Turkey’s political scene

Turkey’s military intervention in the north of Syria against PKK is naturally bound to provoke reactions. It comes at a moment of political difficulty that might lead to a new election soon, particularly in view of the failure of coming up with a government.

The recent election ended in a partial loss for the Justice and Development Party (AKP), which prevented it from exclusively running the Turkish political scene.

It put an end to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s dream of transforming Turkey into a system where he personally has all the power.

Many believe that the reason for this loss was Erdogan’s ambiguous role in supporting the groups fighting in Syria or fuelling the chaos in Arab countries, which had a negative impact on Turkish politics, particularly the concept of stability that helped Turkey, in the last decade, attract investments and tourists.

As a result, the Turkish military’s move against PKK, which is involved in fighting Daesh, will have an impact on the Turkish scene and can be expected to pose a threat to Turkey’s stability.

It could also lead to some political changes on the country’s political map; it could be the way voters will see AKP policies or maybe even within the AKP itself as the conflict between Erdogan and his former partners and followers seems to be escalating.

Failure to shape a new Turkish government will also increase the threat to the internal security, and that will influence the results of the coming elections.

Some European countries question Turkey’s role on the border with Syria in fighting Daesh and blocking its resources, or its real intentions in fighting PKK.

According to some young AKP leaders, if the Turkish policy towards Syria and the language adopted in recent times by the Turkish president were the main reasons for the partial loss in elections, then the recent decision to launch a war against the Kurds and put an end to the peace process will definitely influence the next elections.

On another level, the US achieved its goal of using Turkish airbases, particularly Incirlik. While Turkey is expecting to have some no-fly zone, the US denies any deal with Ankara. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg insisted that NATO is not part of any “secure zone” plan or military movement in the north of Syria.

Regionally, Saudi Arabia had a distinctive shift in dealing with the Syrian crisis. The recent Russian-Saudi rapprochement, the Iranian initiative for a political settlement in Syria and the visit of the Syrian foreign minister to Oman prove that there is active movement to reconcile contradictory views.

Ankara seems absent from this political activism aiming to launch a political process, more involved in dealing with internal political and security issues.

The goal of finding answers to the crises in the region should push all protagonists to help the process. Any attempt to block such process will have a serious negative impact on everybody.

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