Old crises winding down, new ones appearing

The Middle East has witnessed some interesting changes recently.

The Syrian crisis, which has been the centre of regional news over the last six years, seems to be settling down, the Gulf countries are losing interest in the war in Yemen and Daesh is very close to being eliminated from the region. 

While the above crises are winding down, interest and concern is growing about the potential independence of the Kurds and its implications on Turkey, Iran, Syria and Iraq, which all oppose vehemently the proposition, to the point of potential clashes.

The Kurdish move is bound to have an impact on the internal politics in each of these above countries, particularly Turkey and Iran.

For Iran, it would be the first time that a serious internal crisis is based on a perilous regional threat.

Also bubbling along are the regional tensions with Qatar, which is increasing in complexity and appears less likely to reach a resolution.

While Egypt, Bahrain, the UAE and Saudi Arabia do not appear to be affected, Qatar is suffering. Still, Qatar is holding its position and refuses to make the changes demanded.

The longer Qatar sticks to its position, the greater the intractability of the situation.

While the Gulf countries are losing interest in Yemen, the war goes on. It appears unlikely to be resolved in any one direction, which logically would suggest that the parties are looking for exit strategies.

The Saudi internal reform strategy is also accelerating, so the Saudis would be seeking a symbolic victory that could help them put an end to this draining war. 

There are also some positive signs in Gaza, as Hamas has turned its focus to national reconciliation.

This change is due to many factors, but mainly to the shift in supporting players.

Turkey and Qatar have been the main players in Gaza, along with the Muslim Brotherhood, but all three have recently been targeted and weakened, so Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the UAE are now working much more closely with Hamas in Gaza.

There are several unresolved conflicts in the region, and the serious risk of more to happen, due to the Kurdish move towards independence and the unpredictable impact of the fight to eliminate Daesh.

While security preparedness and effective deradicalisation strategies can be used to mitigate some of the risks, ethnic and religious separatist movements can only be faced with strong secular states where the rule of law, equality, justice and human rights are applied to all people, regardless of their religion, origin or ethnicity.

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