Why war on Iran should be avoided

Pressure is mounting on Iran from many directions. The main source of incitement, however, is Israel. Israel has been campaigning against Iran for a very long time.

Painting Iran as the main existential threat for Israel has served more than one purpose. It helped distract attention away from the core issue, which is the Arab-Israeli conflict, the ongoing occupation, Jerusalem, the disastrous situation in Gaza, the occupied Syrian Golan Heights and the situation in South Lebanon. The Israeli conduct in the region since it was created seventy years ago has been widely seen as the main source of instability and violence, not just by the victims of the continuing aggression and its tragic consequences, but worldwide as well.

Diverting attention has not only been convenient for Israel, but it has also been effective with growing positive anti-Iran campaign echo in the US, as well as in the region.

Clearly many developments in the region, the Arab states in particular, have been helping the trend, the rise of Hizbollah in Lebanon, Iranian role in both Iraq and Syria and the war in Yemen.

Against oceans of overwhelming distortion and massive media misrepresentation of the truth, it is quite difficult to argue that all such regional developments are in fact direct consequences of the Zionist onslaught in the region and the continuing Israeli aggression. Israel’s constant rejection of any effort to resolve its conflict with the Palestinians and the other Arab neighbours is directly and primarily responsible for the continuing instability, violence and chaos.

The nuclear deal between Iran and the five permanent Security Council members, plus Germany, was hailed as a successful effort to neutralise any possibility in the near future of any Iranian threat to any one, or of Iran developing nuclear weapons.

But Israel has since been intensively opposing the deal and campaigning for its abrogation. It seems the new administration in Washington is in favour.

Although there were US efforts before, under the Bush administration — not that successful — to create an alliance between Israel and moderate Arab states against Iran, the current situation is much more serious and quite frightening.

The concern is not just for the cancellation of the nuclear deal, which is bad enough, it is rather the rising belligerency.

Israel has been openly pushing various US administrations to attack Iran, or to support an Israeli attack on Iran. But now and with the Israeli hopes that the seven-year war in Syria would bleed both Iran and Hizbollah to their certain death, dashed; indeed bringing both enemies closer to Israel’s border, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is pushing much harder for another military adventure, the devastation of which is unlikely to spare any part in the region, Israel included.

Wars do not solve problems but create ones. The totally unjustified and unnecessary Iraq war 15 years ago has created enough problems for the region to suffer from for many more years to come. That is on top of massive destruction and loss of life. It left the victors with their painful problems too. 

The same applies to Afghanistan, Yemen, Syria, Libya as well as Israel’s wars on Lebanon and Gaza. The same also applies to the Iraq, Iran war and the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait, that only lead to more wars, regional fragmentation, hatred and deeper hostility.

But what may come next is even more alarming. An attack on Iran, whether with or without American participation, will incinerate the entire region. It will surely unleash lethal forces from Iran, Lebanon, Israel, Syria and the Gulf region.

Conventional military calculations do not count any more with modern warfare. May be a coalition of forces against Iran would be seen as strong enough and large enough to ensure successful outcome: Defeating and destroying Iran. 

But as was the case with Iraq in 2003, the swift military victory against Iraq and the occupation of Baghdad was just the beginning rather than the end of the harder to deal with war, and the longer war that is yet to end. The dire consequences of that war were severe for Iraq and its people but they were also severe and highly costly in blood and treasure for the victors too.

Calculations for a war plan to defeat and destroy Iran may prove feasible in pure military terms and, like in Iraq, could achieve swift results, but only a hollow victory. The destruction will be massive everywhere and it will be felt far beyond the region. Such a war if happens, will leave losers and no winners. It will bring back the calendar of history many decades back. It will not be like anything we, in this region, have seen before.

It is the duty of the UN and the responsible world powers to join effort to prevent irresponsible, destructive and unjustified wars of choice and blatant aggression.