Iran and Trump

The message from Washington to Iran is simple and direct: there is a new sheriff in town and he means business!

President Donald Trump did not mince words when he told Fox News this weekend that he believed Iran was a terrorist state and that it was playing with fire.

A day later, in an interview with ABC News, Vice President Mike Pence said “Iran would do well to look at the calendar and realise there’s a new president in the Oval Office. And Iran would do well not to test the resolve of this new president.”

Few days before, US Defence Secretary James Mattis called Iran “the single biggest state sponsor of terrorism in the world” and in the wake of Iran’s firing of a mid-range ballistic missile last week, Trump’s National Security Advisor Michael Flynn interrupted a White House press briefing to condemn the missile test, saying that the administration was “officially putting Iran on notice”.

These warnings were followed by action when the US imposed sanctions on Iran and US officials were said to be looking into adopting additional measures.

During his election campaign Trump repeatedly attacked the nuclear deal that the Obama administration together with Russia, UK, China, France and Germany struck with Tehran in 2015.

Earlier this week he again described the deal as “terrible”, adding that it was the “worst deal ever negotiated”.

But he stopped short of saying if he intends to pull out of it.

In response, Iran insisted that it would not renegotiate the agreement and that its missile test was not in breach of UN Security Council resolution that bars it from testing ballistic missiles that are capable of delivering nuclear weapons.

And in a show of defiance, this week Iran conducted military exercises, testing missiles and radar systems.

President Hassan Rouhani, under pressure to respond, especially following the US travel ban that included Iran in addition to six Muslim majority countries, described Trump as “a political novice”.

This war of words and what could follow as a result should be taken seriously by countries in the region and the international community at large.

Regardless of how Trump feels about the nuclear deal, he is right when he points to Tehran’s meddling in Iraq and Syria.

Flynn had blamed Tehran for an attack on a Saudi frigate that was carried out by Iranian-backed Houhti militants last month.

In contrast to the Obama administration, which had failed to confront Iran’s notorious interference in Iraqi politics, its support of Houthi outlaws in Yemen and its military involvement in Syria’s civil war, Trump appears to be eager to take action.

One approach that the White House is looking into is to weaken Moscow’s ties with Tehran.

As both Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin seek a positive start to their relationship, the US wants to take advantage of the tension between Moscow and Tehran that erupted following the fall of eastern Aleppo and Russia’s commitment to a political solution to the Syrian crisis through the Astana process.

Iran is suspicious of the Russian-Turkish entente on Syria and was pressured to support the ceasefire agreement there.

But Moscow, which will receive Rouhani soon, will not sacrifice its relations with Iran so easily.

Moscow may view its ties with the Islamic Republic as “a necessary evil”, but it will preserve that relationship in order to apply pressure on Tehran over Syria and other issues.

While Trump’s aggressive position on Iran will please its Gulf neighbours, attempts to engage Tehran through dialogue should not stop.

The GCC had taken the initiative by delivering a message from the emir of Kuwait, on behalf of the six-nation group, underlining the need to improve relations.

Iranian leaders should embrace this gesture and realise that reconciliation with their neighbours, especially Saudi Arabia, will serve the interests of the region and spare it further instability.

On the other hand, it is important to distinguish Arab concerns over Tehran’s regional policies from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s campaign against Iran.

While Gulf states’ complaints against Iran’s interference in their affairs are genuine, Israel is exaggerating perceived threats from Tehran to deflect attention from its continued occupation of Palestinian lands.

As the struggle between Iran’s hardliners and moderates rages on, Trump’s latest attacks will benefit the former.

And as the hardliners seek to respond through military exercises and more missiles testing, the possibility of an incident taking place between the US and Iran in the Gulf waters becomes higher.

What Iranian leaders should understand is that Trump is a counterpuncher and that his impulsiveness will drive him to respond hastily to any provocation.

And as he struggles with low approval ratings and controversy over his executive orders at home, he will be searching for a showdown abroad to demonstrate his resolve and leadership.

It is better for Iran to work sincerely towards reconciliation with its neighbours for the sake of its people and the region as a whole.

The writer is a journalist and political commentator based in Amman.