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Trump’s ‘gut feeling’ on North Korea

Jan 31,2019 - Last updated at Jan 31,2019

The US intelligence community now says that North Korea is "unlikely to give up" its nuclear capability, an euphemism for saying that Pyongyang is going to keep its nuclear arsenal, come what may, thus disputing the optimism expressed by President Donald Trump that he is likely to succeed in disarming North Korea when he holds his next summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, slated for the end of February.

US National Intelligence Director Dan Coats, and other US intelligence chiefs, submitted their findings on Pyongyang's nuclear stance to the Senate on Tuesday. In retrospect, it does not take a high intelligence officer in the US, or anywhere in the world for that matter, to come to the obvious conclusion that North Korea is not about to relinquish its nuclear capability in exchange for the relaxation of punitive economic sanctions being imposed upon it by Washington.

Anybody in their right mind would come to the same conclusion, even though President Trump remains hopeful against great odds that he will succeed in disarming Pyongyang of its nuclear weapons in due course.

The only remaining logical conclusion could be that North Korea could be persuaded to accept "partial denuclearisation" in exchange for warmer relations with the US and its allies, in return for lifting the existing sanctions on it.

So why President Trump remains sanguine on this point despite all the evidence to the contrary, and clings to the make-belief conviction that he is not going to succeed in persuading North Korea to disarm itself completely of all its nuclear weapons.

President Trump must now lower the level of his expectations to what could be more reasonable and workable. Otherwise, the US will end up with nothing, and will drift again to the military confrontation level that could easily escalate to nuclear weapons.

At the end of the day, President Trump not only disputes the findings and conclusions of US intelligence, but also challenges them. Trump rests his case on his "gut feeling", while the intelligence committee bases their conclusions on hard evidence. 

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