmouk River and Al Azraq Water Basin.

According to the Jordan Journal of Earth and Environmental Sciences (JJEES), the Azraq Basin covers approximately 12,710 square kilometers, with 94 per cent in Jordan, 5 percent in Syria, and 1 percent in Saudi Arabia.

The JJEES stated that the highest elevation in the basin is Jebel El-Arab in Syria (1,576 meters above sea level), while the lowest point is in the Azraq depression, at around 500 meters above sea level.

On the Syrian side, according to Shoshan, a dam now holds much of the surface water that once flowed naturally into Jordan’s Azraq Oasis.

He added that Syria has also drilled deep artesian wells, further reducing Jordan’s share of the basin's water.

The basin’s natural recharge rate is estimated at 22 to 25 million cubic meters annually, yet withdrawals amount to nearly 65 million cubic meters per year, 40 million for agriculture and 25 million for drinking. “This over-extraction is depleting the basin and altering its physical composition”.

He criticized illegal wells, unsustainable farming practices such as fodder cultivation in the Azraq highlands, and poor reservoir management.

His proposed strategy focuses on three key areas: stronger political engagement, better domestic water management, and securing climate funding.

He also linked Jordan’s water scarcity to climate change, citing the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) forecast that the Middle East will experience increased drought and shifting rainfall patterns, further threatening water supply and food security.

Financial constraints further complicate Jordan’s water sector. Shoshan noted that former U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to freeze foreign aid under the “America First” policy significantly impacted global funding, including Jordan’s water projects.

He urged the government to intensify efforts to secure funding, particularly for the National Water Carrier Project, which would requires up to JD4 billion, according to the project manager.

The ongoing instability in the Middle East continues to put pressure on Jordan's water sector. Shoshan pointed out that successive waves of migration, including 1.35 million Syrian refugees, have significantly strained available resources.

“The region’s instability has worsened Jordan’s water crisis,” he said. “In 1948, Jordan had one of the highest per capita water shares in the region. Today, it has one of the lowest in the world.”