New generation of issues ahead

The impact of the few active crises in our region tends to overshadow a long list of many other issues pending settlement for decades.

Today, most concern, both in and outside our region, is drawn in the direction of the war in Syria, the war in Iraq, the war in Libya and the war in Yemen, whilst the violence, aggression, occupation and oppression continue unabated and are overlooked in other areas.

A case in point is Israel’s continuing military occupation.

Under normal circumstances, an attack by the powerful air force of a country on an exposed farming town across the border from that country would be major breaking news. However, that no longer appears to be the case.

Last Sunday, supposedly in retaliation for a rocket fired from Gaza Strip at Israel, which caused no damage or injuries, Israeli fighter planes launched heavy air strikes on the city of Beit Hanoun, destroying a water tower, hitting 30 other targets causing more damage and injuring four people. 

The attack did not catch any of the attention it normally would, and was lightly reported in the media.

This is just one example out of dozens.

It is commonly believed, indeed hoped, that the defeat of Daesh in Syria and Iraq, mainly, will pave the way for some kind of peace and stability in these two countries.

This is not at all realistic.

In both countries the emergence of Daesh was a consequence of deeper crisis. It developed very fast and, as a result, became so dominant that the other components of the Syria and Iraq crises were dwarfed. 

However, if the removal of Daesh were to happen soon, it would only re-expose the real causes of the raging conflicts in many parts of the region.

The war with Daesh is far from over.

Daesh fighters continue to control large areas in Syria and Iraq. They continue to fight effectively and fiercely. Despite their many territorial and other losses, they are still defiant and relentless, and nowhere near ready to concede defeat.

Their strongholds in Raqqa, Syria, and Mosul, Iraq, are too far for the armies in these two countries to liberate. 

The defeat of Daesh, however, whenever that may happen, will only unveil a host of other equally complex problems, putting the authorities in Baghdad and Damascus before daunting challenges and barely manageable tasks.
Dormant tensions with the Kurds, again in both countries — leaving aside the Turkish and the Iranian dimensions of the problem — are already turning into military confrontations. 

Recently, fighting erupted in Hasakeh, in northeast Syria, between Kurdish and Syrian armed forces, and it continues. 

Hasakeh is not the only significant location the Kurds may wish to take control of as part of their aspiration for a future independent territorial entity.

The US is opposed to the Syrian action against Hasakeh Kurds and if the situation is not contained, any additional fighting may involve major superpowers, with disastrous complications even before the battle against Daesh is anywhere near its end.

Similarly, in Iraq, fresh tensions have been building up since the Daesh onslaught on the Nineveh province two-and-a-half years ago.

In both countries Kurdish forces played important roles in liberating towns, villages and land from Daesh occupation. 

Supposedly, Kurdish fighters were operating side by side with the Iraqi and Syrian forces to counter a common enemy. But their advances in northern Syria and in Iraq were seen as their own gains, not only because they were the liberators, but also because many of the liberated areas were supposed to be part of any future Kurdistan.

The Kurdistan Regional Government existed in north Iraq for years, acting as if semi- independent even though still within the framework of the Iraqi national state. 

Many contentious issues had been postponed for future discussion, but the vacuum created by the sudden collapse of the Iraqi army units, particularly in Nineveh and Mosul, in front of the Daesh attackers offered the Kurdish forces the golden opportunity to advance into the “disputed” areas and create new facts on the ground, while, at the same time, appearing as if helping the Iraqi army against Daesh, which is also true.

It is hard to tell at this stage if it is going to be a straightforward matter for the Kurdish forces to withdraw to their original lines once the Daesh Iraq chapter is over.

Their combative role, recognised for its effectiveness and positive results, will necessarily embolden their future negotiation positions.

The same situation may be replicated in Syria, albeit with much more serious complications, primarily the Turkish factor.

The Kurds in Syria also hope to be able to control the Kurdish areas as a prerequisite for declaring an autonomous entity and perhaps independence afterwards. 

Some factions have already declared self-rule in areas under their control while the Damascus government is entirely engaged elsewhere. 

Both the Syrian government and Turkey oppose any such trends, to the point of using force to prevent it.

The major battle against Daesh was fought and won by Kurdish forces in Kobani and Tal Abiad. Recently, Manbij — not entirely Kurdish — was liberated by the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces, which is an alliance between Kurdish, Arab, Assyrian, Turkmen, Armenian and Circassian forces.

At this stage of the war in Syria, the Syrian government would naturally welcome any effort if directed against Daesh and the other terrorist groups fighting against the regime, provided that such effort does not translate into a final gain for the contributors, be they Syrian Kurds or others, as that may imply eventual partition.

Turkish statements affirming support for the unity of the Syrian territory specifically refer to possible Kurdish separation schemes.

This all means that once Daesh is done away with, the other issues will erupt and plunge the region once again in fresh crises.

The Arab-Israeli conflict, which many naively believed, or wanted to deliberately and maliciously believe, was permanently marginalised, is yet to re-emerge, too. 

Conflicts of such nature, where there is injustice and denied rights, where people are terrorised by a most brutal and illegal force out of their own land to be replaced by invaders, settlers and occupiers, and where those same victims of one of the most flagrant conspiracies in recent history remain constantly under attack, do not just fade away and disappear.

No amount of time, deliberate effort or distraction will make any people forego their natural rights, generation after generation. 

The Arab-Israeli conflict is the main source of all the trouble. Until redressed, this injustice will continue to spawn war and conflicts. 

For peace to finally take root, all issues have to be discussed seriously, with the rights and aspirations of all peoples taken into consideration in any settlement. 

This indeed is still a long way off, but to travel the distance one must first start.