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‘Difficult to understand’

Apr 27,2016 - Last updated at Apr 27,2016

Since Syria’s fragile ceasefire began on February 27, there have been multiple violations by all parties, as well as changes on the ground involving various forces.

The ceasefire binding the Syrian army and militias not belonging to either Daesh or Al Qaeda’s Jabhat Al Nusra enabled the army to take on both groups, deemed “terrorist” by the UN.

The army ended the destructive Daesh occupation of Palmyra and Qaryatain, regained control of strategic supply routes south of Aleppo and cut connections between Daesh and Turkey.

The army pushed back insurgent forces allied to Al Nusra from the hill villages in northern Latakia and cut links between the Damascus suburbs of Daraya and Muadamiya.

The aim of this operation was to prevent the infiltration of insurgents from Daraya into Muadamiya, which had reached a truce and reconciliation agreement with the government.

Government forces also strengthened their presence in the south, particularly in Daraa.

This being the case, the government and the army benefited from the ceasefire.

Opposition forces found this arrangement restrictive, while those cooperating with Al Nusra were frequently targeted by both the Syrian armed forces and their Russian allies, providing air cover for operations.

The problem is, of course, that Al Nusra has deployed fighters across Syria, from the Syrian ceasefire line on the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights to the suburbs of the capital, and Nusra and its taqfiri allies control the entire northwestern Idlib province.

Among the taqfiris cooperating with Al Nusra are the 33 US Central Intelligence Agency “vetted” groups that Washington claims are “moderates”, although most share the ideology and practices of both Al Nusra and Daesh.

Nusra is also present in the sector of Aleppo held by mainly taqfiri insurgents. This makes these insurgents legitimate targets for the army and Russian bombers.

US Secretary of State John Kerry admitted that it has been more difficult than expected to distinguish Nusra from “moderate” opposition groups.

Furthermore, US army Colonel Steve Warren, spokesman for the US mission in Iraq, observed that “it’s primarily Al Nusra [that] holds Aleppo, and of course, Al Nusra is not part of the cessation of hostilities”.

He may have exaggerated on this point, but his statement amounted to confirmation that Al Qaeda’s Syrian branch, Al Nusra, is one of the main groups controlling eastern Aleppo.

Furthermore, Al Nusra has convinced Syrian Free Army factions to join in attacks on government forces, including a weekend shelling that killed 86, the vast majority in government residential districts.

Violations by free army units are, naturally, ignored by the US and the Western powers who continue to cry foul over Syrian army and Russian air attacks on Al Nusra-bolstered forces.

In the northeast, Kurdish and Syrian army forces in Qamishli clashed, with the Kurds, seizing government installations in the town centre, although there had been relatively peaceful coexistence over the past five years.

The Kurds have been encouraged by the presence of 50 US Special Forces within their ranks and the decision by President Barack Obama to increase this deployment to 300, with the aim of providing muscle for an assault on Daesh’s capital, Raqqa, and of denying the government the triumph of liberating the city from the cult.

The Kurds are, however, reluctant to do Obama’s bidding unless they are accompanied by a credible Sunni force, as Raqqa is a Sunni city.

In response to Syrian army-Russian advances against Daesh, the cult has moved against the government-held sector of Deir Ezzor and, lately, seized the Yarmouk suburb of Damascus from Al Nusra, bolstering the Daesh threat to the capital.

Meanwhile, thanks to the ceasefire, humanitarian aid continues to flow to besieged and hard-to-reach towns and villages.

Rastan, in Homs province, has been a recent recipient of food and medical supplies, while hundreds of wounded and elderly people in four besieged towns — Kefraya and Foua, in Idlib province, and Zabadani and Madaya in Damascus countryside were evacuated — finally, after months of wrangling.

In Geneva, the intra-Syrian talks are not going well. The Riyadh-sponsored opposition — considered the “main” group — last week suspended its participation, claiming the ceasefire had ended and the government is refusing to negotiate.

The government delegation continues to meet with UN envoy Staffan de Mistura and has submitted amendments to a constitutional document he submitted during the second round of talks in March.

Neither the US nor Russia are, evidently, prepared to exert pressure on their allies to change their diametrically opposed stands.

The Riyadh-sponsored High Negotiations Committee continues to insist on the early departure of President Bashar Assad, while the government rejects any such possibility.

The ceasefire cannot hold and humanitarian aid deliveries cannot go on unless there is progress in the political talks.

Unfortunately, Washington and its allies continue to insist on regime change before settling on how to end the war and stabilise the country.

This seems to be, as they say, putting the cart before the horse.

They remain fixated on Assad. It is difficult to understand why they are prepared to destroy Syria simply to topple him.

While Syria has had a 36-year alliance with Iran and has long backed Lebanon’s Hizbollah, these connections cannot be the cause of this urge to change the government in Damascus.

Palestine’s Hamas, Islamic Jihad and Popular Front resistance groups, once based in Damascus, no longer pose serious threats to Israel.

A few years ago, the European Union was set to reach an association agreement with Syria, following its adoption of a free market economy. At that time, Europe was not deterred by Damascus’ political baggage and the US did not object to cooperation.

The Syrian war has to come to an end, but the powers involved have not made up their minds on when.

This is long overdue. The longer the war continues, the more deadly and destructive it is and the more Syrians flee their country and neighbouring places of refuge and seek sanctuary in an unwelcoming Europe.

 

Furthermore, unless there is a concerted effort by the Syrian army and armed opposition factions to defeat and oust Daesh and Al Nusra, this region, Europe and Asia are at risk of being infected by their brand of taqfirism.

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