What after the Israeli-Syrian clash?

Thursday’s Israeli attack in Syria could be part of a rebalanced power dynamic in the region.

During the Syrian crisis, Israel had launched several strikes against Syrian targets it claimed were Hizbollah convoys and personnel

The recent attack is one of the few that Israel actually declared with sirens in Israel, possibly because of the consequences, including debris from a rocket in the northern Jordanian city of Irbid.

Syria’s reaction, launching missiles and a strong statement from the military, is entirely new and suggests that Syria had support for this response. 

Experts say the surface-to-air S-200 (SA-5) missiles used by the Syrian army were unlikely to shoot down the Israeli jets, although their S300 missiles could have been more effective.

These Russian-made Syrian missiles meant Israel had to use its Arrow 3 missile defence system for the first time to destroy what the Israeli army described as a ballistic threat.

This was not the first time that Israeli jets conducted a strike in Syria, but it was the first time they faced a strong military reaction. 

This could be a turning point, and Israel could become more cautious in carrying out such attacks.

It was not only the military response from Syria that was new. The Russian foreign ministry summoned Israel’s ambassador to Moscow to protest the Israeli raid in Syria.

This is the first time that Russia interferes in this kind of incident. It is especially interesting given that recently, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visited Moscow. The visit does not appear to have had a positive impact on the relations between the two countries.

Russia’s long-term presence in Syria has reshaped the balance of power. This will have implications for several countries, especially Israel, which is not used to asking permission to conduct an attack.

While Russia is not an enemy of Israel’s, it sees Syria as an ally, so Russia’s ongoing presence in the region could have wider impact, including on a regional settlement.

Moscow is likely to engage in all the issues that face the region, including the peace process, so perhaps Russia would like to see this confrontation lead to more constructive negotiations.

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