Regional instability is not in Israel’s interest

According to many analysts, Israel is not only supportive of divisions and conflicts in the region, but is in fact actively working to promote them. The rationale is that such divisions and conflicts divert attention away from Israel’s occupation of Palestinian and Arab territories. The more divided Israel’s neighbours are, the stronger Israel is.

They cite several compelling evidences to build the argument.

One is Israel’s blatant support of South Sudan’s separation, and now the Kurdistan province in Iraq. Another is its indirect privileging and empowerment of Hizbollah at the expense of the Lebanese state; the same is done with respect to other extremist factions in the region. A third is its promotion of the Arab-Iranian misunderstanding and hostility . A fourth is its staunch opposition to the reconciliation of the Palestinian National Authority (PNA) and Hamas.

The latter is extremely telling about Israel’s flawed vision for itself and the region, and its flawed, misguided actions.

Reconciliation between the PNA and Hamas is a good thing for stability and peace, and for future Palestinian-Israeli relations. The PNA, represented by Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, is doing all it can to achieve a durable solution to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.

No agreement can be reached with Israel without Hamas’ blessings. And even if it were reached without Hamas, the latter will be doing all it can to subvert it. This is why the PNA has worked hard during the past several months to reconcile with Hamas, a reconciliation which would bring Hamas on board.

Israel should have blessed this important step. Instead of doing so, however, it started punishing the PNA for the reconciliation by stopping peace talks and freezing the transfer of money which it levies on behalf of the PNA.

And now it has opened a new war front against Hamas in Gaza, whose main victims will be Palestinian civilians — a war which will only privilege and empower Hamas, and weaken the PNA and the chance for Palestinian-Israeli peace.

Whoever persuaded or is persuading the Israelis that divisions and conflicts among its neighbours is in Israel’s interests is mistaken. Divisions and conflicts may bring into the scene some moderates. On the whole, however, they will bring about extremists and hardliners, such as the Islamic State and Hizbollah, whose main aim will be to destabilise the region and topple its regimes, including the Israeli regime itself.

There is no guarantee for Israel that divisions, civil wars and conflicts within individual Arab countries and in the region will not spill over and affect it. As a matter of fact, Israel will be as much, if not more, of a target for the extremists as some of the Arab regimes against which they are fighting, if and when the extremists feel strong enough.

Israel’s security and prosperity in the region will be brought about and augmented by a unified, stable region, not a divided or fragmented one.

Two main factors guarantee Israel’s security and peaceful existence or coexistence in the region: progressive, democratic Arab regimes and a satisfactory solution to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, based on the recognition of full Palestinian rights, including the right to a viable state on all Palestinian lands which Israel has occupied for too long.

It is, one would argue, the chicken and egg parallel: a stable Middle East will bring about durable Palestinian-Israeli peace; but also a durable Palestinian-Israeli peace will bring about a stable Middle East.

Which one materialises first is up to the main players in the region

Let there be no mistake about it, however: instability in the region is not in Israel’s interest.