End of uneasy relationship

All those surprised by the Britons’ decision to exit the European Union, should know that Britain has always been eurosceptic. 

Even when the country boarded the European ship in 1973, it was not at ease with the overall idea. Disagreements between Britain and its partners across the English Channel came to the fore from the get-go, but peaked over the process of integration. 

To be sure, the 43-year membership of Britain in the EU has been nothing but a turbulent partnership.

After the referendum, all sides now want Britain’s departure from the EU to be pushed through. It will take two years for the divorce between the United Kingdom and the European Union to be finalised, and during this time, uncertainty will prevail.

The outcome of the UK’s referendum on leaving the EU reflects how deeply divided the Brits were over this issue. Therefore, the most important task is to assure the people that this divorce will not worsen economic conditions and living standards. 

The UK cannot afford division from within at this important juncture. Scotland voted in favour of remaining in the EU and, therefore, it may hold a second referendum on independence. Northern Ireland may also opt to leave the UK. 

It is not as if the British government is not aware of the consequences of a Brexit. Indeed, British politicians know very well that their country had been moving away from the union in slow motion. 

According to Michael Geary from the Washington-based Wilson Centre, “limited initial British appetite for a federal Europe. Wilson’s 1975 referendum feint. Thatcher’s budget rebate. Major’s refusal to sign up to the Schengen Area. Brown’s convoluted rejection of the euro. Blair’s rupture over the US invasion of Iraq (and an EU-wide foreign policy). And Cameron’s veto of the EU’s fiscal compact” all show that Britain was on a slope out of the union for a long time.

Soon, the British people will have to digest the consequences of their break-up decision. David Cameron will not be the only victim of the Brexit, the head of the Labour Party — Jeremy Corbyn — is also facing a revolt within the ranks of his own party. Although Corbyn said that he would contest any new leadership election, chances are high that his rivals will get him this time.

Cameron made it perfectly clear that the process of withdrawal from the EU will only start in October, when a new prime minister steps in. This can be troublesome. 

EU Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker wants negotiations to start as soon as possible, arguing that any undue delays could only aggravate the uncertainty that has been triggered.

While the divorce is not tactical, two matters need closer scrutiny. 

First, is the unity of the UK, and this begs the question of whether Scotland and Northern Ireland will leave Britain to join the EU. Also, it is not yet clear if the new government, expected to be sworn in around October, can deal with the process of withdrawal in an orderly fashion. Cameron will continue heading a caretaker government and this can be of some relief to many sceptics. 

Second, Brexit may trigger other countries to follow suit. It remains to be seen if the EU can avoid a crisis in the wake of Britain’s decision to leave the union.

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