US presidential race: A toss-up between Trump, Biden

US President Donald Trump launched last week in Orlando, Florida, his bid for reelection for another four-year term with a visceral attack on his Democratic opponents, accusing them of all sorts of “un-American” policies and platforms.

The Orlando venue, where Trump’s reelection campaign was officially announced, was packed with enthusiasts and loyal supporters, who emotionally demonstrated their emotional support to Trump’s slogan of “making America great”.

To be sure, Trump has some achievements to brag about, especially with regard to the strong US economy, low taxes and an exceptionally low unemployment rate. For many Americans, that is where their main interests lie and would probably cast their votes once again for the incumbent president on that basis, despite the numerous charges levelled against him, including corruption, tax evasion, obstruction of justice and collusion with Russia during the 2016 presidential election.

There are about 20 candidates from the Democratic Party vying for the White House, and this fact alone weakens the chances of his opponents to win a decisive victory against him. Instead of scattering their support, Democrat candidates need to rally around one or two candidates in order to enjoy a reasonable chance of winning the 2020 presidential election. 

Recent opinion polls give the main Democratic candidate, Joe Biden, a slight lead over Trump, but this can change from day to day. President Trump has succeeded in engulfing his country in many conflicts, including over the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, Venezuela, Iran, China and North Korea, and they are fraught with untold dangers, with the Iranian tension in particular threatening to explode into open warfare in the Gulf region.

The chances are still in favour of Biden to win the next presidential election, but many things can happen between now and then that would change the outcome of the next elections. Both Trump and Biden are “seniors” agewise, which dampens their respective chances of winning the election.

In the final analysis, it all depends on how Biden manages his election campaign from now until election day, being the relatively unknown entity, and whether he can overcome the image that he is too old or too liberal to govern the country.

Trump’s profile is now familiar to all US voters, and there is little room for additional surprises. Voters know already all that is needed to know about Trump, with no surprises that can still emerge from his reelection bid.

Against this backdrop it is still a toss-up between Biden and Trump in winning the next presidential election, with Biden enjoying a slight lead until this point in time.