Trump’s Israel policy

Amid growing concern about what US President Donald Trump is up to with regard to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is set to meet Trump tomorrow. 

This meeting will set the tone for new Israeli-American relations, expected to warm up after Obama’s era.

The two leaders can develop a common ground on a number of issues, yet I suspect that Trump will not give Netanyahu a blank cheque to do whatever he sees fit vis-à-vis the Palestinians.

Surprisingly, Trump is moving, slowly but surely, closer to the political centre on some policies on Israel.

The first contentious issue is linked to Trump’s electoral pledge to move the American embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem.

Many right-wing Israelis believe that such a move is possible and that Trump is the president who is going to deliver on his electoral pledge.

But this is easier said than done. 

To be sure, a step like this would complicate America’s already difficult situation in the Arab world.

It would embarrass key allies and could trigger a crisis that will be difficult to defuse.

Hence, Netanyahu himself may not be keen to press Trump on this issue in particular, and the latter may only pay lip service to his electoral pledge.

Many in his administration advised him to take it easy and back off from this earlier pledge.

Settlements constitute the second burning issue on which Trump and the Israelis may differ.

The Israeli right was upbeat about the advent of Trump, and many among the right-wing circles interpreted Trump’s victory as an endorsement of the Israeli government’s policy of intensifying settlement activities.

Added to this, there is a tussle between Netanyahu and Naftali Bennett, the Home Party leader and education minister who seeks to succeed Netanyahu and, therefore, tries to weaken him.

His interpretation of Trump’s victory is radical. To him, the idea of a two-state solution is no longer viable and therefore Israel should annex huge swathes of the West Bank.

Not long ago, the Israeli Knesset passed a new law to retroactively legalise the land grab of private Palestinian land.

The new law was proposed by Bennett’s party.

Trump cannot be oblivious to the ramifications of this new law, and he may not agree with the Israeli government on the issue of settlements.

In other words, Trump’s Israel policy might not be that different from the one adopted by previous administration.

The United States is still committed to the survival and security of the state of Israel, but the tone of the relationship will be different.

Besides, the current administration is closer to Israel’s view of Iran as a source of threat to the regional stability.

Both leaders are expected to reach a common ground on a tougher US policy towards Iran. Netanyahu is most likely to agree with Trump on the policy on Iran.

Trump may not dismantle the nuclear deal with Iran, but he will call for tightening its enforcement and for scrutinising Tehran’s compliance with the deal.

[email protected]