A game changer

Two recent developments are most likely to plunge Turkey into the fight against Daesh. First, Ankara granted permission for the United States to use two Turkish air bases for bombing Daesh in Syria. This particular development means that the level of coordination between Washington and Ankara is getting stronger. Second, the Turkish forces are taking on the militants inside the Syrian border. Undoubtedly, the Turkish role could be a decisive one given the proximity of Turkey, which could provide the United States with more sorties and better intelligence. 

It remains to be seen, however, whether the new coordination between Ankara and Washington will have a far-fetched consequences on the survival of Syrian President Bashar Assad’s regime. Although US President Barack Obama made it perfectly clear that his country is focusing on Daesh rather than the regime, Ankara may find itself in a different confrontation in weeks to come. For years, Turkey and the US have been at odds with regard to the Syrian crisis. 

While Turkey seeks to topple the regime, the US has opted for a different course. Obama’s insistence on the presence of a “moderate” opposition as a requirement for getting rid of Assad has been widely seen as a support for the regime and its allies.

The situation is also more complicated with many in the West pointing fingers at Turkey’s role in the Syrian crisis and the rise of Daesh. Many observers in the West argue that Turkey has become a vital conduit for Daesh recruits who come from the foreign countries. Ankara’s seeming unwillingness to intercept the flow of foreign fighters joining the terror group has led many to suspect that Turkey has ulterior motives in Syria.

And yet, Turkey has been clear on the sequence of events. To Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the survival of the Assad regime and the support of Iran and Hizbollah have been the key reason for the emergence of Daesh. Hence, the Turkish government argues that if the West is serious about eliminating Daesh it should complement this effort by toppling the Syrian regime.

While Turkey is a member of NATO and a close ally of the US, the two countries’ priorities in Syria are not aligned. Turkey believes that dealing with its own restive Kurdish population is what matters most for its own national security. Over the past few years, Turkey has not interfered militarily in the Syrian crisis even in Kobani when the West looked at it to do something against Daesh.

However, over the past few days, Ankara has shifted course and executed a different foreign policy more in line with the US’ objectives, thus becoming an active partner in the US-led coalition against Daesh. Turkey will work on securing a buffer zone, an objective it has demanded for long as a means to put more pressure on the Assad regime. It seems the US has to agree on a buffer zone as a quid pro quo for Turkey joining the war effort against Daesh. There may be some logistical difficulties in securing the buffer zone and it is not clear yet what role the US will play to that end.

The new deal between Turkey and the US can be a game changer. To be sure, the American air strikes will be far more effective than before because the air bases in Turkey are very close to the Syrian borders. It means that the US can respond faster to intelligence information.

Turkey’s entry into the war will not be devoid of other challenges. It may step up its attacks on Kurdish nationalist groups, which are aligned with the Americans in the fight against Daesh. Some of these Kurdish groups are considered as terrorists by the Turkish government. Hence, Turkey may crack down on all terrorists without distinction, a process that may disturb the US in weeks to come.