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AMMAN — In a significant escalation, Israel’s military on Friday launched a large-scale airstrike operation, named “Lion’s Rage,” against Iranian targets.
Dozens of fighter jets reportedly hit nuclear research facilities and military command centers across central and western Iran in the early hours of the morning.
Iran confirmed the death of several senior figures in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), including high-ranking commanders and nuclear scientists.
Iranian state media described the assault as “painful and unprecedented,” with officials stating that the attack was one of the deepest Israeli incursions into Iranian territory to date.
The Israeli military said the strikes targeted nuclear infrastructure, claiming the death of IRGC Commander Hossein Salami along with other senior officials.
In retaliation, Iran launched approximately 100 drones toward Israel. The Israeli military reported that most of the drones were intercepted, with limited damage to Israeli territory.
In Washington, US President Donald Trump called on Iran to return to negotiations over its nuclear programme, warning that further Israeli strikes could be “even more brutal.”
Despite the scale of the offensive, analysts, in remarks to The Jordan Times on Friday, said that the likelihood of a full-scale regional war remains low. Instead, they point to shifting strategic calculations and a possible repositioning of forces across the region.
“Iran knows the cost of war, and avoids it”
Chairman of board of Al Rai and former minister of media, Samih Maaitah said that Iran is unlikely to seek open war.
“Iranians are among the peoples who understand the true price of war. Their leadership learned from the Iran-Iraq war that direct confrontation is not a winning strategy,” he told The Jordan Times.
“For over 40 years, Tehran has avoided engaging directly and instead built a network of proxy forces to do its bidding. Their first response to this Israeli strike, a few drones that were intercepted, shows they will likely react with restraint.”
Maaitah added, “If this pattern holds, we can expect calibrated Iranian responses, but not full escalation. In fact, the strike may create space for the Americans to reopen negotiations with Iran, especially if Trump feels less pressure to choose between diplomacy and war.”
“This was a strategic execution, not a message”
Professor of political science and former minister of culture , Mohammad Abu Rumman said that the operation was a deliberate attempt to disassemble Iran’s strategic depth.
“This wasn’t a symbolic move, his was a strategic decapitation. Israel struck the scientific and military brains of the Iranian system,” he said.
He noted that the intelligence breach was extraordinary “This strike could not have happened without deep penetration. The fact that Mossad reportedly had a drone base inside Iran tells us everything about Israel’s intelligence edge.”
Abu Rumman added “Israel is no longer just defending itself. It is asserting regional dominance and signalling to every player in the region, we can reach you, no matter where you are.”
“A new Middle East is in the making”
President of the Jordanian Political Science Association, Khaled Shneikat described the region as undergoing a fundamental transformation.
“We are on the brink of something entirely new. If Israel succeeds in breaking Iran’s power, it will redraw the balance of power in the Middle East,” he said.
“Trump’s approach is clear: Iran must either accept the terms on the table or face destruction. If this logic continues, we could see Israeli Pax, “ a peace built not on compromise, but on domination.”
Shneikat also noted that most regional powers have long lost independent decision-making.
“Since the 1990s, Middle Eastern states have come under increasing foreign military influence. The US has bases scattered across the region. This strike may accelerate a new order in which Israel defines the region’s agenda.”
“Security will trump reform, and polarise societies”
The strategic security expert, Omar Raddad said that while the risk of escalation remains, Iran’s options are limited.
“The chances of broader conflict have increased, but Israel seems to be limiting its actions to specific military and nuclear targets. That suggests it wants to avoid regional war,” he said.
Al Raddad warned of internal implications across the Arab world.
“Governments will shift their priorities toward national security. Reform efforts may take a backseat, and defence budgets will expand,” he explained. “At the same time, societies may become increasingly polarised, with foreign affairs taking precedence over domestic unity.”
Despite visible tension between Netanyahu and Trump, Al Raddad said that both leaders are aligned on strategy “They share a vision of confronting Iran, even if their methods differ.”
Deputy Programme Director and Senior Policy Fellow for MENA at the European Council on Foreign Relations Ellie Geranmayeh noted that “the unprecedented Israeli attacks came 48 hours before US Special Envoy Steve Wifkoff was due to meet Iran’s foreign minister for a critical sixth round of nuclear negotiations. While some Israeli officials argue that these attacks aimed to strengthen the US leverage in the diplomatic path, it is clear their timing and large-scale nature was intended to completely derail talks.”
As of Friday evening, Iran had not issued an official statement detailing the nature or timing of its response.