Although US President Barack Obama is expected to win the next US presidential elections, there is one thing that can still stand in his way and end up frustrating his bid for a second term.
This factor is, of course, the Jewish vote, which can further or frustrate his ambition to win a second term.
Even though the Jewish votes are relatively small in number, their clout and effect reach far. This reality had been proven time and again in US presidential contests.
True, there are many developments going in Obama’s favour, including the steady improvement of the economy and the drop in unemployment rates. The fact that Mitt Romney, the Republican front-runner, keeps on fumbling and remains vulnerable to the attacks against him, during the primaries, by his own party’s other presidential candidates is bound to strengthen the hand of the incumbent president.
Still there remain two basic issues surrounding the US presidential election that can determine its outcome. One is the fact that there was hardly a US president in the recent US history able to reach the White House without the support of the Jewish lobby. This is due in part to the Jewish clout in the mass media and its proven weight in funding presidential elections.
The other, which could be even more decisive for Obama, is that neither Israel nor US Jewish voters would want to vote for a second term for any president. The fear that a second-term president would be free of accountability to the Jews and might wish to take bold and principled positions that are more in harmony with US national interests rather than with Israel’s worries Israel and the US Jewish voters.
American Jews, therefore, would not want to take a chance on Obama, especially after demonstrating at the early stages of his presidency that he has the spine and disposition to differ with Israel on the basic parameters for the resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
To be sure, Obama went back on some issues he stood for during the first few months in the White House, and this became even more obvious as the date for the next presidential elections drew closer.
Of course, there are still many variables whose dynamics can determine the outcome of the next US presidential election, including the way Washington deals with the Iranian nuclear issue and whether it is in to the satisfaction of Tel Aviv.
Given the fact that Obama is perceived by Americans on the right of the political spectrum, as indecisive on Tehran, and that Israel views the Iran nuclear capability as an existential issue, Israel and its supporters in the US would not want to chance it with Obama for four more years on this count either.