Back at the top of Arab agenda

After many years of distractions and other priorities, the Palestinian problem is back on the agenda of some Arab countries.

There have been recent confirmations from official source that some Arab countries have been meeting with the Palestinian president to stress the importance of a united Fateh movement. 

What are the sources and reasons for these Arab countries’ sudden interest in ensuring Fateh’s unity?

During the so-called Arab Spring years, there were two allied groups competing for influence in order to implement their version of a resolution in Palestine.

On one side were Qatar, Hamas and Turkey, on the other Jordan, Egypt, UAE and Saudi Arabia.

The settlement of the Palestinian conflict and the Arab Peace Initiative were the key points of conflict between these two groups; it seems that the conflict is once again flaring up.

Observers have recently reported declared and undeclared visits between Jordan, Egypt and Saudi Arabia to coordinate positions between the bloc and the Palestinian Authority. This recent diplomatic activity suggests that the issue is reaching a decisive point, with two current matters to address. 

One is the unity of the Fateh movement by ending conflict amongst its members, the other is the postponement of the municipality elections that President Mahmoud Abbas has called for against the wishes of most of his supporters, including those in the Fateh movement.

The delay of these elections is important to the Jordan-Egypt-Saudi bloc, as Hamas is expected to score massive wins in the West Bank, which would add to its current power base in Gaza. 

Meanwhile, a potential Turkey-Israel agreement, which is reportedly being negotiated, could include development and rebuilding of Gaza.

The new Palestinian reality includes a strong Hamas presence in the West Bank, and after the university elections, where Hamas won overwhelmingly, the municipality elections would be the second stage towards the spread of Hamas domination over the West Bank.

This also foreshadows Turkey’s positioning as a player in Palestine, pushing out other power brokers in the region and having the potential to have negative impacts on them though any coming settlement.

The activation of the Quartet on the Middle East and the pressure put on the Palestinian president can be interpreted as Arab attempts to contain the current Palestinian situation, including the increased Turkish influence there.

This influence is not limited to cooperation with Hamas or just Gaza. The West Bank and the custody of holy places is an important issue, especially in view of the increasingly limited power and influence of Arab countries in Palestine.

As the situation develops, there is growing likelihood that the conflict over the Palestinian issue deepens.

A common ground between the two blocs is almost impossible, so the conflict can only grow from here on, and could shift and change along the way.

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