Brexit: a new path for EU?

The outcome of the historic British referendum on EU membership last week can only be described as a political earthquake the like of which Europe has not seen for decades. 

Even the most fervent of the “Leave” campaign were taken aback by the result, since all pre-vote polls had pointed to a slight lead by the “Remain” camp. The stunning result sent tremors across the world, as markets plunged and investors scratched their heads in search for clues to what the future holds for the United Kingdom and the European Union. 

British Prime Minister David Cameron, who argued feverishly for the “remain” side, announced that he will resign by October. A struggle for the Conservative Party leadership soon ensued with some members coming together to thwart Boris Johnson’s bid to take over a divided party. The opposition Labour Party was not doing any better, as Jeremy Corbyn’s allies abandoned him, calling for his resignation for not doing enough to convince the British public to stay in the EU. 

Scotland, which voted overwhelmingly to stay, is now considering a new independence referendum to break away from the United Kingdom and negotiate its own membership in the EU.

Across the English Channel, shock and uncertainty became the new norm as French and German leaders moved to offer economic incentives to smaller members to avoid a British contagion. Ultra-nationalist and right-wing parties in France, the Netherlands, Germany, Greece and others called for a stay or leave poll. The future of the largest economic and political alliance in modern history is now in doubt as pundits offer various scenarios.

The fallout from the Brexit vote will take a long time to settle. According to EU by-laws, voluntary exit, under Article 50, allows for a two-year process, something that world markets will find difficult to adjust to. Already some economic analysts are talking of a recession taking over the United Kingdom next year. European economies are already in trouble and the burden is being carried by Germany and France. But for how long?

The British vote could pave the way for the break-up of the United Kingdom, if Scotland and Northern Ireland have their way. Secession in Britain would certainly have repercussions in the continent. Spain is already fighting for its territorial unity as Catalonia presses for separation. 

Some analysts believe the EU cannot survive without the United Kingdom. The dynamics of the union will have to change, paving the way for a new restructured alliance.

It is now clear that young Brits voted to stay in the EU while the Leave camp was boosted by those 50 years old and above. The main drivers behind the leave side were immigration, border control and perhaps nostalgia for a sovereign United Kingdom that is independent and free from Europe. 

These sentiments are also bolstering popular support for ultra-nationalist and right-wing parties in France, Germany, the Netherlands and others. The reverberations of the great Syrian refugee influx into Europe cannot be discounted. Turkey’s possible membership, which is a long way from being realised, is also fanning Islamophobia and xenophobia across Europe. There is no doubt that isolationism is digging roots among conservative Europeans. 

Ironically, the spectacular rise of Donald Trump in the United States is also due to manipulating people’s fears from the other. Trump’s promise to build a wall along the borders with Mexico has resonated among mostly poor, less educated, jobless white American voters. 

Immigration has become a central theme in this year’s US presidential elections. Trump has alienated the conservative party establishment by promising to ban Muslims from entering the United States and questioning the integrity of a US born federal judge of Mexican heritage, but again his call was eagerly received by a nationalist tide that believes he can make America great again.

Playing on the fears of a motley group of Christian, nationalist and mono-ethnic followers has divided America, and no matter who wins in the November elections the reality is that isolationism will continue to find new converts.

Back in Europe, the immediate business is to speed up Britain’s exit and deal with its political and social fallout. But that departure, a less than amicable divorce as was described, will leave its mark on the superstructure of the EU alliance for a long time. 

Perhaps the Brexit vote will provide an opportunity for Europeans leaders to put their own house in order. The EU is mainly a success story, but it suffers from serious defects. It has created a super bureaucracy; a cluster of unelected officials who control the heart of this huge machinery from Brussels. 

On the plus side, the EU has brought peace to the old continent and created a huge market where goods and people enjoy unhindered movement. On the other hand, the EU is a political dwarf and its influence on world events can hardly be felt.

The Brexit vote may offer an opportunity to restructure the alliance and preserve the universal values that the union has defended for decades.

The writer is a journalist and political commentator based in Amman.