Abrogation of diplomatic accord

President Donald Trump dropped his much anticipated bombshell on the Iranian nuclear deal struck in 2015 between Iran, on one hand, and the US, Germany, France, Russia and China, on the other, by announcing US’ withdrawal from it.

There were speculations that Trump may change his stance on the deal after all the leaders of his Western allies made a last ditch effort to convince Trump not to walk away on the deal, given the fact that there is no evidence that Tehran had not lived up to the letter of the accord, if not its spirit.

On closer look, though, there is a determined effort to put in place a damage control mechanism that would still keep Iran on board in return for the other Western countries' commitment to the deal.

All available evidence suggests that Germany, France, Britain, Russia and China will remain faithful to the deal despite the US withdrawal from it. Under such a scenario, the deal would still be kept alive, albeit without the US involvement or support.

If this is going to be the case, the US abrogation of its commitment to the deal would make little difference at the end of the day, as long as Iran and other parties to the deal remain committed to it.

This would be the most sanguine scenario that could emerge in the wake of Trump's decision to withdraw from the agreement, but this may not last for too long as Iran would be tempted to walk away from it at one stage or another in the future, depending on its national interests.

The parties can buy time for now, but not for the long haul.