Brotherhood suffering declining popularity, troubled ties with gov’t, but ‘will not be banned’

AMMAN — The recent arrest of a key Muslim Brotherhood figure has exposed the influence of internal disputes within the largest opposition group, but is not likely to lead to a serious showdown between the Islamists and the government, or a ban on the Brotherhood, sources agreed.

Officials interviewed by The Jordan Times insisted on dealing with the case of Zaki Bani Rsheid, the group’s deputy overall leader, as an isolated legal issue, because the hawkish leader violated the Anti-Terrorism Law by attacking the UAE in a Facebook post.

They added that the government is not targeting the group, but is simply enforcing the law “to protect its ties with an important ally”. 

This detention came “in line with the law and those who breach the law must be held accountable, especially those who jeopardise national interests”, said Minister of State for Media Affairs and Communications Mohammad Momani, who is also the government spokesperson. He stopped short of commenting on speculations that the incident would lead to further escalation and a scenario where the Brotherhood is banned.

Another government source warned the group that if such behaviour continues, it will find itself isolated with diminishing popularity, explaining that Bani Rsheid’s remarks could have had an adverse effect on at least a million Jordanians, referring to the 225,000 nationals working in Dubai and their families. 

“We highly regard the relationship between Jordan and the UAE and will not allow anything to harm this relationship,” the source, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told The Jordan Times.

Analysts agree that the Muslim Brotherhood has recently hit a new low and is “becoming weaker”. Had Bani Rsheid said these statements three years ago at the onset of the so-called “Arab Spring”, and consequently been arrested, the Muslim Brotherhood would have been bolder in its campaign for his release, according to political analyst Ibrahim Gharaibeh.

Gharaibeh, a researcher at the Centre for Strategic Studies and a columnist at Al Ghad daily, added that the government would not have even thought of detaining him in the first place.

However, the situation is different now. “The Jordanian street is not protecting the movement any more, especially after their fall in Egypt,” Gharaibeh told The Jordan Times over the phone.

Another Al Ghad columnist, Fahed Khitan, said that in addition to the declining clout of the group at the regional level, after its loss in Egypt and the fact that Gulf countries have labelled it a terrorist group, there are cracks in the internal unity of Jordan’s Brotherhood, caused by bickering and a power struggle. 

“This is one of the reasons why they are keeping a low profile instead of raising their voices demanding the freedom of their leader.” 

Khitan said Bani Rsheid is a controversial figure even within his group, with other leaders calling on him to step aside. 

According to the analyst, the Muslim Brotherhood is losing popularity in the street, which, he said, was obvious through the low turnout of participants in a demonstration they organised on Friday, where around 1,000 people participated, compared to at least 5,000 who used to take to the street in major rallies during the peak of the Arab popular revolts in 2011.

Khitan is also not optimistic about any improvement of the government-Muslim Brotherhood relationship in the near future, but that does not mean the group, which was established in the mid-1940s, will be banned, he said.

Oraib Rentawi, director of Al Quds Centre for Political Studies, agreed that the group would not likely be disbanded, but he gave a gloomier outlook as to its ties with authorities.

He said that the Brotherhood in Jordan and other countries should change their “patronising rhetoric” under the current circumstances. 

“The group should open up to civil society organisations and even secular groups, but instead they are approaching and building coalitions with extremists such as Salafist Jihadi groups as in the case of Egypt,” Rentawi said.

He also agrees that the detention of Bani Rsheid came while the Islamists were suffering declining popularity in the region.

Brotherhood leaders differed in their reaction.

For Murad Adayleh, Muslim Brotherhood spokesperson, the group is not isolating itself but is being “targeted”. 

Adayleh said the detention of Bani Rsheid was meant as a “direct blow to the group and an attempt to weaken our national role in fighting corruption among other demands”.

The same message was conveyed at a press conference held by Islamic Action Front (IAF) Secretary General Mohammad Zyoud, who denounced the arrest of Bani Rsheid. 

But for the more moderate Hamzah Mansour, former IAF chief, despite the tense relationship between the government and the group, a ban is a far-fetched possibility.

He also noted that the group is utilising all channels available to call for the release of their leader, declining to say whether the group is planning to escalate.

This was also echoed by Gharaibeh who said that the government needs the Muslim Brotherhood, “which has been always an ally of the establishment”.

He explained that the group sometimes serves the government’s political agenda, and the Islamists have more freedoms to operate in Jordan than in other countries.

Meanwhile, both Adayleh and a government source confirmed that there are no direct negotiations between the two parties regarding the release of Bani Rsheid.

However, Adayleh revealed that the group is in talks with former officials who are in direct contact with the incumbent government and authorities for a way out.

There was also a reference to the mediation issue in an article by columnist Muhannad Mubaideen.

Ad Dustour Arabic daily’s commentator said that a prominent figure he did not name was approached by Brotherhood representatives to reach a settlement with the government.

He added that with the onset of the Arab Spring, the group used to call for negotiations with the King, but now, the situation is different and we “find them looking for mediators with the government”.

Speaking for the official stand on this issue, Minister of Political and Parliamentary Affairs Khaled Kalaldeh reiterated that authorities are only implementing the law, dealing with Bani Rsheid in the same way they treat any citizen who is suspected of violating the law, assuring that the Islamist group is not targeted in a crackdown. 

“We are implementing the law. Bani Rsheid represented himself with the remarks he posted and not his party,” Kalaldeh told The Jordan Times.