‘Final outcome of Kerry’s peace mission’

Reports from Israel citing Western sources claim that the Obama administration is concerned that the Israeli-Palestinian peace talks could soon collapse. (The Times of Israel, March 23, 2014).

Actually, and as clear right from the beginning, there are many signs indicating that the talks are reaching the inevitable dead-end.

Recently, Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas held a meeting with US President Barack Obama at the White House. Many expected some positive results from the important meeting, on the grounds that Abbas would not be in a position to disappoint the US president by rejecting his demand that talks continue beyond their 9-month time limit, due to expire by the end of April.

The news about the White House meeting remains vague and therefore one cannot be certain about what exactly happened.

The Times of Israel, however, quoting an Israel TV report citing unidentified American sources, says that Abbas indeed rejected the framework document that was presented to him during his Washington visit.

The Times report says that Abbas presented his host with three nos: no to recognition of Israel as a Jewish state; no to abandoning the right of return; and no to ending any Palestinian claims once a settlement was concluded.

Senior PA negotiator Saeb Erekat denied that there was any framework. His reference to the substance of the White House discussions does not really reflect a positive exchange. It is not unlikely, therefore, that Abbas was indeed reluctant to endorse the three said demands seen by most Palestinians as detrimental to their basic rights.

Erekat told the Guardian on March 18, 2014: “Contrary to what people expected — that we would come out of this meeting with an official American proposal, or document — it has not happened. We’re still at the stage of discussing ideas,” Erekat said.

Describing the Obama-Abbas meeting as “candid” and “difficult”, Erekat added that the Palestinian delegation showed the US president an “ugly” map showing 10,589 housing settlement units he said were built on Palestinian-claimed territory since the negotiations began less than eight months ago.

There is no question that Abbas did express to Obama his gravest concern over the continued Israeli surge in settlement construction and expansion, as if there were no connection between the talks and the territorial issues they are meant to resolve.

Abbas expressed also concern over Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s reluctance to release the last group of Palestinian prisoners, due to be freed on March 29, as agreed at the resumption of peace talks.

Had there been agreement on a settlement construction freeze and assurance that the last batch, of a group of 128 prisoners, would be released, it looks certain that the PA president would have agreed to extend talks beyond April.

On one, the prisoner release, there might still be some hope, though scant, and that alone may be sufficient for Abbas to agree to extend talks for another period, while on the other, a real settlement freeze, it is absolutely unlikely that Israel would commit to any form of freeze.

Netanyahu wants Abbas to agree to extend the talks without presenting any demands, and without Israel offering any incentive, except perhaps the possible release of the remaining 26 prisoners.

Netanyahu is attaching new demands to their release. He wants the US to press Abbas to agree to extend the talks for another year, not because the Israeli prime minister expects the extension to yield results, but just to guarantee that Abbas will not head to the UN with the intention of filing lawsuits against Israel at the International Criminal Court while the talks are officially in progress. 

For Israel that is an advantage of the extension.

Several news reports from Israel agree that Netanyahu would release the prisoners if Abbas agreed to the one-year extension. But there are other aggravating complications.

One is the additional settlement construction plans that have been announced this week. The other is the vicious attack in Jenin and the brutal murder of three Palestinians by Israeli forces.

It must be a deliberate Israeli move to place additional obstacles in the way of a possible agreement every time Netanyahu suspects that there could be one.

Once the negotiations on one of the most significant disputes in recent history, involving the destiny of more than 12 million Palestinians, is reduced to haggling over the already promised release of 26 prisoners (out of more than 10,000 other Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails who are never part of the debate), one can imagine how serious the extended negotiations are likely to be.

Unfortunately, the entire Kerry mission is gradually emptied of any meaningful content.

The mission started with the big promise of resolving the conflict in its entirety within the set time limit of nine months. When that turned difficult, primarily due to Israel’s intransigence, the goal posts were moved back, with the emphasis shifting to a framework; a mere vision on how a future settlement would look like.

That proved difficult too, even when Israel was offered the privilege of just agreeing to a non-binding framework.

What is left is just an extension of the talks to delay for a while an inevitable admission of failure.

Admittedly, the Israeli position has been all along consistent. Israel wants the talks to continue but simultaneous with the settlement expansion on the Palestinian land, and it wants the Palestinians to agree to a set of prohibitive Israeli demands if the talks are to make any progress: recognise Israel as the national home of the Jewish people and abandon the right of return of the Palestinian refugees.

In the meantime, it wants to maintain the siege on Gaza, bomb Gaza at whim, raid the Palestinian camps and towns in hot pursuit of wanted youth in the West Bank, evict Palestinians from their homes and destroy them, build more settlements, confiscate more land, routinely desecrate the holy places in Jerusalem, humiliate the Palestinian Authority by a variety of means, and unleash the racist settlers against defenceless Palestinians and their property.

It is unlikely that US Secretary of State John Kerry is not at this point aware of the impossibility of his mission.

Clearly he has not been able to convince the Israelis to make any move, however symbolic, towards the Palestinians.

On the other hand, he must be equally aware that the Palestinians could not be squeezed any further. They have nothing more to offer, and the little they are asking for is more than reasonable.

At this desperate juncture, all that is left for Washington is to buy more time by extending the talks.

No one in his right mind would expect much from that as the prospects and the circumstances that led to the failure so far are not going to change, except probably in the wrong direction.

It is too early to assume that there will be no extension. Despite the many odds, a few more months of additional talks might suit all parties and prevent sour relations with Washington.

Both the Palestinians and the Israelis would do their utmost to remain in Washington’s good books. This is the final outcome of Kerry’s peace mission.