Essential role

One of the regional countries that needs to be re-engaged in efforts to find and implement a political solution in Syria is Turkey.

Ankara has been a key supporter of the Syrian revolution and a major critic of Syrian President Bashar Assad.

Turkey received the largest number of Syrian refugees over the last five years and played a key role in supporting mainly Islamist rebel groups.

Turkey still hosts the Syrian National Coalition and most of the anti-Damascus opposition groups. Its influence over the Syrian opposition cannot be underestimated and its relations with rebel groups are vital if a final deal is to be accepted.

Turkey has offered its main air base at Incirlik to the US-led anti-Daesh coalition.

Still, Ankara has been blamed for facilitating the passage of thousands of foreign jihadists along its long borders with Syria.

Its critics, including the Syrian regime and Iran, also accuse it of maintaining a special relationship with Daesh. And since the downing of a Russian fighter jet by Turkey on November 24, Moscow has stepped up its diplomatic quarrel with Ankara, accusing it of buying oil from Daesh.

Turkey responded by pointing the finger at the Assad regime, accusing it of receiving oil shipments from Daesh.

Since the downing of the Russian jet, Ankara has stopped all military flights in Syria for fear of a Russian reprisal.

As relations between Turkey and Russia dipped, cooperation between the two over finding a political solution in Syria has also waned.

But Turkey’s role in Syria is of paramount importance.

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been a major foe of the Assad regime.

Initially, he was accused of harbouring territorial interests in Syria and Iraq, and of seeking to expand Turkey’s influence in the region.

The collapse of a peace deal between Ankara and the Kurdistan Workers Party last August changed Erdogan’s priorities, and he waged open war against the movement.

Turkey also fears that Syria’s Kurds, who are backed by the US in their fight against Daesh, will attempt to carve out their own autonomous enclave in the future, thus reviving Kurdish calls for independence from Turkey.

To complicate things further, Turkey is under pressure to respond to repeated Syrian regime and Russian raids against Turkmen minority in northwestern Syria.

The Turkmen rebels have been instrumental in their fight against the Assad regime. For Turkey, attacking Syria’s Turkmen is a red line.

Furthermore, recent Russian-Turkish tensions derailed Erdogan’s plans to establish a safe zone along the Syrian-Turkish border.

Moscow has voiced opposition to such plans and Erdogan never got the US backing that he was seeking. In fact, some believe that NATO’s lip service support of Ankara’s position following the November 24 incident angered Turkey.

The ongoing tensions between Ankara and Moscow could thwart political efforts in Syria.

Turkey has threatened to close its straits to Russian ships if it considers its national security threatened.

A couple of maritime incidents in the Mediterranean and in the straits recently could have developed into confrontations.

Until November, Russia and Turkey had a good working relationship, but President Vladimir Putin always expressed concern over the role played by regional powers in Syria, including Turkey and Saudi Arabia.

Moscow fails to understand that the anti-Assad coalition is fearful of Iran’s hegemony in Iraq and Syria.

The Turkish-Saudi alliance is seen as a proper response to Iran’s regional agenda and its interference in the affairs of Arab countries.

Likewise, Turkey was suspicious of Russia’s direct involvement in Syria last September.

Moscow created its own coalition, comprising Damascus, Baghdad and Tehran, further raising fears in Ankara.

Russia’s military intervention in Syria undercut Ankara’s leverage and ability to manoeuvre. And as Washington and Moscow developed a common outlook on Syria, Turkey and its allies felt it was being abandoned by the Americans.

As the US and Russia decided to leave the future of Assad hanging in the air, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Qatar renewed their commitment to supporting Syrian rebel groups.

It would be wrong to keep Turkey isolated. Ankara’s weight and role in Syria are fundamental to securing a future political settlement.

Its interests as a neighbour of Syria cannot be underestimated. It must be drawn back into the political process as a key player, as it is seen as a counterbalance to Iran’s military involvement in Syria and Iraq.

Without Turkey, there can never be a political solution in Syria.

The Russian position vis-à-vis Turkey is not based entirely on the downing of its fighter jet. Putin believes that isolating Turkey will help the military campaign that he is leading to defend Assad.

But that is both short sighted and wrong.

The Syrian conflict has turned into a proxy war with many players and stakeholders. No genuine settlement to the five-year conflict will come out if major players are excluded.

This was true of Iran and it is now true of Turkey.

The writer is a journalist and political commentator based in Amman.