The war to end all wars

Judging from previous modern experiences in Iraq, one is prone to argue that winning peace in Iraq will be a far greater challenge than winning the war on the battlefield. 

What happens once Daesh is pushed out of northern Iraq?

We need to think of the day after the liberation of Mosul and whether it will herald a new era for Sunni-Shiite reconciliation.

A sticking point in the near future is who will be speaking for the Sunnis.

We all know that Daesh would not have risen the way it did in Mosul were it not for the failure of the national reconciliation process in Iraq. 

Daesh became relevant, in part, because of the alienation of Iraqi Sunni, caused by the sectarian policies carried out by successive Shiite-dominated governments.

The rise of Daesh in Mosul is a symptom, rather than the root cause, of a deeper crisis.

Iraqi Sunnis saw in the government a mechanism for their alienation and exclusion. Short of setting up a representative government for all citizens, Iraqi ruling elites will run the risk of creating the very same conditions that have produced radicalism.

And yet, putting Iraq back together again remains a far-fetched goal. 

Realising this objective hinges on the ability of the winning side in the current battle to offer the Sunnis an acceptable representation. 

Besides, the Kurds — who yearn for full independence — will not settle for less than a good deal that discourage them from secession.

It is true that the Shiites are cooperating with the Kurds to push Daesh out of Mosul, but once the goal is achieved the deep-seated mistrust between the two sides will come to the surface.

The challenge of stabilising Iraq falls largely on the new American administration, which should make clear that the liberation of the second largest city in Iraq should usher in a new era of national reconciliation. 

There are clear indications that there could be sectarian retribution and violence once Mosul is liberated.

Once the dust of the battle is settled, tough questions will come to light. To be sure, the Iraqi government is not the one who calls the shots. Many critics accused Iran of having its own scheme and that the Iraqi government is nothing but a puppet. 

The American administration is not oblivious to this fact. But thus far, it seemed complicit with the tactics used by Iran and the latter’s bid to control Iraq. 

President Barack Obama who made the necessity to strike a deal with Iran his legacy, is less likely to set a price tag on Iran’s negative interference in Iraq and beyond. 

Moreover, the US-led coalitions tend to be good on the battlefield but not at bringing about peace. We have seen this in Afghanistan, Libya and Iraq.

This time around, the international community should face reality. 

Bringing Iraqi Sunnis back into the political fold entails even-handed post-conflict arrangements. 

Iraqi Shiites need to be told that the only way to stabilise the country is by accepting to share power. 

For this war on Daesh to end all wars in Iraq, the international community should press Iran to act in good faith for the benefit of all Iraqis. 

It also needs to understand that the victory in Mosul happens thanks to the international coalition led by the US. Therefore, Iraqi Shiites owe the international community, and not vice versa.

That being said, signals coming from various Shiite groups are discouraging.

To be sure, it is not too late to fix the situation. Failure to do so will be costly. The worst-case scenario can come true if the Iraqi government solves the problem in the same fashion that had generated radical groups like Daesh.

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