South Syria clashes, a test to Jordan’s security

Jordan’s efforts to pacify Syria’s southern front by striking a truce between moderate rebel groups and Syrian government forces in the Daraa governorate appear to have been scuttled, following a sudden flare up of violence that started two weeks ago.

Amman wants to secure southern Syria against incursions by Daesh and other terrorist groups. Independent reports are sketchy, but it seems rebel groups, led by Jabhat Fateh Al Sham (formerly Al Nusra Front), along with other Islamist-leaning factions, including members of the Free Syrian Army (FSA), launched a surprise attack against government forces wedged in the heart of Daraa city’s Manshia district.

It is the first major confrontation to take place in almost two years.

Groups associated with the so-called “Southern Front”, with ties to Jordan, did not participate in the hostilities. Other rebel groups, which include Ahrar Al Sham, appear to be aiming at preempting a surprise assault by government forces to retake the city of Daraa and regain control of border crossings with Jordan.

In response to the latest offensive, Syrian and Russian fighter jets have been carrying out bombing raids against rebel positions in the old city of Daraa, not far from the Jordanian border.

Last week, shells fell on the outskirts of the town of Ramtha, in northern Jordan, prompting the authorities to close schools and to assure worried citizens that the Jordanian side of the border was secure.

The flare-up in southern Syria is particularly worrying for Jordan, as it could change the delicate strategic reality in that part of the war-torn country.

Jordan had consistently denied reports by Damascus that it was involved in training Syrian rebels in the south or supplying them with weapons.

But last December, Lt. Gen. Mahmoud Freihat, chairman of the Joint Chiefs-of-Staff, told BBC Arabic TV that Jordan had trained some elements in the Syrian opposition to fight Daesh militants, and not regime forces.

He also said that Jordan was ready to open border crossings with Syria once government forces take over. His statements were interpreted as a conciliatory message to the Damascus regime.

News reports spoke of high-level meetings between senior Syrian and Jordanian security officials in Amman last year.

There are signs that Jordan, which is a member of the US-led anti-Daesh coalition and is part of the Friends of Syria group, is now charting a new course on Syria.

That change started with Russia’s military intervention in Syria in September 2015, which Jordan supported.

Amman has insisted that only a political solution can work to end Syria’s six-year civil war and that Moscow’s role and influence were instrumental to achieving a peaceful deal.

It is understood that King Abdullah and President Vladimir Putin reached a “gentlemen’s agreement” on southern Syria last year, to spare it from military operations, allowing Jordan to use its influence over the “Southern Front” to maintain a relative degree of calm.

More recently, Jordan became the only Arab country to be invited to the Astana technical talks on maintaining and extending the ceasefire agreement in Syria.

During a meeting in the Kazakh capital in February, Amman proposed to include a number of moderate rebel groups in southern Syria in the proposed peace talks.

Moreover, Jordan has been waiting for further details on US President Donald Trump’s proposal to set up safe zones in Syria.

The establishment of such zones in southern Syria would serve a number of Jordanian priorities, including the possible repatriation of Syrian refugees, while preventing Daesh militants from infiltrating its borders.

Jordan has banned refugees in two ad-hoc camps on the Syrian side of the border from crossing into the Kingdom for fear that they could include Daesh elements.

The stability of the Syrian front cuts right to the heart of Jordan’s security. Amman is especially concerned about the presence of Daesh affiliate Jaish Khaled Ibn Al Walid in the Yarmouk River basin, few kilometres from Jordan’s borders.

This well-armed militia group has used the latest confrontations in the city of Daraa to expand its presence in the western countryside of the governorate, close to both Jordan and Israel-occupied Golan Heights.

Jordan had vowed to take action against this imminent threat, but it is not clear what military measures will be adopted.

Furthermore, as the offensive against Daesh intensifies in northern and eastern Syria, and in Mosul, in Iraq, Jordan is worried that fleeing militants, including Jordanian jihadists, will retreat to southern Syria and breach its borders.

Adding to Amman’s concern is the fact that Iranian militias and Hizbollah fighters are also establishing footholds in southern Syria.  Jordan’s influence over rebel groups and tribal fighters in southern Syria is being put to the test.

Ideally, Jordan would prefer to see an understanding being struck between government troops and moderate rebel forces, allowing the former to take control of border crossings on the Syrian side.

The recent flare-up has derailed such efforts for now.

There has been no official comment on the fighting in southern Syria by the Amman government.

Syrian President Bashar Assad had once described the situation in Daraa as “a Jordanian problem”. This is becoming more evident today than at any other time before.

The writer is a journalist and political commentator based in Amman.