A new era in Saudi Arabia

The departure of King Abdullah Bin Abdulaziz of Saudi Arabia last Friday has saddened the Arab world; indeed much of the rest of the world.

Delegations from all over the globe headed towards the Saudi capital, Riyadh, to offer condolences to the Saudi authorities and, as usual, to extend good wishes to the newly declared king, Salman Bin Abdulaziz.

Although the demise of the Saudi king was by no means sudden, as for quite a while he had been suffering from age-related health issues, his death is deeply unsettling and quite alarming to Arab and world leaders alike, coming at a time when the entire Arab region is passing through difficult times of war, turmoil and instability.

Traditionally, the role of the Saudi kingdom has been vital in and outside the region, and that explains the alarm the passing away of the Saudi king is causing.

Even in normal conditions, the political stability of Saudi Arabia is often seen as a vital prerequisite for the political well-being of the entire area. Imagine its role under the prevailing abnormal circumstances in many parts of the Arab world.

Despite the regional challenges all around, it is unlikely that the change at the top in Saudi Arabia will cause major changes of policy. That was not the case before and there is no reason for it to happen now.

King Salman has been part of the policy-making apparatus all along. He was close to the late king and he is well versed in all important matters, internal and external. The challenges, however, are already huge and mounting.

Next door is the very uncertain situation in Yemen, where the state is collapsing. If it is accurate that the Ansarullah, better known as the Houthi movement, now in control of most of the country, is an extension of the Iranian influence, that must be specifically troubling for the Saudis.

And there are the challenges in Syria, Lebanon and Iraq, where Iran is deeply involved as well.

The Saudi position is of a crucial nature in dealing with all these countries’ situations. It is equally crucial with respect to the Arab-Israeli conflict, with the Arab Peace Initiative, originally an idea of the late Saudi king, still on the table. 

But the rise of new brands of terrorist extremists claiming Islamic religious identity, Daesh mainly, now metamorphosed into a highly potent fighting force that poses a credible threat to many parts of the region, is of urgent priority, not only to the Saudi kingdom and the Arab states but to major world powers as well.

All such issues deserve policy revisions, fresh methods of Arab coordination and new plans for collective Arab action.

Therefore, and while change in the traditional Saudi policies in the passive sense could be worrying and not desirable, a revitalisation of current policies with the intention of reappraising and examining them, coinciding with the new era of King Salman may be opportune and absolutely necessary.

The Arab summits, now mere routine and not substantial in any meaningful sense, are growingly losing their value and effect. Mostly they are no more than mirror images of the Arab League’s total impotence in handling any of the pressing Arab issues.

Perhaps and once the Saudi government is back to normal business under the direction of the new monarch, the Saudis could lead a series of discrete consultations with the remaining stable Arab countries, beginning with the immediate region, the GCC, Jordan and Egypt, with the option of expanding further at a later stage, to assess the very critical Arab situation, to define and eliminate failed past experiences and to come up with fresh ideas and novel approaches on how to move forward if the Arab nation’s disintegration is to be checked and eventually reversed.

There are at least three Arab countries that are falling apart, and it is hard to imagine how the chaotic situations in Syria, Libya and Yemen will end.

The problem is that the political decay is bound to spread and seriously infect the other countries that so far managed to stay out of the creeping trouble.

That may not take a long time. Already the war raging in the three named countries is spilling over their borders into neighbouring states in various, though equally lethal, forms.

For the last three and a half years, Jordan has had to cope with large numbers of refugees from Syria and Iraq, which put enormous strain on the already strained Jordanian economy.

But that is the least of the Jordanian worries when compared to implied security concerns and threats, currently more evident in Iraq, where more than one third of the country is under the control of Daesh, and in Lebanon, where border wars and internal sectarian violence is recurring at an alarming speed.

There have also been recent warning signals, in the form of a suicide attack on a Saudi police post on the Iraqi-Saudi border, with serious casualties.

Political chaos in one’s neighbourhood is like fire in the next door apartment; it does not respect borders or recognise limits.

Ongoing regional and international efforts to deal with the trouble are only producing modest results. Nowhere in the war zones can any meaningful progress be detected.

In Syria, Libya and Yemen, the situation is regressing.

The air bombardment by an international coalition committed to supporting the efforts of the region’s countries in their war against terrorism is barely holding the offensive, and is mostly unable to cause real retreat or even credible weakening of the extremists. That is one more reason for revising old methods and reconsidering failed policies.

One hopes that the main concerned Arab states, for a start, have enough reasons to get together before the March scheduled date of the Arab summit with the new Saudi king to discuss the need to formulate a new Arab strategy in view of the seriousness of the situation.