Impact of climate change on cultural heritage: Middle East at risk

AMMAN — The climate change directly affects monuments in different parts of the world. The current climate of the Middle East ranges from mostly temperate in its northern half to extremely arid in its southern half.

Precipitation falls mainly November through April, the most abundant amounts falling in the region’s northern half. However, due to climate change, some winters are colder and with more precipitation. For a few years, rain fell in May and early June which was not the case 20-30 years ago.

These environmental conditions, especially the timing and abundance of precipitation, play a key role in the region’s economies, whether industry, tourism, or, perhaps most importantly, agriculture, noted Professor Benjamin Porter from Berkeley University.

Porter added that the extent to which countries depend on agriculture for food and jobs varies across the region and is contingent on the availability of arable land, labour forces, and proximity to markets.

"Exacerbating the current economic situation even more are the region’s relatively high unemployment and underemployment levels coupled with the destabilizing events of the past decade, including international wars, civil wars, and the Arab Spring that have introduced volatility and uncertainty into local and national governance," Porter underlined.

The professor noted that models developed in the last decade that considers a two- and four-degree increase in global temperature levels before 2050 together project substantial changes in global and regional climate patterns.

These changes will impact the Middle East’s environment in several ways.

Annual summer temperatures will increase and episodes of intense heat will become more common. Winter precipitation levels will also become more erratic; while the southern half of the region will see decreased levels, the northern half may experience extreme unpredictable storms that could cause flooding, Porter elaborated.

The professor added that high-altitudes now pack in the northern mountain zones that supply major river systems (e.g., the Euphrates, Tigris, Orontes) will have reduced input, leading to downstream supply being reduced.

"Sub-surface aquifers that supply fresh-water springs and oases will not be as fully recharged. At the same time, sea levels will rise, inundating coastlines and the fresh-water river systems that drain into the Mediterranean Sea, the Red Sea, and the Arabian Gulf," Porter explained.

Unpredictable extreme weather events, such as spikes in summer temperature and sudden winter rainfalls, will further stress the region.

Studies considering global climate change impacts on human populations often point out that the Middle East will be among the hardest hit regions in the world, regardless of whether a two-, four-, or greater degree change is achieved; and these drying conditions will stress the region’s rural agricultural industries that are mainly based on crop and livestock production.

The contagious disease typical for arid environment will also increase.

"At first glance, it may appear insensitive to reflect on the future of cultural heritage in the Middle East given the severe impacts the climate crisis will have on the region’s peoples."

"However, arbitrary the constructed category of cultural heritage may be, the objects, places, and, at times, practices that constitute it are nonetheless non-renewable resources that play an important role in the quality of life in the Middle East," the professor highlighted.

Porter added that many cultural heritage sites serve as the basis for cultural, religious, and national identities, leading countries and their international partners to make significant investments in maintaining them.

Despite its deep and sometimes unfortunate entanglements with politics, Porter continued, cultural heritage is, ultimately, maintained by institutions, communities and individuals existing in webs of often-problematic relationships, large and small, a point that Meskell has illustrated in her rigorous treatment of UNESCO

"Cultural heritage has served and continues to serve as a key economic resource in the Middle East," Porter said.

"The United Nations World Tourism Organisation’s report on the Middle East and North Africa region recorded a 10 per cent growth from the previous year’s level [figures from 2019, prior to the COVID-19 pandemic] in international tourist arrivals in the region," the professor noted.

"This growth during the past few years signalled the region’s recovery from internal conflicts and economic decline during the previous decade as well as the robust economies of developed nations with people with spending power to visit the region," Porter concluded.